Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1730 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

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Trade What You See And Not What You Hope 0 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #34,581
  • Mar 6, 2012 8:31am Mar 6, 2012 8:31am
Thanks for sharing your exit strategies, Trotty. They make good sense. The real hurdle I need to get over is that I know all these things, but probably as a result of being burned too many times in the past (I've been trading fx live for nearly 4 years now), I find myself taking the profits too early rather than stick to my plan. Mark Douglas calls it "accepting the risk"

Not being emotionally attached to the position is the hardest thing. I find myself looking for an exit once a trade starts going green. Walking away is a good solution to this! It sounds ridiculous writing this, but it's the hardest part for me.

I think overtrading has also been an issue and another part of the same problem. I used to keep the 1 minute chart open to "perfect" my entries, but now see that it's not necessary. It only made me jump in and out unnecessarily. So I've taken it off my platform since re-reading the thread and 15min is the lowest timeframe for me now. I'm also just using the ma's that have been suggested here. I'm thinking of taking the volume off my charts as well, as it's not part of the strategy, and a whole massive, subjective issue in itself. I found it helped with 1 minute charts, but with higher timeframes for me, with my feed, it's not that helpful. I think my motto should be " Don't try to be a smartass! Keep it simple"

The results are looking a lot more promising already.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,582
  • Mar 6, 2012 8:54am Mar 6, 2012 8:54am
Quoting Trotty
Exits are a big issue when you move away from trading silly systems with defined stops and take profits. Once you begin trading price action setups, you then are at the mercy of your own judgement if you don't have a strict trade management approach.

Some Ideas. Target your next obvious area of support/resistance for your ultimate TP, maybe taking a portion of your position off at 1:1 or at your first potential problem area.

Take profit 1 at 1:1 and then trail your stop up with each closed positive candle. In strong moves, you can catch a good...
one of the finest post i've seen lately on FF. kudos to you
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #34,583
  • Mar 6, 2012 8:55am Mar 6, 2012 8:55am
Quoting Trader131
Thanks for sharing your exit strategies, Trotty. They make good sense. The real hurdle I need to get over is that I know all these things, but probably as a result of being burned too many times in the past (I've been trading fx live for nearly 4 years now), I find myself taking the profits too early rather than stick to my plan. Mark Douglas calls it "accepting the risk"

Not being emotionally attached to the position is the hardest thing. I find myself looking for an exit once a trade starts going green. Walking away is a good solution to...
Seems like you are well and truly on the track to enlightenment my friend

A lot of what you are saying here rings absolutely true with my earlier days of trading too and still, to an extent, now. I have also spent time fine tuning entries on M1 (which I am actually very good at) but then following the trade on M1 which then gives a whole distorted view on things. There are so many things that we have to iron out along the way but that's what makes it a journey rather than an overnight trip. Nobody ever woke up one morning decided to be a trader and then began making millions immediately

If your entries are good and all you ever shoot for is 1:1, you can grow quickly and compound very nicely indeed. But you need a few good entries a day and a 70-80% win rate to start to make any decent gains. But, you must, must, must make sure that you are getting at least 1:1 on those trades. If you are gunning for more, you may get more 1:0.5% trades and lots at BE but then you will also have some really nice winners too. You just have to make sure that whichever way around it is, you are serving your own interests by at least getting 1:1 R/R overall. If you don't, you'll struggle to grown or maybe even shrink your equity.

You probably know all that though, right? It's a confidence thing though, isn't it? Once you call a few trades right that you let run to 1:3 or 1:4 then you'll do it more often. As long as you lock some profit in along the way, where is the harm? The worst that happens is that you only get SOME profit but the best that happens is that you get MORE! Here's the nub. Where do you get that confidence? Live markets? Absolutely the live markets but if you false start on it do you get back on the bike? If you have 4 trades in one day that all roll back to BE because you didn't take any profit, do you then go back to taking profit early again? It could and may take years for you to develop the mental fortitude to manage the trades in a better way. I became much more confident doing it by using the sim. I can do a whole month of "trading" in one sitting and you get so much more confidence in your ability to hold a winner that way. If you don't want to or have the money to pay for one, I think there is a free one out there "V-Hands" or something rings a bell. I don't know how good it is. if you can afford it, go get one of the paid ones. I keep banging the drum because I think it's the biggest single help any developing trader can do for himself. It changed my trading from half-arsed and disorganised to a much more well oiled machine. You just need to put the time to one side to use it.

BTW, walking away is a good solution early on. Once you can put your stop to break even, put your TP where you think a reasonable target is and then go and do something useful for a few hours. I know because i've been there and it helped me a lot.

