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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #303,461
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:40pm Mar 13, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting A-speculator
LOL.. are you really buying it will get to 1.73 this year? tell u the truth, i cannot tell you that, i don't know if anybody here will.. but my view is the same as you since as i said earlier on, we have yet to make any bullish signs in weekly (we still have lower highs and lower lows) and price don't make sudden turn, if we want to go up, the price will shows signs of exhaustion first which it still has not..

I don't know mate, everyone of us has different sums of margin and perhaps some of us swing trade to the said price, i can assure you,...
No no... read again... i am AGAINST the idea of GBPUSD getting up above 1.65 and beyond to 1.73 that some of hour well respected traders here like nAVIN and bbaker seem to think...
i am against... this idea that GBPUSD would get up there... specially with this current market conditions... UK possible UK QE2 in line as UK GDP growth has gone back to stagnant levels... and risk of recessions yet again... and i am definitely seeing the weakness with most of the banks here in UK going to fail... they are going to push Mervyn king for more QE...
I myself fancy more of an idea that GBPUSD would get to 1.50 and 1.45 areas...
Banks are failing in UK and theres no doubt about it... RBS... LLoyds TSB and now Santander and need i say UK relies heavily on the Services Sectory which is dominate by Banks...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #303,462
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:42pm Mar 13, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting bguguen
I dont see any problem with these charts though...
Monthly
Attachment

the trendline is supported by the movements seen here in the weekly chart...
the weekly chart is consolidating on the Upwards trendline with huge confusion over the past few weeks...
some times closing above and closing below... and you can see the candle closes and opens are respecting this upward trend ive drawn in the monthly chart...
Attachment
IMHO we have already broken BELOW unless it manages to recover back above this upward trend and its running...
impossible.
a line takes closing or openings.
not once a closing once an opening.
if that happens, the line is wrong.
i know this even if i don't use trendlines for trading.
better you search something around on the web to read and understand how to draw them if you want to trade them!
  • #303,463
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:44pm Mar 13, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting 0rPhioZ
No, not at all. What you say just reminds me more about incorporating technicals and fundamentals into my strategy without questioning about the reasons why such events happened. The only reason why I discuss that in this forum is only to enrich my knowledge. Hope you don't mind sharing your fundamentals expertise here .
i'm not a fundamental expert mate,sorry.. tell u the truth, i give up trading the fundamentals. the reason for this is the source of the news. How can you get an accurate news without getting it through a news editor? And ever heard of selling the news quote? That's tell you that it's hard to rely on fundamental. Even you can get good source of the fundamentals, how can you gauge the market sentiment with the news release? In 2008, any news that come out will get a bearish pressure from the market no matter it was a good or a bad one.

With that said, the only thing that i can trust right now is the price itself. so i have been studying the technical ever since. there are a lot of technical that you can learn, my favorite is the chaos theory and currently i'm studying financial astrology in conjunction with gann theory.

The most important thing with technicals is Price Action, try to relate all the theories you've learned with the price actions. hope that helps.
  • #303,464
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:46pm Mar 13, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting bguguen
IMHO we have already broken BELOW unless it manages to recover back above this upward trend and its running out of consolidating space now... besides i believe we'll see 1.50 and 1.45 first in GBPUSD before 1.65 and definitely before 1.73 according to my charts... besides the fundamentals are against GBPUSD going up... with UK likely going for a next QE as the banking sector here in UK is yet suffering again, and blaming mervyn king for the lack of support... stagnant growth in GDP for the last 2 quarters and people can argue we stayed above recession...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdw1.gif Size: 19 KB


GBP used to be a safe-haven currency. Maybe investors might turn to it again especially since CHF is now out of the question.

I believe we will have seen the last of the QE. GDP will pick up in Q2 and Q3.

Anyway, we are looking at this long-term.... might take a year or 2. Plenty of up/down side between now and then!

