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EUR/CHF

  • #3,381
  • Mar 6, 2012 6:43am Mar 6, 2012 6:43am
Find on SNB.ch for tomorrow
07.03.2012 15:30
Media conference of Bank Council on results of KPMG review, Zurich


I think nothing important.
  • #3,382
  • Mar 6, 2012 7:23am Mar 6, 2012 7:23am
So, my idea is that usdchf (red line) is pointing to 1.15 area (2010 May high).
Now, keeping that in mind, if the eurusd (green line) will be able to stay above 1.22 (2010 May low), eurchf (black bars) at that point will be trading at 1.4587 or more (2010 May high).

Thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,383
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:41am Mar 6, 2012 9:41am
Hmm.. The pair will fall more.. news is not good
6 more members traded currency intervention

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8E619320120306

What you guys think.. pair this week close and next week
  • #3,384
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:50am Mar 6, 2012 9:50am
Buying opportunity at the moment....
  • #3,385
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:53am Mar 6, 2012 9:53am
Yes looks like the floor will be intact, but looks also like that the pair may remain in the floor range for loong time (like a year or more).
I personally give to this baby still a few weeks, if she don't wake up.. well, bye bye
  • #3,386
  • Mar 6, 2012 10:08am Mar 6, 2012 10:08am
Quoting tunera
Yes looks like the floor will be intact, but looks also like that the pair may remain in the floor range for loong time (like a year or more).
I personally give to this baby still a few weeks, if she don't wake up.. well, bye bye
I don't mind this pair in 50 pip range but 10 pips range kill
  • #3,387
  • Mar 6, 2012 10:14am Mar 6, 2012 10:14am
Quoting coolkaps4u
I don't mind this pair in 50 pip range but 10 pips range kill
yeah, comeon a 3trillion daily market and this pair just move of 10pips, it's ridiculous. I wonder, if the bid-side is impenetrable, and the retails and big traders buy, who the hell is acting as resistance? Who is selling??
  • #3,388
  • Mar 6, 2012 12:14pm Mar 6, 2012 12:14pm
1.2061 target.. come soon... i hope this weak at least one

intervention is not on cards till march 15th outlook
  • #3,389
  • Edited 12:53am Mar 7, 2012 12:39am | Edited 12:53am
Quoting tunera
yeah, comeon a 3trillion daily market and this pair just move of 10pips, it's ridiculous. I wonder, if the bid-side is impenetrable, and the retails and big traders buy, who the hell is acting as resistance? Who is selling??
THEY buy and ... THEY sell !
Retailers can't move the price mainly because the're all tired&gone now.
and... here we are.


this way...
THEY have configured, "prepared", "made up" the chart to form a wedge, etc, etc, then THEY will strike; up or down, bothways bigtime and will get richer.

in such a situation, the probability to go up is 90%... but, you know the song "Knowing EU, knowing SNB..."

... to get in or to not get in ... ? dreaming... )
I'll shop after the drop
  • #3,390
  • Mar 7, 2012 1:30am Mar 7, 2012 1:30am
Quoting Willow
THEY buy and ... THEY sell !
Retailers can't move the price mainly because the're all tired&gone now.
and... here we are.


this way...
THEY have configured, "prepared", "made up" the chart to form a wedge, etc, etc, then THEY will strike; up or down, bothways bigtime and will get richer.

in such a situation, the probability to go up is 90%... but, you know the song "Knowing EU, knowing SNB..."

... to get in or to not get in ... ? dreaming... )
I also thought it, the snb exposure on foreign currencies has gone down just after the floor imposing, basically they are buying at low and are selling as price go up, of course accumulating billions of eur can be scary even for a central bank due to the shit economy that the eur is right now. However, as soon as the eur economy will start a new rally, i think the situation will change (no more range, up we go).
But, if the eur economy will have another down period, then the snb will have to expose more and more, and it will be painful for them.
I think the best solution right now for the snb is to wait and see, if the eur situation start to get bad the best thing to do is raise the floor before the things get too bad, and somehow help the eur economy that way, it would be a riskious move but probably less riskious than do nothing and see the floor destroyed, and the credibility with it.

