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EUR/CHF

  • #3,221
  • Feb 28, 2012 7:07am Feb 28, 2012 7:07am
sell sell ...
Ok, wait to act now SNB? ...October Festival is not in this moment.
I think that SNB wait the moment for berny finish the Q3. If the market will go up, and Europe will go to heaven, then SNB will don't act.
When the SNB want to kill $, Berny will send then a racket and send CHF to 1.000 again next year.
Why to act Snb? ..... .. the market will sell CHF and Eur/Chf will go to 1.25 without SNB intervention.
" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #3,222
  • Feb 28, 2012 7:38am Feb 28, 2012 7:38am
Quoting Memnonxxi
sell sell ...
Ok, wait to act now SNB? ...October Festival is not in this moment.
I think that SNB wait the moment for berny finish the Q3. If the market will go up, and Europe will go to heaven, then SNB will don't act.
When the SNB want to kill $, Berny will send then a racket and send CHF to 1.000 again next year.
Why to act Snb? ..... .. the market will sell CHF and Eur/Chf will go to 1.25 without SNB intervention.
Why to act SNB? They should buy a ticket to Tokyo and ask Azumi and Noda masters to teach 'em a lesson. The momentum of EUR up +450 pips has clearly lost, they could benefit from the liftoff. Just look at USD/CHF.
  • #3,223
  • Feb 28, 2012 8:09am Feb 28, 2012 8:09am
Quoting Cuso
Another reason I see the SNB ready to act is the following information:

http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/e...cial/data.html

If you look at the CPI & PPI for the last 4 months, the Swiss economy is showing an accelerating move into deflation.

What better reason to turn on the (printing) presses?
So you are long EURCHF with your own, friends and family money plus a loan from a bank?
  • #3,224
  • Feb 28, 2012 8:09am Feb 28, 2012 8:09am
Quoting pipxster
Why to act SNB? They should buy a ticket to Tokyo and ask Azumi and Noda masters to teach 'em a lesson. The momentum of EUR up +450 pips has clearly lost, they could benefit from the liftoff. Just look at USD/CHF.

When you have to defend the peg its obvious that its better to do this with 1.20 than lets say 1.30. Money is always money....
  • #3,225
  • Feb 28, 2012 8:18am Feb 28, 2012 8:18am
Quoting Askandia
So you are long EURCHF with your own, friends and family money plus a loan from a bank?
As always I've got a plan, and am sticking to it. I'll add a couple more lots at 1.2035 if we see it later today.

It's hard not to overleverage this trade, but if we get down to 1.2020 again I'm selling the house...
  • #3,226
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:17am Feb 28, 2012 9:17am
they know more ?

see what coming?
  • #3,227
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:31am Feb 28, 2012 9:31am
Quoting Cuso
As always I've got a plan, and am sticking to it. I'll add a couple more lots at 1.2035 if we see it later today.

It's hard not to overleverage this trade, but if we get down to 1.2020 again I'm selling the house...
We are playing the same game.
  • #3,228
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:36am Feb 28, 2012 9:36am
Quoting tunera
We are playing the same game.
I think 99.99% of retail forex traders are playing the same game. So if historical statistics are any good we are all going to die soon on this EURCHF trade. May God have mercy on our souls.
  • #3,229
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:39am Feb 28, 2012 9:39am
Quoting Askandia
I think 99.99% of retail forex traders are playing the same game. So if historical statistics are any good we are all going to die soon on this EURCHF trade. May God have mercy on our souls.
Yes i agree something looks strange, but.. i think even in this trade most of retail traders may end up loosing, i see the typical looser situation now like this:
price start to go up, 50pips.. 100pips.. traders take their profit, other 50-100pips, most of traders taken the profits, some start to sell.. other 50-100pips, many sell, and from there to 1.32 99,99% of retail traders loose from the sells.

mmmm
  • #3,230
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:47am Feb 28, 2012 9:47am
Quoting tunera
Yes i agree something looks strange, but.. i think even in this trade most of retail traders may end up loosing, i see the typical looser situation now like this:
price start to go up, 50pips.. 100pips.. traders take their profit, other 50-100pips, most of traders taken the profits, some start to sell.. other 50-100pips, many sell, and from there to 1.32 99,99% of retail traders loose from the sells.

mmmm
I agree, 99% should just buy a lottery ticket and watch Oprah. Better chances there at the end of the day.
  • #3,231
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:59am Feb 28, 2012 9:59am
Hi,

(12:30 pm ET), SNB (acting) head Jordan will speak in Zurich. Let the games begin.