Let's leave the long-term stuff for the weekend!
  • #303,465
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:46pm Mar 13, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting A-speculator
LOL.. are you really buying it will get to 1.73 this year? tell u the truth, i cannot tell you that, i don't know if anybody here will.. but my view is the same as you since as i said earlier on, we have yet to make any bullish signs in weekly (we still have lower highs and lower lows) and price don't make sudden turn, if we want to go up, the price will shows signs of exhaustion first which it still has not..

I don't know mate, everyone of us has different sums of margin and perhaps some of us swing trade to the said price, i can assure you, i'm...
Talking of 1.73
I Think First one Released this rumor
Aug 5, 2011
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post4840543
Quoting egkid
I didn't say Now I say in long term
G/U targeting 1.55 now

Bookmark my post and later will remind u
1.73 G/U

The best part about my system it tell me about the move in early :-)
  • #303,466
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:47pm Mar 13, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting scramble
impossible.
a line takes closing or openings.
not once a closing once an opening.
if that happens, the line is wrong.
i know this even if i don't use trendlines for trading.
better you search something around on the web to read and understand how to draw them if you want to trade them!
  • #303,467
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:49pm Mar 13, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting bguguen
No no... read again... i am AGAINST the idea of GBPUSD getting up above 1.65 and beyond to 1.73 that some of hour well respected traders here like nAVIN and bbaker seem to think...
i am against... this idea that GBPUSD would get up there... specially with this current market conditions... UK possible UK QE2 in line as UK GDP growth has gone back to stagnant levels... and risk of recessions yet again... and i am definitely seeing the weakness with most of the banks here in UK going to fail... they are going to push Mervyn king for more QE...
I myself...
Ahhh... you see, now you are thinking and that will get you into lots of trouble. Let the charts do the talking not your head!

Also your fundamentals need a bit of work. QE in the UK has gone to the banks to shore up their balance sheets to prevent them from failing. Also they have been deleveraging like mad, especially RBS, but that process is not finished yet. Unless we see major defaults in EZ (Ireland, Spain, Italy), I believe they won't fail. UK banks have little exposure to Greece compared to German/French banks.

LTRO is also doing the same thing for the banks and UK banks have also taken part.
  • #303,468
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:49pm Mar 13, 2012 12:49pm
Hi,i am a new member
i just wanted to know is there any site that gives accurate signal every day?
i just wanna make 50 pips a week,is there another solution?
  • #303,469
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:51pm Mar 13, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting scramble
impossible.
a line takes closing or openings.
not once a closing once an opening.
if that happens, the line is wrong.
i know this even if i don't use trendlines for trading.
better you search something around on the web to read and understand how to draw them if you want to trade them!
mate the line is not wrong... on a longer term chart the longer the trendline goes the significance/power of the trendline starts to fade thats why you can see price Poking above it for a breif moment and coming back in again... we can see this ALL THE TIME... maybe its you who needs to learn a bit more huh

The the fact that you see Weekly chart going above a trendline and coming back in the next week is because it is respecting to a trendline Drawn on a monthly chart...
Never has a monthly closed breaking a trendline YET... however if this month were to close now... it'll be the FIRST candle to close breaking the Upwards trendline which is a sign of bearishness... but we have yet to see how this month's candle closes...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdy1.gif Size: 17 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,470
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:55pm Mar 13, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting bbakker
Attachment

GBP used to be a safe-haven currency. Maybe investors might turn to it again especially since CHF is now out of the question.

I believe we will have seen the last of the QE. GDP will pick up in Q2 and Q3.

Anyway, we are looking at this long-term.... might take a year or 2. Plenty of up/down side between now and then!

Let's leave the long-term stuff for the weekend!
Buddy as you can see in that weekly chart... that weekly candle attepted to break below that upwards trend and got rejected... so its still valid... nothing wrong there... in fact if theres anything wrong... its slightly in accurate because that line should be at the low of that weekly candle but hey... i plotted it on the MONTHLY chart... so MT4 aint that good with accuracy but you should get my drift... there is NO MONTHLY CLOSE outside of these trendlines except THIS MONTH we are right now out of bounds breaking the upwards trend... if it closes like this we go down....


