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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #302,481
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:15am Mar 7, 2012 3:15am
Quoting smikester
ADP today at 13:15 GMT. I'm not expecting major moves before that.
yes i agree.
also not easy to find supply at these levels and demand looks shy for the moment...
still waiting a move to 5753 to see if possible short again but looking at moves i think i will wait another 1-2 hours!
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  • #302,482
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:20am Mar 7, 2012 3:20am
Quoting bguguen
Australia's lower than expected GDP is a sign of a slowdown in global growth, as china also lowered its growth expectations...
Risk aversion is coming back real fast, as you can see in Gold, XAUUSD dropped before a chance to attept a higher high XAUUSD @ $2000

Market is still in a trend of Risk Aversion, Buy up USD and CHF and JPY (becareful with JPY though... its a somewhat semi-risk averse currency now that BOJ has stated its intention to control the currency if it gets too strong)
Quality post. Maybe take a look at the TED spread which has been over 0.2 for some months now? Have equities reached a temporary peak? With countries considering slowing down and stopping QE and even some (jokey?) rumours of interest rate rises, expect equities to slide and dollar strength.

I will worry about my USD/JPY longs a little (off 76.37) but of the JPY pairs it is the one to hold.

Where does this leave cable? Well, only slightly stronger than the Euro and my bearish candle note here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post5419248 seems to be playing out now. At the time everyone on this thread was bullish and I was in the minority, even bullied into admitting to a possibility of 1.6 again. I now feel vindicated as the failure to even test 1.6 properly was bearish.

Which brings me to this (weekly) and so does not affect bullish day traders: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post5419214 is on the way to playing out to the lower 1.5's at least. Just let me find a bearish H1 candle on a pull back and let it ride.
Gone to a better place
  • #302,483
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:26am Mar 7, 2012 3:26am
Quoting smikester
Quality post. Maybe take a look at the TED spread which has been over 0.2 for some months now? Have equities reached a temporary peak? With countries considering slowing down and stopping QE and even some (jokey?) rumours of interest rate rises, expect equities to slide and dollar strength.

I will worry about my USD/JPY longs a little (off 76.37) but of the JPY pairs it is the one to hold.

Where does this leave cable? Well, only slightly stronger than the Euro and my bearish candle note here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post5419248...
Indeed smikester we have been minorities in the thread for some time but we need to understand with the rally up... reports from CFTC reported that shorts on EURUSD and GBPUSD are closed out last week... Shorts on those pair tanked like 50% or stuff last week... this gives people chance to reload more shorts... soo the rallys up to 5900 in GBPUSD is a stop hunt rally...

and i did mention about the whole conspiracy going on in IRAN nuke threat... total BS is what i said and im glad Obama is taking it serious... Finally Obama taking the heat up to Fat Ben...

Anyways GBPUSD... clear of immediate support at 1.5660 opens up way to 5450 and 5210
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #302,484
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:45am Mar 7, 2012 3:45am
personally i like going long or short when things are good for what i need to see. i can't afford some 100-200 or more pips drawdown, it is counter my own character...
actually i'm out coz things are bit mixed at my eyes and m5 chart not helping me as usually happens in the nfp's week.

what i would say is to be careful in being biased one side, once or the other price will kill.

btw... what caused yesterday's down move?! i mean was there any fundamental reasons or simply the equities' buy mania since last week?!

EDIT: overall i'm for the downside these days but there is something not clear and if down below 5650 there is a wall in 5615 and another stronger wall between 5590 -5550 ;-)
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  • #302,485
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:50am Mar 7, 2012 3:50am
nice work at 5751
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  • #302,486
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:58am Mar 7, 2012 3:58am
Still 3 hours to ADP, so far from what I see in 4 hours it appears that my support turned resistance 5730-50 area can't be penetrated signalling that we will see it lower. If that happens, my next reasonable target will be 5640-60 area for TP. The next will be 5530 area, suppose that we have strong enough sellers to push it there. Anyone start building LONGs for the long term ?
  • #302,487
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:01am Mar 7, 2012 4:01am
Quoting _BBKing_
personally i like going long or short when things are good for what i need to see. i can't afford some 100-200 or more pips drawdown, it is counter my own character...
actually i'm out coz things are bit mixed at my eyes and m5 chart not helping me as usually happens in the nfp's week.

what i would say is to be careful in being biased one side, once or the other price will kill.

btw... what caused yesterday's down move?! i mean was there any fundamental reasons or simply the equities' buy mania since last week?!

