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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #301,761
  • Feb 28, 2012 12:24pm Feb 28, 2012 12:24pm
I see a lot of you are looking forward to the news releases tomorrow. For sure they will move the markets, that I can guarantee, BUT be suspicious and ensure that you follow price action.

Here is a classic novice retailer trap based on the BoE QE announcement back in October 2011.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: News.png Size: 73 KB


For this reason, I do not trade the news. I do not enter the market prior to a news release and I wait for price to show me well after the news release before I enter the market again.

All I am saying is that you should be cautious with news releases because a lot of the time they are designed to trap the novice retailers.

P.S. Remember there are two currencies in a currency pair. So GBPUSD is not just about the UK and events occuring in the UK. You must also look at the US and the events occuring in the US.
  • #301,762
  • Feb 28, 2012 12:28pm Feb 28, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting bbakker
I see a lot of you are looking forward to the news releases tomorrow. For sure they will move the markets, that I can guarantee, BUT be suspicious and ensure that you follow price action.

Here is a classic novice retailer trap based on the BoE QE announcement back in October 2011.

Attachment

For this reason, I do not trade the news. I do not enter the market prior to a news release and I wait for price to show me well after the news release before I enter the market again.

All I am saying is that you should be cautious with...
Hit the nail on the head
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #301,763
  • Feb 28, 2012 12:34pm Feb 28, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting bbakker
I see a lot of you are looking forward to the news releases tomorrow. For sure they will move the markets, that I can guarantee, BUT be suspicious and ensure that you follow price action.

Here is a classic novice retailer trap based on the BoE QE announcement back in October 2011.

Attachment

For this reason, I do not trade the news. I do not enter the market prior to a news release and I wait for price to show me well after the news release before I enter the market again.

All I am saying is that you should be cautious...
Thanks for this man.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #301,764
  • Feb 28, 2012 12:52pm Feb 28, 2012 12:52pm
Ultimately currencies are driven on the higher timeframes by macro economic events. My dear good friend, who is a professional trader, started a new thread, to discuss the macro economic events and I suggest that you start reading this thread to get a better understanding. I studied economics, hence why I have a good grasp on this subject.

With regards to the UK and the US, you have to remember that the UK are trying to start to deal with the debt situation, whereas in the US they haven't even started yet. Here is an extract from one of my posts in this thread -

Now the current headline numbers coming out of the US are positive. US growth was positive in the fourth quarter or 2011, elsewhere economies shrank. US official unemployment figures are down, although I am sure if you go out on main street you probably get a different answer to that. It seems that the so called green shoots of recovery are seen in the US which might withhold Bernanke on the old QE3 for now but let's not forget that the US have not even started their spending cuts yet to reign in their ever-growing debt and this will not occur until after the presidential elections in November 2012 for political reasons. So deep spending cuts are scheduled to kick in next January (2013) which will undermine economic momentum. As with the debt ceiling events in Summer 2011 has shown, US politicians are unlikely to be able to agree to avert or rescind many of the cuts and this could amount to a significant shock that could trigger QE3. Therefore, for now, as long as the good numbers keep coming out of the US, Ben will hold off.

Government debt is still increasing in the UK but they have set themselves some targets and it seems that they will reach the total debt expenditure for the 2011-2012 financial year (Starts on April 6th in the UK). The US will continue to increase the debt ceiling, they have no choice and will not even start to tackle their debt problem until 2013.

All these macro economic events show up on the weekly/monthly charts. As I have a full-time job, I focus on the weekly/daily charts. I also think the picture tends to be a lot clearer on these higher timeframes. Ignore these higher timeframes at your peril.
  • #301,765
  • Feb 28, 2012 1:17pm Feb 28, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting Faller
Did III-be-back really post his farewell post the other day?

Are you really gone?

If so.....it was nice to chat with you.

Faller.
Hi bro, lots of fun chatting with you also, always a good swing of ideas. Yeah I'm gone. This place is just way too good and unfortunately too distracting for me and my massage business. It has dropped about 20 percent in the last 4 months and I know exactly why. I get too involved here because it is too much fun chatting and cannot stop myself. Have been trying to leave for 3 months Nd reality of my situation is setting in. Being a dad and provider i need to stop selfishly indulging my passion here and get on with business. Still trading as this is not too distracting for me, just the fun BS I carry on with a bit here (not all BS though). Popped in to say hi and by. All the best to you bro. Take care.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #301,766
  • Feb 28, 2012 1:34pm Feb 28, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hi bro, lots of fun chatting with you also, always a good swing of ideas. Yeah I'm gone. This place is just way too good and unfortunately too distracting for me and my massage business. It has dropped about 20 percent in the last 4 months and I know exactly why. I get too involved here because it is too much fun chatting and cannot stop myself. Have been trying to leave for 3 months Nd reality of my situation is setting in. Being a dad and provider i need to stop selfishly indulging my passion here and get on with business. Still trading as this...
Easier said than done. I am sure you will keep checking this thread and the temptation to join in is going to be great.

Today is exactly 2 years to the day since I joined FF. I have learned a lot since that day I joined and there are some great traders on FF who I have learned from, but with an average of 7.5 posts per day, it is too excessive and it does distract from the day job AND trading.