Quoting bguguen
mate the line is not wrong... on a longer term chart the longer the trendline goes the significance/power of the trendline starts to fade thats why you can see price Poking above it for a breif moment and coming back in again... we can see this ALL THE TIME... maybe its you who needs to learn a bit more huh

The the fact that you see Weekly chart going above a trendline and coming back in the next week is because it is respecting to a trendline Drawn on a monthly chart...
Never has a monthly closed breaking a trendline YET... however if this...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,471
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:55pm Mar 13, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting bguguen
mate the line is not wrong... on a longer term chart the longer the trendline goes the significance/power of the trendline starts to fade thats why you can see price Poking above it for a breif moment and coming back in again... we can see this ALL THE TIME... maybe its you who needs to learn a bit more huh

The the fact that you see Weekly chart going above a trendline and coming back in the next week is because it is respecting to a trendline Drawn on a monthly chart...
Never has a monthly closed breaking a trendline YET... however if this month...
You are the only person on this thread that has this trendline breaking... surely that must tell you something!
  • #303,472
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:55pm Mar 13, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting egkid
Talking of 1.73
I Think First one Released this rumor
Aug 5, 2011
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post4840543
. i know that resistance mate.. but i don't think it will gets there in the near future.. but who knows right? atm the PA isn't showing it wanna gets there yet.. no matter how many time i analyze the weekly, i'm not convinced it will get there.. maybe next month, or next year.. who knows, right?

But that will the the toughest area the price will get and i definitely think it won't be broken with just 1 test only..
  • #303,473
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:59pm Mar 13, 2012 12:59pm
Quoting bbakker
Ahhh... you see, now you are thinking and that will get you into lots of trouble. Let the charts do the talking not your head!

Also your fundamentals need a bit of work. QE in the UK has gone to the banks to shore up their balance sheets to prevent them from failing. Also they have been deleveraging like mad, especially RBS, but that process is not finished yet. Unless we see major defaults in EZ (Ireland, Spain, Italy), I believe they won't fail. UK banks have little exposure to Greece compared to German/French banks.

LTRO is also doing...
None the less... with the situation in Europe... 1 Trillion Euro if Greece defaults and the looks of it is greece is gona default either they like it or not... right now they are in denial and delaying it from happening the more they delay, 1 trillion euro turns to 1.5 easily on compounded on debt interest repayments... This will put heavy demand for risk aversion meaning USD will be bought up a lot...
if GBP manages to survive the GBP strength will be stagnant while USD would strengthen most... GBPUSD will fall but it will be drive by the LARGE fall on EURUSD as USD are demanded form EURO
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,474
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:59pm Mar 13, 2012 12:59pm
On the monthly chart below I have circled the fractal swing hi or lo's from which the obvious current unbreeched trend lines are plotted on this t/f...and there has been no recent breech and close below/above of any such descending or ascending trend line on this t/f.

Yes trend lines can be crawn from open/closes but moct plot using hi/lo's as these contain all price action and on this measure the above stands.

Whilst with any type of analysis there can be differing interpretations - some are just plain wrong Lol ! - unfortunately it's up to us the reader to decide which is which ! I'm fairly confident I know the difference..hope you do too.

G/L with that !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: z.jpg Size: 75 KB
ex member
  • #303,475
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:00pm Mar 13, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting bguguen
Buddy as you can see in that weekly chart... that weekly candle attepted to break below that upwards trend and got rejected... so its still valid... nothing wrong there... in fact if theres anything wrong... its slightly in accurate because that line should be at the low of that weekly candle but hey... i plotted it on the MONTHLY chart... so MT4 aint that good with accuracy but you should get my drift... there is NO MONTHLY CLOSE outside of these trendlines except THIS MONTH we are right now out of bounds breaking the upwards trend... if it closes...
Tip: You must always re-adjust the trendline if plotted on a higher timeframe and when you look at it on a lower timeframe, you see it cuts through a bar. Re-adjust it on the lower timframe and then when you look back at the higher timeframe, the trendline is perfect!