So, let's see how this eur shit goes, i would really like to see something soon, if greece default that's good, i personally think that the worst is already priced in by the markets, so anything can happen it will be a bullish thing in the medium-long term (damnly bearish in the short term, but just the very short-term).

Let's wait..
  • #3,391
  • Mar 7, 2012 5:36am Mar 7, 2012 5:36am
I belive that there will be more sideways above 1.20 floor and eventualy it will move up. Much like the USDJPY, once traders abandon the dead horse it will move up. This is not a short term bet but a mid to long term one, the problem is that if you sit on the side lines you will mis the move. I am not expecting a rise of the floor but a slow grind to higher levels. Patience.
  • #3,392
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:06am Mar 7, 2012 6:06am
Good analogy with the USD/JPY, the pair moved basically sideways for about 6 months last year. However, even though it didn't move "much" it still had a trading range of about 200 pips over that timeframe.

I happen to agree with the earlier posts which speculated on the buyers and sellers being one and the same. From the technical side it's not that hard to do, and it is one of the mandates of central banks to keep their currency at a stable level. Remember that this pair is really locked into a extreme tight range, and if you have enough assets it's easy to influence this range with a little creativity.

One thing that has changed (at least on this board) is that more and more traders are posting things like "If it gets back to my entry price, I'm getting out of this dead horse...etc.." which is exactly what any central bank would love to have...making their currency unattractive to speculation.

Good work SNB! Who said the Swiss can't deal with money?
  • #3,393
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:12am Mar 7, 2012 8:12am
Commericals are still short as they are unsure of the outcome of europe and sending all the money to CHF.

Europe if at all stable will be in Sep/OCT when elections are done and some stability come regarding polices drawn till than if there is no intervention Verbal or monitory, I expect its good for some painful scalping only.

Yes if you are doing only scalping there may be chance of missing big bus if it happens although I think it will break floor once before going up when can't say as there is so much news out of europe, Iran war could be any big news day
Bets are on Monday or Friday.
Let's C, Jordan is still not coming out of verbal
  • #3,394
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:16am Mar 7, 2012 8:16am
Bank sources report offers between 1.2051s and 1.2057s.Buy stops above. Bids start in 1.2045.
  • #3,395
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:26am Mar 7, 2012 8:26am
http://www.snb.ch/en/ifor/media/webtv/id/webtv

It is working now
  • #3,396
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:34am Mar 7, 2012 8:34am
Quoting Simon73
http://www.snb.ch/en/ifor/media/webtv/id/webtv

It is working now
Please paste if anything significant
Link doesn't work at my office place

Media report is already there..
  • #3,397
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:35am Mar 7, 2012 8:35am
Quoting coolkaps4u
Please paste if anything significant
Link doesn't work at my office place

Media report is already there..
It is German language
  • #3,398
  • Mar 7, 2012 8:43am Mar 7, 2012 8:43am
Quoting Simon73
It is German language
Yeah.. some is in english in media releases pdf file

SNB: Hildenbrand replacement proposal within next few weeks.
  • #3,399
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:06am Mar 7, 2012 9:06am
Nothing much from the news conference, the wait continues....
  • #3,400
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:10am Mar 7, 2012 9:10am
Quoting multi888
Nothing much from the news conference, the wait continues....
Oanda has also suggest position

Position
At
Open/Close
Target
Stop
LONG
1.2049
2012-03-06T16:20:00
1.2105
1.1999
We are long at 1.2049, layers of support have formed around 1.2010/1.2040 (200-day moving average/February 24 low). An eventual break above 1.2085 (February 21 high) will accelerate further up towards the 30-day upper bollinger-band (1.96 standard deviations, 1.2101) in coming sessions. (MM)
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