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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #303,261
  • Mar 12, 2012 9:27am Mar 12, 2012 9:27am
Quoting Red Alert
Ok, let's forget what damn expert said...some body please exlpain me the fundamental situation it will continue bearish that far ......
So you would trade of what someone here tells you if they convince you? We only put out our ideas and if it was to confirm your thoughts or add knowledge to your information then perhaps worth confirming a trade. What is your strategy? What is your expectancy?

The answer to these two questions is far more important than which direction the price goes. My expectancy is about 60% at 1:1. Even with a decent strategy and money management I can expect to have a losing month. If you don't know what I'm talking about you are going to lose the remaining 30% of your capital, and it will go faster then the 70%
Gone to a better place
  • #303,262
  • Mar 12, 2012 9:40am Mar 12, 2012 9:40am
Quoting Napoleon180
Breakout of a heavy resistance, hmm i think about going short after retesting breakout level at 1,5660.
What do you guys think?
My short target for today is 5575, but it needs to break 5606 first, which we should do before London close.

Check out the daily chart and see why price has been capped at 1.5642 as previous support turns into resistance.

Hint: Look at 27th Jan and Valentine's day.

If it breaks above 1.5625, we will visit 1.5642 again.
  • #303,263
  • Mar 12, 2012 9:46am Mar 12, 2012 9:46am
Quoting smikester
So you would trade of what someone here tells you if they convince you? We only put out our ideas and if it was to confirm your thoughts or add knowledge to your information then perhaps worth confirming a trade. What is your strategy? What is your expectancy?

The answer to these two questions is far more important than which direction the price goes. My expectancy is about 60% at 1:1. Even with a decent strategy and money management I can expect to have a losing month. If you don't know what I'm talking about you are going to lose the remaining...
sigh smike... its people like him i try to help but you see its hard to help them understand that patience and smart money management is key to a winning account...
Some people come in here with a huge adrenaline rush trying to make 100% win and stuff like that... this is what the big boys get fed on... poor new but ignorant traders...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #303,264
  • Mar 12, 2012 10:12am Mar 12, 2012 10:12am
@Smike and @ Bguguen

Sorry, i just want to know and compare how you see this situation, technically and from fundamental, i already have my own style and strategy. Don't worry guys, i won't copy your trading system. I believe it is only the matter of my emotion control.....and dealing with my adrenalin for taking risk
  • #303,265
  • Mar 12, 2012 10:22am Mar 12, 2012 10:22am
Quoting bbakker
My short target for today is 5575, but it needs to break 5606 first, which we should do before London close.

Check out the daily chart and see why price has been capped at 1.5642 as previous support turns into resistance.

Hint: Look at 27th Jan and Valentine's day.

If it breaks above 1.5625, we will visit 1.5642 again.
My short was filled upon breaking the aqua horizontal line as plotted on the charts submitted. These lines can be a little subjective for traders.

If this can get going, I may well hold for the week... notwithstanding fundamental concerns that I do not intend to post on the Cable thread, but which can be researched alongside the week of news releases to follow.
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  • #303,266
  • Mar 12, 2012 10:33am Mar 12, 2012 10:33am
Quoting Red Alert
@Smike and @ Bguguen

Sorry, i just want to know and compare how you see this situation, technically and from fundamental, i already have my own style and strategy. Don't worry guys, i won't copy your trading system. I believe it is only the matter of my emotion control.....and dealing with my adrenalin for taking risk
Emotional control is one aspect, but your money/risk management needs a serious overhaul if you want to be in it for the long term.
  • #303,267
  • Mar 12, 2012 10:34am Mar 12, 2012 10:34am
Fake 50%fibo break?

touched new low at 5602. confirm?
  • #303,268
  • Mar 12, 2012 10:42am Mar 12, 2012 10:42am
Quoting 45Condor
My short was filled upon breaking the aqua horizontal line as plotted on the charts submitted. These lines can be a little subjective for traders.

If this can get going, I may well hold for the week...
That's a good entry. Well worth holding for a few days but we might yet retest 1.5650 and so I'm wondering about my second BE trade. Mine was off the first M15 bar to close below that range. Looking forward to your fundy analysis on Cesar's thread?
Gone to a better place
  • #303,269
  • Mar 12, 2012 10:53am Mar 12, 2012 10:53am
Quoting bbakker
Emotional control is one aspect, but your money/risk management needs a serious overhaul if you want to be in it for the long term.
From a fundamental aspect as per your quote -

Quoting Red Alert
...But still i don't understand, what fundamental factor specially in UK to support this prediction, I can't see it, ....., ow....ow.....be careful guys, it is more tricky than you thought.....
There are two currencies quoted in a pair and so you must weigh up both countries involved in the pair.

Right now this is how I see it -

US positives: Good employment figures coming out, and hence QE3 might be held of which is reflected in the 10 year treasury yields going up and dollar strength. In a risk off environment, CHF is now pegged with EU and SnB could entertain further intervention. JPY is taking a slapping, but UJ will reach weekly supply soon, so I see it strengthening. Seems with a better US economy, USD seems to be in favour again as a safe haven.

US negatives: Debt still growing.

UK positives: Ermmmm.... Anyone? Maybe the April budget might help, but they are squabbling over it right now.

UK negatives: Employment going up and recently invoked £50bn of further asset purchases (QE). Flatline growth, debt increasing and interest rates staying at 0.5% for the forseeable future.

