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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #303,121
  • Mar 11, 2012 5:53pm Mar 11, 2012 5:53pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Top triangle slope concave, lower one convex?
Nah... just basic slope angle. I gave you the numbers in my earlier post, now do the maths!

Hint: You will need Pythagoras' help
  • #303,122
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:11pm Mar 11, 2012 6:11pm
For me this week will be all about the Euro and because of that, Sterling. There are big failures of confidence in what is happening in the Eurozone and the will or even the ability to hold things together. The UK is inextricably tied to that problem. This causes uncertainty in equities and world trade futures.

Although the USA does not want it, this means a stronger dollar and we can see this is already happening with the USDX very bullish and having another strong run at 80. If the SNB fails to support the Euro above 1.2 this will exarcerbate the situation.

I know the sentiment on this thread is bullish but hoping doesn't win and we now have a consolidated row of 5 bearish weekly candles above the 1.5650 support. (My chart here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post5419248) Then take a look at the USDX on the daily chart where cable supported at this level in the past?

So I will be surprised if we rally above 1.5695 - 1.5720 before we break 1.5650 support. Especially if cable consolidates in this area.
Gone to a better place
  • #303,123
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:18pm Mar 11, 2012 6:18pm
Quoting bbakker
Nah... just basic slope angle. I gave you the numbers in my earlier post, now do the maths!

Hint: You will need Pythagoras' help
But if the slope of 1 triangle is steeper than the slope of the other triangle and the slopes of the 2 triangles are connecting, how can the slope of the overall 3rd LARGE triangle be straight? Based on your relative angle assessment of the 2 smaller "inner triangles", should not the steeper slope of the smaller triangle in the top image produce a concave 3rd larger triangle slope, and a convex 3rd larger triangle slope in the bottom image due to the repositioning of the slope differential?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #303,124
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:19pm Mar 11, 2012 6:19pm
Quoting smikester
For me this week will be all about the Euro and because of that, Sterling. There are big failures of confidence in what is happening in the Eurozone and the will or even the ability to hold things together. The UK is inextricably tied to that problem. This causes uncertainty in equities and world trade futures.

Although the USA does not want it, this means a stronger dollar and we can see this is already happening with the USDX very bullish and having another strong run at 80. If the SNB fails to support the Euro above 1.2 this will exarcerbate...
Come on man... where were you last week... Greece and the Euro are saved... LOL

I am sure Bernanke or one of his cronies will mention QE3 is not out of the question yet or a continuation of Operation Twist just to confuse the noobs.
  • #303,125
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:22pm Mar 11, 2012 6:22pm
Quoting smikester
For me this week will be all about the Euro and because of that, Sterling. There are big failures of confidence in what is happening in the Eurozone and the will or even the ability to hold things together. The UK is inextricably tied to that problem. This causes uncertainty in equities and world trade futures.

Although the USA does not want it, this means a stronger dollar and we can see this is already happening with the USDX very bullish and having another strong run at 80. If the SNB fails to support the Euro above 1.2 this will exarcerbate...
Money and Markets comnented that SOME of Europes money may flow into US markets due to its positive sentiment lately and may limit USD strength to some degree.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #303,126
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:27pm Mar 11, 2012 6:27pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
But if the slope of 1 triangle is steeper than the slope of the other triangle and the slopes of the 2 triangles are connecting, how can the slope of the overall 3rd LARGE triangle be straight? Based on your relative angle assessment of the 2 smaller "inner triangles", should not the steeper slope of the smaller triangle in the top image produce a concave 3rd larger triangle slope, and a convex 3rd larger triangle slope in the bottom image due to the repositioning of the slope differential?
My understanding of concave and convex is different to yours, but you are correct in stating that on the lower picture, the slope changes angle when the green triangle finishes and the red starts.

Basically, on the upper picture it is a straight line, whereas on the lower picture it is not a straight line. If you look very carefully, you will see that it is not a straight line.
  • #303,127
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:30pm Mar 11, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Money and Markets comnented that SOME of Europes money may flow into US markets due to its positive sentiment lately and may limit USD strength to some degree.
Let me get this straight... if Europeans are moving money into the US markets, they would sell Euro and buy USD. How can that limit USD strength to some degree then? It would have quite the opposite effect unless I am missing something here.
  • #303,128
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:34pm Mar 11, 2012 6:34pm
Quoting bbakker
Let me get this straight... if Europeans are moving money into the US markets, they would sell Euro and buy USD. How can that limit USD strength to some degree then? It would have quite the opposite effect unless I am missing something here.
Yes, but once this US cash is then injected into the stock market due to positive US outlook lately wouldn't the USD weaken again?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #303,129
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:35pm Mar 11, 2012 6:35pm
Quoting bbakker
My understanding of concave and convex is different to yours, but you are correct in stating that on the lower picture, the slope changes angle when the green triangle finishes and the red starts.