EDIT: overall i'm for the downside...
I would say that 5640-50 area is a strong support, my option if it goes lower than that is waiting for the right price action to buy. I haven't seen those hiding buyers order though . I don't check fundamentals much these days. Some of them really sucked big time for me.
  • #302,488
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:03am Mar 7, 2012 4:03am
Quoting _BBKing_
personally i like going long or short when things are good for what i need to see. i can't afford some 100-200 or more pips drawdown, it is counter my own character...
actually i'm out coz things are bit mixed at my eyes and m5 chart not helping me as usually happens in the nfp's week.

what i would say is to be careful in being biased one side, once or the other price will kill.

btw... what caused yesterday's down move?! i mean was there any fundamental reasons or simply the equities' buy mania since last week?!

EDIT: overall i'm for the downside...
Purely technical from what I can see
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  • #302,489
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:08am Mar 7, 2012 4:08am
Quoting 0rPhioZ
I would say that 5640-50 area is a strong support, my option if it goes lower than that is waiting for the right price action to buy. I haven't seen those hiding buyers order though . I don't check fundamentals much these days. Some of them really sucked big time for me.
ehehhe yes i agree. if i would be a buyer for some 1000-2000 lots i would not certainly try to do before the 1.55 - 1.56 levels. unless something really changes in fundamentals next days.
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  • #302,490
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:12am Mar 7, 2012 4:12am
Cable in H4 Chart...

Reversal was coming, but in (Grey) Triangle - Cable potential to Break.
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Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #302,491
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:27am Mar 7, 2012 4:27am
5 x fibs 5757-66, a previous minor 1hr swing lo zone 5756-66 and the DP (5763) @/above current daily hi.

G/L
ex member
  • #302,492
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:28am Mar 7, 2012 4:28am
4 hr chart, retesting 200ema and descending 1 hr TL.
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  • #302,493
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:32am Mar 7, 2012 4:32am
Quoting Ill-b-back
4 hr chart, retesting 200ema and descending 1 hr TL.

nice to see u post
  • #302,494
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:37am Mar 7, 2012 4:37am
short in planned area.
sl @BE now
TGT 5710 (...) will close manually if no good
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  • #302,495
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:40am Mar 7, 2012 4:40am
1hr shows the prev minor 1hr sw lo and fibs below....

G/L
Attached Image
ex member
  • #302,496
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:40am Mar 7, 2012 4:40am
Quoting _BBKing_
short in planned area.
sl @BE now
TGT 5710 (...) will close manually if no good

...5710 have another position waiting to be filled.....
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  • #302,497
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:42am Mar 7, 2012 4:42am
Quoting nAVIN2007
nice to see u post
Cheers bro, out of my 5pm curfew time though
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  • #302,498
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:43am Mar 7, 2012 4:43am
Quoting _BBKing_
...5710 have another position waiting to be filled.....
Closed out my longs at your short entry
Tired now, goodnight...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #302,499
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:47am Mar 7, 2012 4:47am
Intraday players doubtless long till then...some may still be ?..how strong are the bulls here ? or are the position players shorting the rally stronger ?

Double osma reg immed bearish div at the current daily hi.

G/L
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ex member
  • #302,500
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:48am Mar 7, 2012 4:48am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Closed out my longs at your short entry
Tired now, goodnight...
well done! good place where close longs! no matter if more up later, actually that area to be tested for supply!
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