Anyway, as a day trader, fundamentals like these should not affect your trading. The fundamentals drive the weekly charts.

I wish you success with your trading.
  • #303,270
  • Mar 12, 2012 10:56am Mar 12, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Il Pres
Fake 50%fibo break?

touched new low at 5602. confirm?
Quite possibly.... 5606 seems to be a tough nut to crack!
  • #303,271
  • Mar 12, 2012 11:01am Mar 12, 2012 11:01am
Quoting smikester
That's a good entry. Well worth holding for a few days but we might yet retest 1.5650 and so I'm wondering about my second BE trade. Mine was off the first M15 bar to close below that range. Looking forward to your fundy analysis on Cesar's thread?
...currently looking at corruption via Evangelo Venizelos for dealings with German arms manufacturers.

Not long before March 23rd - after market close - declaration of default for Greece.

Sterling too exposed to the Euro not to suffer.

FED may want weak Dollar, but markets now moving to 'relative' safety, I feel.

Currently hitting the bottom of 20C here in France, and so it's off to the garden with a glass rose... yep, not stuck in Brussels this week, but may have to visit Maastricht come Wednesday for the remainder of the week - yuck.
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  • #303,272
  • Mar 12, 2012 11:03am Mar 12, 2012 11:03am
Quoting bbakker
UK positives: Ermmmm.... Anyone?
What about the Olympic games and the Queen's Silver Jubilee celebrations? Hmmm? The cricket team is not doing badly. Dr Who is now popular world wide, as I understand it.

Come on!
Gone to a better place
  • #303,273
  • Mar 12, 2012 11:04am Mar 12, 2012 11:04am
Quoting smikester
What about the Olympic games and the Queen's Silver Jubilee celebrations? Hmmm? The cricket team is not doing badly. Dr Who is now popular world wide, as I understand it.

Come on!
...and we beat France yesterday in the rugby!
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  • #303,274
  • Mar 12, 2012 11:11am Mar 12, 2012 11:11am
Quoting 45Condor
...and we beat France yesterday in the rugby!
Bit of a nail biter that one towards the end. That drop kick... How are things with the missus? Did you give her a grin? Mine's Scottish and I won't go into detail but when England play Scotland, well...
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  • #303,275
  • Mar 12, 2012 11:15am Mar 12, 2012 11:15am
@ bakker
Thanks bro...that's really helpfull for me...., usually i just see UK and US side. forget the other. Now you gave me new idea how to see the market situation. i am trying to improve my trade, honestly ..I need to improve long trade strategy.... my aim is to combine short and long to stabilize my account.
All right good sign for me, climb up to 5642...Not far from my buy position..... Good luck bro.....
  • #303,276
  • Mar 12, 2012 11:17am Mar 12, 2012 11:17am
Quoting smikester
Bit of a nail biter that one towards the end. That drop kick... How are things with the missus? Did you give her a grin? Mine's Scottish and I won't go into detail but when England play Scotland, well...
The rule is that if England win, the French wife cooks; if France win, the English husband cooks.

The result, one of us is always a little resentful.

The cat and horse remain neutral in such matters – thus guaranteeing that they will be fed by either human party.
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  • #303,277
  • Mar 12, 2012 11:26am Mar 12, 2012 11:26am
Quoting 45Condor
The rule is that if England win, the French wife cooks; if France win, the English husband cooks.

The result, one of us is always a little resentful.

The cat and horse remain neutral in such matters – thus guaranteeing that they will be fed by either human party.
And yet I assume the animals are French? Very wise animals indeed.
Gone to a better place
  • #303,278
  • Mar 12, 2012 11:38am Mar 12, 2012 11:38am
Quoting smikester
And yet I assume the animals are French? Very wise animals indeed.
Well, erm, the horse is German.

The cat, well, he just turned up one day about 6 years ago, and never left... and I doubt it is loyalty to us. You know how cats are, they remain loyal to themselves and a free meal. One could almost say, typically French...

Now don't any French nationals here take that as a swipe at a national characteristic, as it was not. Although that dentist friend of ours does seem to visit the home on a remarkable frequent basis... and his wife always comes along. Costs me a fortune in wine, does that bugger.
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  • #303,279
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:05pm Mar 12, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting bbakker
My short target for today is 5575, but it needs to break 5606 first, which we should do before London close.

Check out the daily chart and see why price has been capped at 1.5642 as previous support turns into resistance.

Hint: Look at 27th Jan and Valentine's day.

If it breaks above 1.5625, we will visit 1.5642 again.
I posted early reply to u but seems u missed it.
Take care it need to go @57 first from 1.56 "That's how i read it and as always i could b wrong but share my view"
  • #303,280
  • Edited 12:23pm Mar 12, 2012 12:09pm | Edited 12:23pm
Quoting egkid
I posted early reply to u but seems u missed it.
Take care it need to go @57 first from 1.56 "That's how i read it and as always i could b wrong but share my view"
From today's movements i agree GBPUSD is bound for a retrace... my guess is up to 1.5700 before a next drop... so it seems like my Sell Limit might actually get a chance to trigger... lets see whats gona happen then...

Interesting seems like Ben bernanke might actually be talking tomorrow... lets see if he is still the Ben "Full of Shit" Bernanke we all know and that will put the risk pairs up and ill be looking to load shorts...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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