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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #301,481
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:22pm Feb 25, 2012 3:22pm
Quoting bbakker
What you failed to notice is the higher lows. All trends come to an end, so how do you spot the end of a trend and this is applicable to any timeframe?

I did not fail to notice the higher lows....I think you are referring to the 10 year chart...however I see those higher lows if that is what you want to call them......as a bear flag. We can all google what a bear flag is.

On the 5 year chart if you want to totally ignore the huge drop from November 2007 to January 2009 and only want to look from the high in August 2008....the pound has only made lower highs since that time.

On the 2 year chart I see a nice head and shoulders pattern as described in my previous post.....

And finally you can click here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post5418984 to see my month chart that I posted late Friday which shows rejection at around the 1.5900 level multiple times.

No fighting here guys.....just my own personal thoughts. We all have our own thoughts...I am not pushing my thoughts on anyone else.

Cheers,

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,482
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:42pm Feb 25, 2012 3:42pm
GU has broken 1.58976 resistant level. The next resistant level is 1.59270. My guess is - the trade can still rally to 59270 and then pullback to 50% Fib retracement of 1.58265 which is 100 pips.
  • #301,483
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:54pm Feb 25, 2012 3:54pm
If this happens....... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sau...rts-2012-02-25


If they release strategic oil reserves....there will be a heavy crude pullback and if correlation is in play....USD will be UP - Euro down and GBP down and so on and so on.....

Interesting to see what comes out over the weekends!

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,484
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:59pm Feb 25, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting Faller
No fighting here guys.....just my own personal thoughts. We all have our own thoughts...I am not pushing my thoughts on anyone else.

Cheers,

Faller.
I'm not looking for a fight mate and of course we all have different views otherwise it would be a pretty boring market! We're here to share thoughts and I can see where you are coming from with some solid technical arguments.

Personally, I am not a fan of the H&S chart pattern especially on the higher timeframe. If it is a flag, for the pattern to complete, it should be a pole-flag-pole where the pole are about the same distance and that would indicate a short target below parity, which I find hard to believe, but nothing is impossible. I think this chart pattern works much better on the smaller timeframes. I agree that we are also seeing lower highs, so yes we are technically in a pennant.

Currently we are in a daily range and as the immediate trend (before this 4 week range) was up, I think supply is consumed at 1.59 and we are heading to 1.60 before we drop as per my chart I poste earlier, but I could be wrong. One thing is for certain and that is the market is always right.

Time will tell who was right with their analysis but whatever happens, hopefully we can all profit from it. I wish you success with your trading.
  • #301,485
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:59pm Feb 25, 2012 3:59pm
And more news from the G20.....


German cabinet minister calls for Greek euro exit....and.....America’s opposition is fiercest, with the White House making clear it won’t contribute more to the IMF. “What we don’t want to see is the IMF substitute – and it really cannot substitute – for a stronger European response,” US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...euro-exit.html
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,486
  • Feb 25, 2012 4:06pm Feb 25, 2012 4:06pm
The WWIII is not far: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/coloni...lectors-greece

Kyle Bass recent video puts everything into perspective: http://www.armadamarkets.com/market-info/videos/

So we are all pretty much f*cked, at least those of us living in Europe. And good luck to Germans as soon everybody will point their finger towards them. Kind of like before the WWII.
  • #301,487
  • Feb 25, 2012 4:10pm Feb 25, 2012 4:10pm
All good my friend.....I only posted that I do not want a fight because some people get so pissed when others have an opinion that is different then their own.

Thank you for being professional in your tone and response. And I do see your points as well.......and as I also said earlier.....we can only see into the future so far......the markets will put the price where it needs to be.

Cheers my friend!

Faller.


Quoting bbakker
I'm not looking for a fight mate and of course we all have different views otherwise it would be a pretty boring market! We're here to share thoughts and I can see where you are coming from with some solid technical arguments.

Personally, I am not a fan of the H&S chart pattern especially on the higher timeframe. If it is a flag, for the pattern to complete, it should be a pole-flag-pole where the pole are about the same distance and that would indicate a short target below parity, which I find hard to believe, but nothing is impossible. I think...
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,488
  • Feb 25, 2012 4:15pm Feb 25, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting Askandia
The WWIII is not far: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/coloni...lectors-greece

Kyle Bass recent video puts everything into perspective: http://www.armadamarkets.com/market-info/videos/

So we are all pretty much f*cked, at least those of us living in Europe. And good luck to Germans as soon everybody will point their finger towards them. Kind of like before the WWII.
Don't forget your tinfoil hat to protect you from the nuclear bombs... lol
  • #301,489
  • Feb 25, 2012 5:08pm Feb 25, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting Faller
All good my friend.....I only posted that I do not want a fight because some people get so pissed when others have an opinion that is different then their own.