But hey... each to their own!
  • #303,476
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:03pm Mar 13, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting bbakker
You are the only person on this thread that has this trendline breaking... surely that must tell you something!
Oh my god... you are not seeing it carefully... ill zoom it in so you can see it a lot more clearer... my definition of a trendline is if a candle closes breaks it... and so far NONE has closed breaking any trendline yet... HOWEVER the current MONTH at where it is... is threatening to break the Upwards trend....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdy1.gif Size: 14 KB

bbaker, do me a favor... do you see ANY monthly candle that CLOSED beyond those trendlines that suggests a break?? Nope not yet... though the CURRENT monthly candle NOT CLOSED is showing a break but we have yet to see it close BELOW this trendline first... we shall see where it close on 31/03/2012 my friend... for all i know the monthly could close back inside this consolidating area...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #303,477
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:04pm Mar 13, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting bguguen
None the less... with the situation in Europe... 1 Trillion Euro if Greece defaults and the looks of it is greece is gona default either they like it or not... right now they are in denial and delaying it from happening the more they delay, 1 trillion euro turns to 1.5 easily on compounded on debt interest repayments... This will put heavy demand for risk aversion meaning USD will be bought up a lot...
if GBP manages to survive the GBP strength will be stagnant while USD would strengthen most... GBPUSD will fall but it will be drive by the LARGE...
Did I not just say that UK banks have very little exposure to Greece.

About 3% exposure and if you read the Daily Mail, then I feel sorry for you... lol

Not if US keep printing and they are not dealing with their debt. The UK is!

1 trillion Euros.... you MUST read the daily mail. Don't be so bloody stupid!

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/gree...nt-debt-to-gdp
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/gdp

Now do the maths and they have just written off 100bn euros of the total debt!

I studied economics, so don't bother arguing with someone who knows what they are talking about!
  • #303,478
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:05pm Mar 13, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting bguguen
Oh my god... you are not seeing it carefully... ill zoom it in so you can see it a lot more clearer... my definition of a trendline is if a candle closes breaks it... and so far NONE has closed breaking any trendline yet... HOWEVER the current MONTH at where it is... is threatening to break the Upwards trend....
Attachment
Sorry mate... but look at bbmac's chart and then look at my tip for drawing trendlines!

End of discussion... like I said, each to their own!

I need to go, so I wish you much success with your trading.
  • #303,479
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:07pm Mar 13, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting bguguen
mate the line is not wrong... on a longer term chart the longer the trendline goes the significance/power of the trendline starts to fade thats why you can see price Poking above it for a breif moment and coming back in again... we can see this ALL THE TIME... maybe its you who needs to learn a bit more huh

The the fact that you see Weekly chart going above a trendline and coming back in the next week is because it is respecting to a trendline Drawn on a monthly chart...
Never has a monthly closed breaking a trendline YET... however if this month...
ah c'mon you can't be serious.
in every timeframe, a line :
1. is respected.
2. is not respected.

there is not the point
"3. sometimes is respected some other times is not"

PERIOD.

if this would be true, everything sometimes is respected some times not.
but this is not an art. this is forex trading where there are really heavy flows moved by expensive and very complex algos. not certainly some one clicking a button in or near a line to push into market some billions or trillions.

a line is a tool helpful to define actual price direction and help us small traders to have a visual thing that remember where we are going and where is possible we are going.

then if price will go up to 1.68 or down to 1.40 is both case an idea. no more. and none right and none wrong.

gotta leave.
good luck
goodbye
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #303,480
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:09pm Mar 13, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting bbakker
Sorry mate... but look at bbmac's chart and then look at my tip for drawing trendlines!

End of discussion... like I said, each to their own!

I need to go, so I wish you much success with your trading.
dude the only reason why candle can look like it breaks a trendline temporarily is because SPIKES DO HAPPEN.... the price dont just STOP exactly where the trendlines are... very often they pierce and get rejected closing back failing to break in this case... we see the last 2 months or so it tried to pierce but failed to Close breaking the Upward trend... its as simple as...

With MACD on the Red theres a Bearish bias to break below rather that upwards...
also MA5 is below MA14 which is yet another sign for bears... all we need is Standard Deviation to pick up and that'll be a clear signal to short it on a Monthly Chart...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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