I am lucky that where I work, we have quite a laid-back attitude, but I have been taking the mickey and it has also affected my work. I have been posting quite a bit in recent days because I have been off work with this shitty virus.

I will continue to post in Verb's thread with my macro economic views and trade setups based on the weekly charts, but apart from that, I too, will try to refrain from chit-chat.

I wish you success with your trading and hopefully business will pick up as you focus on it again.
  • #301,767
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:05pm Feb 28, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting bbakker
Easier said than done. I am sure you will keep checking this thread and the temptation to join in is going to be great.

Today is exactly 2 years to the day since I joined FF. I have learned a lot since that day I joined and there are some great traders on FF who I have learned from, but with an average of 7.5 posts per day, it is too excessive and it does distract from the day job AND trading.

I am lucky that where I work, we have quite a laid-back attitude, but I have been taking the mickey and it has also affected my work. I have been posting...

ahhh u old timer u

theres something great about this thread..! or is just me?
  • #301,768
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:18pm Feb 28, 2012 2:18pm
will close day above 5893? would be great and highest close since 14.11.2011!!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #301,769
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:25pm Feb 28, 2012 2:25pm
i dont trade commodities since some times....
but...
wtf happened today in silver??
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #301,770
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:28pm Feb 28, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting _BBKing_
i dont trade commodities since some times....
but...
wtf happened today in silver??

i remember when i first started trading id have short this mother hard..and it keep coming..provide stress no sleep..adrenaline..

now i sit and just wait for the mofo
man u gotta love trading huh?..one thing for sure it provide stimulation..lol
  • #301,771
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:34pm Feb 28, 2012 2:34pm
Gbp/Usd-1Hour chart-28.02-Update

-Bearish Probability,if 1.581(Weekly Main Pivot,confluence with 200 and 100SMA and Uptrend Line)will be broken and confirmed price could reach first 1.575(confluence between Monthly R1 Pivot and Daily S2 Pivot from Tuesday),and further to 1.572(Key Confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and Uptrend Main Dynamic Support Line).

This would be a good level for a Bullish continuation of the Uptrend on 1Hour and 4Hours charts.

-Bullish Probability,if 1.581(Weekly Main Pivot,key confluence with 200SMA,100SMa and Secondary Uptrend Line)will hold the uptrend on 1Hour chart,price could move upside to reach first 1.593(Daily R2 Pivot from Tuesday),and further to 1.597(Key confluence between Monthly R2 Pivot and Weekly R1 Pivot)before a bearish retracement.

TO YOur Success,
Doctortyby - Tiberiu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_GBP_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 29 KB
  • #301,772
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:43pm Feb 28, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
i remember when i first started trading id have short this mother hard..and it keep coming..provide stress no sleep..adrenaline..

now i sit and just wait for the mofo
man u gotta love trading huh?..one thing for sure it provide stimulation..lol
stimulation? trading is my drug!!
some days i find really hard to trade, but this is due to my actual situation in last 2 weeks and most last 2-3 days, i missed a lot of good opportunities! so, less drug for me = no good!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #301,773
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:49pm Feb 28, 2012 2:49pm
tomorrow price will probably clean a lot of positions!
i will be out whole day, maybe some scalps in the morning...

good luck you all!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #301,774
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:08pm Feb 28, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting _BBKing_
tomorrow price will probably clean a lot of positions!
i will be out whole day, maybe some scalps in the morning...

good luck you all!

we are making way..hopefully i can start trading descent time span..after this with a bit of luck
  • #301,775
  • Edited 4:25pm Feb 28, 2012 4:15pm | Edited 4:25pm
GBP will be at 1.65xx soon.
  • #301,776
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:27pm Feb 28, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting JTattheRanch
GPB will be at 1.65xx soon.


As we talked about today.....more bullshit calls without and charts, evidence, or intelligent talk -

Great call big boy! You will be a hero when it reaches 1.65xx soon as all the newbies in here will probably fall you LONG call.....

Good for you.

Read back a few posts and see what we were talking about -

Let's keep it real please.

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,777
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:28pm Feb 28, 2012 4:28pm
another bullshit call by you....thanks...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...98#post5423298
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,778
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:29pm Feb 28, 2012 4:29pm
and another BS call...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post5319368
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,779
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:34pm Feb 28, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting Faller
As we talked about today.....more bullshit calls without and charts, evidence, or intelligent talk -

Great call big boy! You will be a hero when it reaches 1.65xx soon as all the newbies in here will probably fall you LONG call.....

Good for you.

Read back a few posts and see what we were talking about -

Let's keep it real please.

Faller.
Ignore them mate. He isn't the first and certainly won't be the last. Any noob following them deserve to lose their money. Best to put them on your ignore list.
  • #301,780
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:40pm Feb 28, 2012 4:40pm
Quoting bbakker
Easier said than done. I am sure you will keep checking this thread and the temptation to join in is going to be great.

Today is exactly 2 years to the day since I joined FF. I have learned a lot since that day I joined and there are some great traders on FF who I have learned from, but with an average of 7.5 posts per day, it is too excessive and it does distract from the day job AND trading.

I am lucky that where I work, we have quite a laid-back attitude, but I have been taking the mickey and it has also affected my work. I have been...
Thx very much bb, I hope you are feeling well soon and all the best for your trading future. Take care
Come with me if you want to live....
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