Thank you for being professional in your tone and response. And I do see your points as well.......and as I also said earlier.....we can only see into the future so far......the markets will put the price where it needs to be.

Cheers my friend!

Faller.
hope all is well with yah bro?..good to see u in here
  • #301,490
  • Feb 25, 2012 5:33pm Feb 25, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
hope all is well with yah bro?..good to see u in here

Thanks Navin....all good here......just doing some weekend reading - now just getting the kids out of the bath - going to make them some popcorn and a fruit smoothie and we will watch a little bit of Hockey Night In Canada!

Cheers my friend - and thanks for selling all those condoms!!!! Making people making people happy!
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,491
  • Feb 25, 2012 7:41pm Feb 25, 2012 7:41pm
The potential for further BoE easing, as highlighted by the more dovish-than-expected MPC minutes, will likely keep the pressure on the downside for sterling/dollar," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "We look to sell sterling on rallies."

The above comment is from this article - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...8DO13220120224

Interesting to see what banks are saying.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,492
  • Feb 25, 2012 8:15pm Feb 25, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting Faller
The potential for further BoE easing, as highlighted by the more dovish-than-expected MPC minutes, will likely keep the pressure on the downside for sterling/dollar," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "We look to sell sterling on rallies."

The above comment is from this article - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...8DO13220120224

Interesting to see what banks are saying.
Hi Faller,
Something that has been on my mind for quite a while. When we win a trade, who are we taking money off? Is it other traders, brokers, banks? A combination of all 3? I hear about stop hunts etc and wonder who is it who wants us to lose and why? Do you know about this? I just trade, win, lose etc without looking any further into it?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #301,493
  • Feb 25, 2012 10:30pm Feb 25, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hi Faller,
Something that has been on my mind for quite a while. When we win a trade, who are we taking money off? Is it other traders, brokers, banks? A combination of all 3? I hear about stop hunts etc and wonder who is it who wants us to lose and why? Do you know about this? I just trade, win, lose etc without looking any further into it?
Hi mate, I'll try to answer your questions according to what I understand. sorry if I'm wrong.

As in any trade, gains or losses that we get is from the difference in price. Of imbalance between supply and demand. The profit you take is because you buy from the person who willing to sell at low price, then you sell to the person that willing to buy at higher price. and vice versa for a loss.

When there is a very large demand while supply is very small at a certain level price, then the price will rise strongly. And vice versa.

No matter how much you participate in the supply side or demand side, as long as the balance has not reached, then the price will keep moving until the price level that seller/buyer willing to sell/buy.
When you're in the right position then you will profit. If not then you will suffer a loss, because you'll crushed by its force. Thus, no one is actually make you lose, unless you yourself are wrong to take a position.

In order to more fully understanding, I suggest you read also the Forex Market Structure. sorry if it sounds very basic.

Hope it helps.
  • #301,494
  • Feb 25, 2012 11:01pm Feb 25, 2012 11:01pm
[quote=gsantri;5419968]Hi mate, I'll try to answer your questions according to what I understand. sorry if I'm wrong.

As in any trade, gains or losses that we get is from the difference in price. Of imbalance between supply and demand. The profit you take is because you buy from the person who willing to sell at low price, then you sell to the person that willing to buy at higher price. and vice versa for a loss.

When there is a very large demand while supply is very small at a certain level price, then the price will rise strongly. And vice versa.

No matter how much you participate in the supply side or demand side, as long as the balance has not reached, then the price will keep moving until the price level that seller/buyer willing to sell/buy.
When you're in the right position then you will profit. If not then you will suffer a loss, because you'll crushed by its force. Thus, no one is actually make you lose, unless you yourself are wrong to take a position.