Basically, on the upper picture it is a straight line, whereas on the lower picture it is not a straight line. If you look very carefully, you will see that it is not a straight line.
I am talking out of my arse here... neither are straight lines and you are absolutely right... one is concave and the other is convex.

Too many beers and time for bed for an early start!
  • #303,130
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:36pm Mar 11, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yes, but once this US cash is then injected into the stock market due to positive US outlook lately wouldn't the USD weaken again?
Indeed. Although Friday saw the US markets and USD rally, so the correlation can break down.
  • #303,131
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:36pm Mar 11, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yes, but once this US cash is then injected into the stock market due to positive US outlook lately wouldn't the USD weaken again?
My overal thought process is that with the US looking like they don't want to stop the printing press anytime soon and US stock market looking a lot better than the Euro one, would people prefer to send their money to Gold and stocks rather than parking it as USD?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #303,132
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:39pm Mar 11, 2012 6:39pm
Quoting bbakker
I am talking out of my arse here... neither are straight lines and you are absolutely right... one is concave and the other is convex.

Too many beers and time for bed for an early start!
nice to know I am not alone
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #303,133
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:49pm Mar 11, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
nice to know I am not alone
lol

It is a single point concave/convex rather than a smoothed concave/convex and I had the latter in my stoopid brain... lol

Righteo... bed is calling. I am working from home tomorrow as I am expecting the delivery of a brand spanking new washing machine in the afternoon, but that doesn't mean I am going to spend my time in here as I am expected to do some bloody boring work tomorrow.

So it's goodnight from me and I will drop by at the weekend.

Watch out for those flying frying pans
  • #303,134
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:54pm Mar 11, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting bbakker
lol

It is a single point concave/convex rather than a smoothed concave/convex and I had the latter in my stoopid brain... lol

Righteo... bed is calling. I am working from home tomorrow as I am expecting the delivery of a brand spanking new washing machine in the afternoon, but that doesn't mean I am going to spend my time in here as I am expected to do some bloody boring work tomorrow.

So it's goodnight from me and I will drop by at the weekend.

Watch out for those flying frying pans
Correct
Damn shame
and
Will Do!!!!
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #303,135
  • Mar 11, 2012 7:16pm Mar 11, 2012 7:16pm
not sure if price will move lower after 1h printed long consolidation, tho 4h hasn't confirms anything yet.. so triggered 1 test position at 5665 with the stop at 5640 just below the support zone..
  • #303,136
  • Mar 11, 2012 8:26pm Mar 11, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting A-speculator
not sure if price will move lower after 1h printed long consolidation, tho 4h hasn't confirms anything yet.. so triggered 1 test position at 5665 with the stop at 5640 just below the support zone..
atm, pressure can be seen pushing the price lower in 1h, if the price unable to make at least 1 bullish candle in 1h, i reckon my sl will be hit, unless the market can prove to close above at least 5690, then perhaps it might retrace up..

green pips guys..
  • #303,137
  • Mar 11, 2012 8:51pm Mar 11, 2012 8:51pm
Hi,

I took a short at 1.5666 an hour ago, stop loss is at 1.5672. I usually don't trade the asia session.

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Who knows what the tide could bring?
Forex Trader
  • #303,138
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:06pm Mar 11, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting mlambole
Hi,

I took a short at 1.5666 an hour ago, stop loss is at 1.5672. I usually don't trade the asia session.

Attachment

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Who knows what the tide could bring?
Forex Trader
i think at current price level, it is better to be on the bull side due to the trade risk reward ratio unless of course, breakout of the support..

anyway, i can understand that at current price level brings confusion to both side due to how the daily close which can be seen that further continuation can happen (this leads to bearish view) and 1h and 4h exhaustion pattern where this can lead to bullish view.

with that being said, i think your position might have a chance either the continuation of the movement happen today or price retrace to the upside, since i think we are in a downtrend but just be careful of the drawdown.

Personally, i prefer to take on the bullish side atm as long as the support remain intact.
  • #303,139
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:42pm Mar 11, 2012 9:42pm
Hi Mano..
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #303,140
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:51pm Mar 11, 2012 9:51pm
Hey boyz and girlz.....

I am on the road......family vacation - March Break Style.......took the computers on the road with me.....will try and post a pic of the traveling setup!!!!!

Just wanted to say hello.....hope everyone is doing well.....

Currently I am flat on Cable - very interesting levels that we are at......time will show me what to do next - As usual....I will post what I see when I see it......

Cheers,

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
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