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Silent Service Method

  • #13,581
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:40am Mar 6, 2012 9:40am
Oil and Russia.....


Looking at the white chart, the Light Sweet Crude contract, I see $105 as support. We are approaching that.

Looking at the black chart, the USD vs. Russian Ruble, we are starting to show resistance at the 50% retrace level on the 4 hour chart.

I smell a possible trade coming........on the close of the candle, I will access the situation and if we get a nice shooting star, I will sell a break lower as it is with the trend too!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: ruble.png Size: 17 KB
  • #13,582
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:41am Mar 6, 2012 9:41am
Quoting nikim
GBPJPY seems to be retracement mode. Maybe the 125 area would be nice to see some chart/ candle pattern for us to look long to test the 130 area again.

The USD/JPY is doing the same thing at the moment.....floating around the 80 - 81 level. I suspect you are correct.....
  • #13,583
  • Mar 6, 2012 12:53pm Mar 6, 2012 12:53pm
Interesting to see if this can finish the day as a pin bar and close below 1.300
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,584
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:48pm Mar 6, 2012 9:48pm
AUD/USD - Broke and closed below the 1.06, I am now looking to sell a rally here.....I feel its going down.
AUD/JPY - The JPY was so oversold it was due a bounce (big rejection at 88), sell a rally in that one too as a reversion to the mean trade has plenty or room here.
  • #13,585
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:15pm Mar 7, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting mypipbull
AUD/USD - Broke and closed below the 1.06, I am now looking to sell a rally here.....I feel its going down.
AUD/JPY - The JPY was so oversold it was due a bounce (big rejection at 88), sell a rally in that one too as a reversion to the mean trade has plenty or room here.
Watch the 1.04 level in the AUD/USD.........
  • #13,586
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:15pm Mar 7, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting uBERpIP
Interesting to see if this can finish the day as a pin bar and close below 1.300
1.30 is a great spot to see something like that as well........
  • #13,587
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:20pm Mar 7, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting uBERpIP
Interesting to see if this can finish the day as a pin bar and close below 1.300
Early days, but this is what the weekly chart looks like as well.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd.png Size: 35 KB
  • #13,588
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:07pm Mar 7, 2012 8:07pm
Quoting clockwork71
Early days, but this is what the weekly chart looks like as well.......
I entered this after break of the pin yesterday, at 1.2950.

My greedy target would be 1.25.

But like you said, it's still early and I'm mentally prepared to see this go either way.
  • #13,589
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:45pm Mar 7, 2012 8:45pm
Quoting clockwork71
Watch the 1.04 level in the AUD/USD.........
Agreed.....will struggle there most likely.....what I now like is that pin bar (for the bounce long)...if this pin fails there could be follow through to the downside....with 1st hurdle being 1.04....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,590
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:23pm Mar 7, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting mypipbull
Agreed.....will struggle there most likely.....what I now like is that pin bar (for the bounce long)...if this pin fails there could be follow through to the downside....with 1st hurdle being 1.04....
The hammer is also at 1.05, which is a major enough level to at least catch my attention........
  • #13,591
  • Mar 9, 2012 8:42pm Mar 9, 2012 8:42pm
just realized how ironic it is that I am sitting here eating a baklava while reading about the Greek default......
  • #13,592
  • Mar 10, 2012 9:54am Mar 10, 2012 9:54am
Gentlemen -- Long time no see. Anyhow was catching up on recent posts (some from as long as 2mo ago) and have two charts I wanted to revisit, both very long term.

First up Eur/Chf -- I can't remember which way people wanted to play this (perhaps from the long side) but I think the play is shorting it. If you take a look at this thing all the risk/reward is to the downside. You might have 300pips of downside but you have about 2,000 pips of upside if the "line in the sand" is not defended. Does the Euro miraculously heal itself? I don't know but to me it looks like there's a lot of money to be made if the SNB loses its nerve:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-09_EURCHF.png Size: 72 KB


USD/JPY -- On a long term basis, it looks like we've broken a pretty solid trendline (or a descending wedge for those more technically inclined) and to me looks like there's a lot of upside here.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-10_USDJPY.png Size: 53 KB


Feel free to ignore the "volume" on these... this is just a standard template i use for other stuff.

Hope everyone is doing well. I'm enjoying making my mortgage payments and watching my 15mo old grow up. Haven't worried about the market too much. Long USD/JPY in the low 80s and will probably just let that one hang out there for a long time to come (unless things change dramatically).

As a side note for those that play the stock market... is there anyone else out there that could just kick themselves for not buying apple stock? Talk about a no brainer... sadly i let my dislike of their products blind me to the fact that everyone, and their brother, and their mother was buying them (and the chart offered quite a few entries along the way)! Oh and PCLN (priceline.com) which we talked about in this thread in the $200s it now pushing $660/share. Which serves as a valuable lesson... don't take a $20 profit when you can take a $450 profit!

