EUR/CHF

1.25 in 3 months without breaking floor possible?

Who knows what the price will be in three months, by now I know that close to 1.20 there are a lot of institutional buyers that do the SNB job, as long as that holds there is no need for SNB to act and as long as they keep the pair flat all the retail shorts will be discouraged by the negative rollover so I belive that the next move is a short squeeze to stay within range.

price action will be similar to UJ... some time flat within a narrow range and then a big spike up, don´t think that SNB will have to intervene this mkt again.

OK, with all this consensus on the SNB not letting the peg break, who are those people who constantly buy CHF and drive the rate down?

In my opinion, this should be some bigger central bank(s) who take advantage of this opportunity to turn their Euro/Dollar foreign reserves into the more stable franc.

What do you think about this conjecture? If the seller were a central bank, would it be possible that SNB does not know this?

CHF is being bought by commercial speculators. For further information and explanation look here:
http://barchart.com/futures/cot.php

http://s14.directupload.net/images/120226/4ysp5u45.png

Commericals have no reason to long on this pair.
AS they have lot of money to give any CB tough time

They make money both ways

Retails/small are the one which get crush.. Smart money is Commercials.. why CB wants to fight

actually, the chart show that commercial are buying chf (for example, selling eur-chf, and not buying the pair), and yes mostly commercials buy what go down and sell what go up, but in this case the chf is getting high, and large traders are selling it (commercials buying), this is something very weird.

EUR/CHF at 1.1965 right now???

http://forex.tradingcharts.com/chart...er=1h&sub=Save

Its not the case buying which goes low and sell which goes high.
They have business to do..
see what they did to JPY earlier when all were long..
They see interest and normally retail and commercials on the other high.

I would say.." They buy high also and sell low also"
They hedge and business driven

tp @1.20200

http://www.xe.com/
use this one, is more reliable

I cannot understand why there are still people that believe the peg put by SNB can be break at least not in the near term. I know many people who regretted not buying the pair when SNB initiated the peg loosing the rally up to 1.24. Also i remember many investment banks and other analyst saying back in August 2011 that there is no chance that SNB will introduce a peg!!!!

Of course there is the old saying never fight the market but in this case the market is the SNB!!!! In the contrary to previous pegs that have been broken (see Argntina, UK, Thailand) SNB is not trying to raise the price of the local currency by selling other forreign currencies and creating artificial demand for the local (depleting in that way its foreign reserves). In the contrary,it sells the local currency and gets other currencies in return.

To put it in a sipler way so some of you finally understand: Lets say there is a company (central bank) which need every day to have a certain amount of sales in the market in order to keep the shareholders(investor) satisfy and not sell their shares(currency). In the cases that the peg was broken that company(Central bank) saw its sales (exchange rate) falling and in order to keep it to acceptable levels it had to buy its own products using the company's cash(foreign reserves) . The result was that after a certain time it run out of cash and the company went broke(peg broken). However, in the case of SNB things are the other way. There is a high demand for its product (local currency) and as long it has unlimited amount of this product (print money!!!!) it can always satisfy the market . It only problem that may face in the future is the increased inflation !!!which is nowhere near at this point. As a result this company can not be broken as long it has the willingnes to satisfy the demand!!!!

At this point its true that market is very close to 1.20 but i excpect SNB to intervene sometime next week.

As for those that expect the peg to be broken during Asian times when SNB is asleep ...well you mustnt read the last intervew of Jordan . He explicity said that SNB is watching the market and is ready to act from week opening in Asia till the week closing in US !!!!!!

The only way that the peg could be broken is if there is a political decision taken which will restrict the act of SNB to buy unlimited amounts or a european coutry default(unecxpectebly) on its debt and create uncertainty about the future of the whole European Union.

Finally for all of those that believe that SNB will leave the peg to break just a bit below 1.20 and then interevene in order to punish all the retailers that are long EURCHF i have to say that this it makes no sense. Central banks have broblems with speculators that go against their target . In this case the bad guys are those who buy the CHF (short the EURCH pair) and not those who sell it!!!!!!!!

It is possible that the pairmay go down up to 1.20!!!! but no more although this makes no sense either since it will cost ore for the SNB to defend this level.

So all you shorts grow up and stop hopping for a miracle. There is still time to close your position and get to the long side of the pair ;-)

It is correct!

Vaporas,

I totally agree with you and I could not have said it better.

As we know, small retail traders like us have zero influence on the rate. So, the constant downward dips in the EURCHF should come from elsewhere, not ignorant retail traders.

It was explained above that it is the commercial speculators - obviously people with a lot of money - who bet against the ability of SNB to print money. Do you think that they have not thought of your and mine arguments?

Can it be that they know something, which we do not know? This is the only thing that stops me from buying as many lots as I can at 1.2040. And I guess all of you.

And last - SNB does seem to intervene: http://t.co/JBHyCHtW

Can it be that they know something, which we do not know? This is the only thing that stops me from buying as many lots as I can at 1.2040. And I guess all of you.


It is a good point the one you made . I have thought also myself and i came to the following conlusionsfor the recent rise of the CHF

1. Many traders have a huge ego. So in this case they just leave their emotional to decide and believe that can bit the market since trading is what they do. Dont forget that Paulson (yes the great hedge fund manager that got rich from subrimes bet ) made a very wrong bet afterwards and lost almost the whole amount that had invested in a chinese company a year later (i think its called chinoforest or something). another example is Bill Gross who had lost most of the last year rally in treasuries and had to publicly admit that he was wrong. What i am trying to say is that even big players some time get it wrong and this i believe is the case on the eurchf pair.

2.There are real flows from foreign banks that have lend chf the years before to retail and now the have to buy CHFs to repay each month a certain amount

3. Maybe indeed they are is a political decision to be announced in later weeks that politician may intervene in the job of SNB.

In the third case everything is changed and probably the peg wont last. However in the first two cases the affect in the pair will be very short lived

The link doesn't say anything. The guys seems to be running rumors
USD/CHF not bid by SNB. If there is bid by SNB , it will be EUR/CHF they can't bid all the pairs specially if something big news come and and USD down all across, they will not buy USD.

I agree with rest.
If they intervene, use cautiom

Do you really believe that? Be honest...

will it reach 1.21 or1.200 ?

ur question really like a comedy

Probe ordered against jordon so his credibility is also issue.
He can't intervened big, May be his wife is trading as well..

So, we have to wait till next SNB president.

Market knows these facts so they may try to test jordon