Failing all that, just get plastered. it'll calm the nerves and numb the pain if your trade goes wonky
  • #34,584
  • Mar 6, 2012 8:57am Mar 6, 2012 8:57am
Quoting dario1002
one of the finest post i've seen lately on FF. kudos to you
Wow, thanks man. **blushes uncontrollably**
  • #34,585
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:14am Mar 6, 2012 9:14am
Trotty, thanks, I really appreciate your replies. I think we've travelled similar paths, and it's good to hear what's ahead! Your simulator idea sounds like it could help a lot. If I can like you say make a month's worth of trades in a short space of time, and really keep to my rules, be selective with my trades, then the results should speak for themselves, and give me the confidence to control my exits better in the live markets. But being a poorly paid classical musician I'll look for a free program!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,586
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:17am Mar 6, 2012 9:17am
Quoting Trader131
Trotty, thanks, I really appreciate your replies. I think we've travelled similar paths, and it's good to hear what's ahead! Your simulator idea sounds like it could help a lot. If I can like you say make a month's worth of trades in a short space of time, and really keep to my rules, be selective with my trades, then the results should speak for themselves, and give me the confidence to control my exits better in the live markets. But being a poorly paid classical musician I'll look for a free program!
Hey, at least you are doing something you enjoy. I have spent over a decade selling IT solutions to businesses and I hated it 8/9 years ago and I hate it now. Trading will be my ticket out of all that in the not too distant future.
  • #34,587
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:22am Mar 6, 2012 9:22am
Haha, it's funny you should say that- as I tried to change careers about 10 years ago into IT as my wife is also a musician and we wanted at least one of us to have a "proper" job. I paid £4000 for a course, took a few exams, studied for a couple of years , then went into the BBC IT dept in Cardiff for a weeks work experience which put me off completely!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,588
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:23am Mar 6, 2012 9:23am
Not really sure whether or not it's any good. Worth a try maybe:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=70742
  • #34,589
  • Mar 6, 2012 9:25am Mar 6, 2012 9:25am
Quoting Trader131
Haha, it's funny you should say that- as I tried to change careers about 10 years ago into IT as my wife is also a musician and we wanted at least one of us to have a "proper" job. I paid £4000 for a course, took a few exams, studied for a couple of years , then went into the BBC IT dept in Cardiff for a weeks work experience which put me off completely!
Nasty, that £4000 would give your trading pot a nice little boost now, no doubt
  • #34,590
  • Mar 6, 2012 10:19am Mar 6, 2012 10:19am
Quoting Trotty
Nasty, that £4000 would give your trading pot a nice little boost now, no doubt
Absolutely, it would now, but at the time I would have blown it I'm sure. Still, I have a nice shiny IT certificate to show for it...

Looking into that simulator now, thanks. I'm hoping to combine with an mtf indi to be able to see multiple time frames whlst testing, otherwise I don't see the point.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,591
  • Mar 6, 2012 10:24am Mar 6, 2012 10:24am
Quoting Trader131
Absolutely, it would now, but at the time I would have blown it I'm sure. Still, I have a nice shiny IT certificate to show for it...

Looking into that simulator now, thanks. I'm hoping to combine with an mtf indi to be able to see multiple time frames whlst testing, otherwise I don't see the point.
Yeah, if you can't see multiple timeframes, you may as well just not bother.

Good luck
  • #34,592
  • Mar 12, 2012 4:22am Mar 12, 2012 4:22am
Ok, so this is exactly the sort of entry that EO would take if he saw it. It has little to do with the MAs but many of the setups talked about in these pages were just that.

The overall background of the market is fairly bearish right now on most major timeframes. Most significantly though, it consolidated late last week around a previous low and both H4 and H1 showed some bull strength. H1 particularly had a solid bullish close this morning suggesting some upside for now. With no news around, we can just trade the price action without too many worries about fundies getting in the way. The chart shows a clean break of the trendline so we are looking for a place to get in a long. The retest of the back of that trendline, the daily open (white dotted line on the chart) with Friday's low not far away underneath it seemed like a great area to do that. (for fib traders, it's in our fib "trading zone")

Trade is still live but with some taken off now to bank some early profit for the week.
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  • #34,593
  • Mar 12, 2012 5:47am Mar 12, 2012 5:47am
Quoting Trotty
Ok, so this is exactly the sort of entry that EO would take if he saw it. It has little to do with the MAs but many of the setups talked about in these pages were just that.

The overall background of the market is fairly bearish right now on most major timeframes. Most significantly though, it consolidated late last week around a previous low and both H4 and H1 showed some bull strength. H1 particularly had a solid bullish close this morning suggesting some upside for now. With no news around, we can just trade the price action without too...
Second half closed for a couple of pips more as the price action on H1 showed some bearish sentiment. Looks like we will push past friday's low but as always, i'll trade what I see
  • #34,594
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:47am Mar 12, 2012 6:47am
Nice trade , Trotty. I took that one too, my reasons wre slightly different- I didn't have the trendline, but saw the pin touch the 35 and 50 sma, and entered about halfway down the wick of the following candle. Shorting right now, off the 5 ema, having broken some major support stop behind 21 ema (red)
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,595
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:08am Mar 12, 2012 7:08am
Quoting Trader131
Nice trade , Trotty. I took that one too, my reasons wre slightly different- I didn't have the trendline, but saw the pin touch the 35 and 50 sma, and entered about halfway down the wick of the following candle. Shorting right now, off the 5 ema, having broken some major support stop behind 21 ema (red)
Nice work bud

Did that sim prove any use?
  • #34,596
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:20am Mar 12, 2012 7:20am
Thanks for the sim stuff, Trotty. I've set it up to run on 3 separate mt4 programs- quite a lot of faff involved, (ended up wiping off my normal profile by mistake!) but was working all weekend, so have yet to give it a proper go. I'm sure it'll help. Posting charts actually also helps with discipline as you're forced to stick with your plan! Taken half off for 20 pips sl to BE if I get stopped out there'll be another entry.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,597
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:22am Mar 12, 2012 7:22am
chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,598
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:35am Mar 12, 2012 7:35am
4hr view
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,599
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:38am Mar 12, 2012 7:38am
I think we need EG to break north of 84.00 before we break 1.56 in cable. Took some more off at 5609 ahead of the figure
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,600
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:52am Mar 12, 2012 7:52am
I think that last 15min pin has put a spanner in the works for my remaining short. If I could hedge with my broker I'd try a small position long down the wick, reasons being prior pa and round no. support, but this is countertrend, and we've broken major higher tf support, so I'll leave my remaining soldier on the battlefield SL at +3 and see what happens.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
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