Take care gents!
  • #13,593
  • Mar 10, 2012 2:52pm Mar 10, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Gentlemen -- Long time no see. Anyhow was catching up on recent posts (some from as long as 2mo ago) and have two charts I wanted to revisit, both very long term.

First up Eur/Chf -- I can't remember which way people wanted to play this (perhaps from the long side) but I think the play is shorting it. If you take a look at this thing all the risk/reward is to the downside. You might have 300pips of downside but you have about 2,000 pips of upside if the "line in the sand" is not defended. Does the Euro miraculously heal itself? I don't...

Hi SL......good to see you again. I am with you on the USD/JPY pair, and plan on hanging onto it for some time.....I think the breakout is a significant event to say the least......

As for EUR/CHF, I don't think the SNB will lose it's nerve. In fact, This is starting to trade a lot like the USD/HKD or Saudi Real - it's essentially an "fixed" pair. The one thing that could beat the SNB is the meltdown of the Euro, and by meltdown, I mean collapse.....

The stocks......yeah I know that one. I bought Pier One at something like 75 cents a couple of years ago, and Sold out at something like 1.50 as I doubled my money......I think it is somewhere around $12 now.......I think about that quite often.......

And then there is that whole "I am going to buy gold if it pulls back to 1,000 USD bullshit.......ugh.)

Congrats on baby.......its a lot of fun to say the least......

Chris
  • #13,594
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:19pm Mar 11, 2012 4:19pm
Quoting clockwork71
Looking at the charts today.....this brings up a great point:

Sometimes, we are paid to wait. This is one of those times I think.
Hey Clockwork,

stumbled across your thread, glad i did......... its been a great read..

My "Awakening" came after the realization that "less is more".....

For years I had a trigger finger that refused to sit still, then it hit home
just pick the real setups, I used to trade 5-10 trades a week, I now take 5-10 trades a month .....


Sometimes, we are paid to wait. .............How true


Ja
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #13,595
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:38pm Mar 11, 2012 9:38pm
Quoting j4d
Hey Clockwork,

stumbled across your thread, glad i did......... its been a great read..

My "Awakening" came after the realization that "less is more".....

For years I had a trigger finger that refused to sit still, then it hit home
just pick the real setups, I used to trade 5-10 trades a week, I now take 5-10 trades a month .....


Sometimes, we are paid to wait. .............How true


Ja
Glad to hear it mate......and yes - Not only does it pay to wait, it takes a lot of stress out of trading as well!

Chris
  • #13,596
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:18am Mar 13, 2012 7:18am
So far so good. So I thought I'd go ahead and jinx this.
Trying to ride this back down to trend line area of 1.26 or 1.25.
SL at break even now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud nzd trend line.PNG Size: 56 KB
  • #13,597
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:18pm Mar 13, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting uBERpIP
So far so good. So I thought I'd go ahead and jinx this.
Trying to ride this back down to trend line area of 1.26 or 1.25.
SL at break even now.
That makes it free money now.......my favorite kind of trade.
  • #13,598
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:21pm Mar 13, 2012 10:21pm
The USD/JPY is changing trends at this point......

I can't say for sure, but there are some real compelling reasons to think we are in the middle of of a real trend change.

 

  1. The Federal Reserve is backing away from QE
  2. There is a small positive swap
  3. 50 and 100 day EMA's just crossed over the 200 day EMA
  4. The US will raise rates much faster than Japan
  5. The US economy is one of the few that are growing in the G-10 (in a reasonable amount that is.)
  6. The massive trend line on the weekly (shown in purple) chart gave way for the first time since the financial meltdown a few years ago
  7. The Bank of Japan certainly won't do anything to stop this
  8. The BoJ is also buying government bonds. This is printing money en masse

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 28 KB
  • #13,599
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:24pm Mar 13, 2012 10:24pm
As a result of the previous post, I am long this pair, and have been adding very small bits to it on pullbacks that show support. I am hoping to see this pair grind higher for months if not years. If 80 gives way as support - I would have to change my thinking. I believe we are heading to 85 in the short-term, and a pullback will happen from there as well. Although it has been somewhat parabolic, when you look at the longer term charts such as the monthly - this move is but a blip on the chart.....
  • #13,600
  • Edited 3:20am Mar 14, 2012 3:01am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting clockwork71
As a result of the previous post, I am long this pair, and have been adding very small bits to it on pullbacks that show support. I am hoping to see this pair grind higher for months if not years. If 80 gives way as support - I would have to change my thinking. I believe we are heading to 85 in the short-term, and a pullback will happen from there as well. Although it has been somewhat parabolic, when you look at the longer term charts such as the monthly - this move is but a blip on the chart.....
Hey Chris,

Most JPY pairs do look good at the mo, with all the BOJ intervention going on..
I'm Long CADJPY, Like you say this might have some legs in it,
we wait and see what the JPY will give us.....

Ja.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
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