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EUR/CHF

  • #3,401
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:18am Mar 7, 2012 9:18am
This time I agree with onanda because the Bollinger Band has tightenned up very close to the SNB floor... that is calling for a decent move away from the current small range. Possibly a move like the YEN?... we will see.
  • #3,402
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:19am Mar 7, 2012 9:19am
A move to the upper end of the tarding range 1.24xx would be fabulous
  • #3,403
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:07am Mar 7, 2012 10:07am
Quoting hornsant
A move to the upper end of the tarding range 1.24xx would be fabulous
EURO gains or loose CHF is proportionate so offers are there for EURCHF which not allow it to rise
so EUR/USD doesn't matter
  • #3,404
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:07am Mar 7, 2012 11:07am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ecbreakout.jpg Size: 88 KB

When will we break out? The target of this triangle is 1,2170
  • #3,405
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:10am Mar 7, 2012 11:10am
Quoting Simon73
When will we break out. The target of this triangle is 1,2170
Comeon nobody belive on it anymore, let's face the truth: the pair will remain in 2040 and 2055 range f o r e v e r !
  • #3,406
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:27am Mar 7, 2012 11:27am
Quoting tunera
Comeon nobody belive on it anymore, let's face the truth: the pair will remain in 2040 and 2055 range f o r e v e r !
Let's face it, SNB does have a stable Franc now. It is no longer charging down below 1.00 like before. The prospect of higher floor has gotten a lot of people to help them achieve that. I think they have already achieved what they want.
  • #3,407
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:45am Mar 7, 2012 11:45am
Quoting Simon73
Attachment
When will we break out? The target of this triangle is 1,2170
u think its breakout time? i dont think so:/
  • #3,408
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:57am Mar 7, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Simon73
Attachment
When will we break out? The target of this triangle is 1,2170
HA HA HA

Amuse to see people still believe in charts with this pair

I agree, the vibes coming from SNB is franc is already stable and economy is already improving so no risk to economy for now.

When risk off will happen OR intervention than only this pair will move.

I am of the view, floor will be broken once before SNB do anything
Thats always the case even with previous peg same thing
  • #3,409
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:55pm Mar 7, 2012 12:55pm
but let's say that, after all the fun and boring, technically it still make perfect sense that the price may be above 1.25 before the end of march. Right now is sleeping ok, but will not last forever. Good night!
  • #3,410
  • Mar 7, 2012 1:00pm Mar 7, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting tunera
but let's say that, after all the fun and boring, technically it still make perfect sense that the price may be above 1.25 before the end of march. Right now is sleeping ok, but will not last forever. Good night!
I wonder what will be the trigger to go up:

- tomorrow CPI data
- tomorrow Greek PSI result
- friday NFP
- rumours before next week SNB meeting
- SNB meeting
- New SNB president a few week later

Time will tell
  • #3,411
  • Mar 7, 2012 1:05pm Mar 7, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting tunera
but let's say that, after all the fun and boring, technically it still make perfect sense that the price may be above 1.25 before the end of march. Right now is sleeping ok, but will not last forever. Good night!
i think 1,25 is an overstatment. notice, the peak was not above 1.2160 in the last two months, and we have only 3 weeks from march for a 450 pip way...i think it is wishful thinking - even if i would be very happy if you were right.
  • #3,412
  • Mar 7, 2012 1:45pm Mar 7, 2012 1:45pm
Yeah.. It's wishful and hopeful

No reason whatsoever for intervention by SNB
  • #3,413
  • Mar 7, 2012 1:59pm Mar 7, 2012 1:59pm
Quoting coolkaps4u
Yeah.. It's wishful and hopeful

No reason whatsoever for intervention by SNB
Despite their capital reserves report, they have probably been intervening just to keep it around 1.2050 because any institutional trader would pile this pair down to trigger stops. That is a very obvious trade and there is no good explanation as to why nobody has done this other than the SNB keeping the peg. As for their diminishing capital fx reserves, they are probably diversifying into other instruments.
  • #3,414
  • Mar 7, 2012 2:32pm Mar 7, 2012 2:32pm
I wonder why most of the people here are expecting a move up. When looking at EUR/CHF's history, it broke down most of the time after an intervention. I remember breakdown moves from 1.6000 and 1.4000 in the recent years. Additionally, a breakdown would be a very profitable move with its technical target being the recent swing low at 1.0000. That's 2.000 pips down from here. Quite an impressive profit target, eh?

By the way, George Soros made a decent amount of his fortune by betting against the GBP after an intervention of the Bank of England. The market cannot be forced up or down by an intervention in the long run - it's just too strong ...
  • #3,415
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:33pm Mar 7, 2012 3:33pm
Quoting TraderJF
I wonder why most of the people here are expecting a move up. When looking at EUR/CHF's history, it broke down most of the time after an intervention. I remember breakdown moves from 1.6000 and 1.4000 in the recent years. Additionally, a breakdown would be a very profitable move with its technical target being the recent swing low at 1.0000. That's 2.000 pips down from here. Quite an impressive profit target, eh?

By the way, George Soros made a decent amount of his fortune by betting against the GBP after an intervention of the Bank of England....
you sound somewhat trapped down there
  • #3,416
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:44pm Mar 7, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting hornsant
you sound somewhat trapped down there
What are you talking about?
  • #3,417
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:24pm Mar 7, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting TraderJF
What are you talking about?
show us what you have and short this pair heavy... maybe you can break the floor, everybody in this thread will love to see that
  • #3,418
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:41pm Mar 7, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting hornsant
show us what you have and short this pair heavy... maybe you can break the floor, everybody in this thread will love to see that
Sorry, I am scalping only. I have posted my knowledge about this situation but this does not necessarily mean that I will place a swing trade short on this pair.
  • #3,419
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:45pm Mar 7, 2012 4:45pm
A Daily range of 10 pips, lovely.
  • #3,420
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:40pm Mar 7, 2012 10:40pm
As per trigger I think we have to look at the USD index, that is the key
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