Peace
Adam
  • #3,232
  • Feb 28, 2012 10:11am Feb 28, 2012 10:11am
As long as we're guessing about the future....

1). The next ECB LTRO comes and the EZ banks (which at this time enough liquidity have) buy CHF (sell EUR) to secure their capitol.

2). This pushes the rate below the 1.2000 floor, which triggers a monster amount of stops.

3). Before the SNB can stop the spike, the rate reaches 1.1950 and has triggered my secondary long entry orders.

4). The EUR/CHF rate climbs back above 1.2020 and stabilizes. The SNB takes credit for the successful defence of the 1.2000 floor.

5). Lots of traders sit in the corner, scratching their heads, and licking their wounds.

Of course something totally different could happen!
  • #3,233
  • Feb 28, 2012 10:25am Feb 28, 2012 10:25am
Quoting Cuso
As long as we're guessing about the future....

1). The next ECB LTRO comes and the EZ banks (which at this time enough liquidity have) buy CHF (sell EUR) to secure their capitol.

2). This pushes the rate below the 1.2000 floor, which triggers a monster amount of stops.

3). Before the SNB can stop the spike, the rate reaches 1.1950 and has triggered my secondary long entry orders.

4). The EUR/CHF rate climbs back above 1.2020 and stabilizes. The SNB takes credit for the successful defence of the 1.2000 floor.

5). Lots of traders...
That's a pretty good guess. Although I reckon it would blow the credibility of the SNB out of the water if price does drop below 1.2 this time at least. I'd rather have a buy order at 11850 iso 11950 with the amount of reported stops below 1.2. Happy trading all.
Adam
  • #3,234
  • Feb 28, 2012 10:42am Feb 28, 2012 10:42am
Quoting Tkgod4fx
That's a pretty good guess. Although I reckon it would blow the credibility of the SNB out of the water if price does drop below 1.2 this time at least. I'd rather have a buy order at 11850 iso 11950 with the amount of reported stops below 1.2. Happy trading all.
The last COT data showed that the number of longs have come off a little, and I want to make sure I get in...if this scenario would play out.

Realistically, I don't think the SNB can afford a failure on the floor test at this time. They would lose any remaining political leverage that they have.
  • #3,235
  • Feb 28, 2012 10:59am Feb 28, 2012 10:59am
Live link SNB site?
  • #3,236
  • Feb 28, 2012 11:14am Feb 28, 2012 11:14am
Quoting coolkaps4u
Live link SNB site?
www.snb.ch

Here you will be find the text in pdf format at 18:30 Swiss time
  • #3,237
  • Feb 28, 2012 11:16am Feb 28, 2012 11:16am
It's funny, 15 min to Jordan's speech but absolutely no reaction in the market.
  • #3,238
  • Feb 28, 2012 11:19am Feb 28, 2012 11:19am
Quoting Simon73
www.snb.ch

Here you will be find the text in pdf format at 18:30 Swiss time
There is live link also, not working on same website.
  • #3,239
  • Feb 28, 2012 11:19am Feb 28, 2012 11:19am
Quoting Blue.Trader
It's funny, 15 min to Jordan's speech but absolutely no reaction in the market.
I beg to differ, it spiked 6.1 pips in the last hour.
  • #3,240
  • Feb 28, 2012 11:20am Feb 28, 2012 11:20am
Quoting Cuso
I beg to differ, it spiked 6.1 pips in the last hour.

haha...6.1 pips, wow that's great!!!
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