In order to more fully understanding, I suggest you read also the Forex Market Structure. sorry if it sounds very basic.
Hope it helps.[/QUOTE
Thx gsantri, yeah I do understand this bit, I just hear things like banks stop hunting, brokers stop hunting etc and it complicated the matter for me. Banks looking to square their books is one I have heard many times before and I just thought, what's it matter if we are just trading with others. Banks providing liquidity, I don't know if this means they take the risk of our trade and it's power of leverage etc (ie. trading 1 lot do they lose $10/every pip gained etc). Lots of questions. I'll read the info, thx again gsantri.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #301,495
  • Edited 5:42am Feb 26, 2012 5:07am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Thx gsantri, yeah I do understand this bit, I just hear things like banks stop hunting, brokers stop hunting etc and it complicated the matter for me. Banks looking to square their books is one I have heard many times before and I just thought, what's it matter if we are just trading with others. Banks providing liquidity, I don't know if this means they take the risk of our trade and it's power of leverage etc (ie. trading 1 lot do they lose $10/every pip gained etc). Lots of questions. I'll read the info, thx again gsantri.
well imho you're on the right path.
There are basically two types of brokers, the Dealing Desk (DD) and No Dealing Desk (NDD).

Pictures below could explain further, that DD brokers could passed on the order, find/match with other clients or even counter-traded your positions. Although its still hard to believe that one broker would be able to moves the price only to chase your SL lol..

While NDD passed all straight to the interbank market.

source: Different Types of Brokers
.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dealing-desk.png Size: 227 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: no-dealing-desk.png Size: 254 KB
  • #301,496
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:27am Feb 26, 2012 5:27am
Quoting gsantri
well imho you're on the right path.
There are basically two types of brokers, the Dealing Desk (ND) and No Dealing Desk (NDD).

Pictures below could explain further, that DD brokers could passed on the order, find/match with other clients or even counter-traded your positions. Although its still hard to believe that one broker would be able to moves the price only to chase your SL lol..

While NDD passed all straight to the interbank market.

source: [url="http://www.babypips.com/school/different-types-of-brokers.html"][b]Different Types...
Right, thx gsantri this clarifies/confirms my thoughts on "a combination of all 3". Thx again, very good of you cheers.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #301,497
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:47am Feb 26, 2012 5:47am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Right, thx gsantri this clarifies/confirms my thoughts on "a combination of all 3". Thx again, very good of you cheers.
Your welcome Sir
  • #301,498
  • Edited 7:41am Feb 26, 2012 7:18am | Edited 7:41am
Quoting Faller
The potential for further BoE easing, as highlighted by the more dovish-than-expected MPC minutes, will likely keep the pressure on the downside for sterling/dollar," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "We look to sell sterling on rallies."

The above comment is from this article - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...8DO13220120224

Interesting to see what banks are saying.
...
All I have to say is -

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=343916

The 1.3460 buy stop is where I think they have started to sell EU, but I haven't got a clue of their real intentions. Maybe they needed buyers to sell to and what better way of doing it then sending out a call like this for the novice retailers so that they can pick up all those juice buy stops. Drive price up to these buy stops and then start selling.

Do you really think that the institutions are going to show you their playing cards... I didn't think so. Of course MS is looking to sell the rallies

Saying that, maybe MS are looking to sell, so they say sell now and put your buy stop at 1.60x, creating a bear trap. Then they drive price up to this level to pick up all those buy stops to sell into and then sell, sell, sell till 1.54. Looks very similar to my chart that I posted yesterday

They didn't actually stipulate any entries, stop losses or profit targets in this news article. The statement "We look to sell sterling on rallies" is ambiguous at best.

Anyway, who cares what they think or write. I trust my own analysis.
  • #301,499
  • Feb 26, 2012 7:21am Feb 26, 2012 7:21am
Quoting gsantri
well imho you're on the right path.
There are basically two types of brokers, the Dealing Desk (DD) and No Dealing Desk (NDD).

Pictures below could explain further, that DD brokers could passed on the order, find/match with other clients or even counter-traded your positions. Although its still hard to believe that one broker would be able to moves the price only to chase your SL lol..

While NDD passed all straight to the interbank market.

source: [url="http://www.babypips.com/school/different-types-of-brokers.html"][b]Different Types of...


NDD is also commonly known as ECN (Electronic Communications Network)
  • #301,500
  • Feb 26, 2012 8:15am Feb 26, 2012 8:15am
Quoting bbakker
All I have to say is -

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=343916

The 1.3460 buy stop is where I think they have started to sell EU, but I haven't got a clue of their real intentions. Maybe they needed buyers to sell to and what better way of doing it then sending out a call like this for the novice retailers so that they can pick up all those juice buy stops. Drive price up to these buy stops and then start selling.

Do you really think that the institutions are going to show you their playing cards... I didn't...
And Morgan and Stanleys "stated" 1.346 "SL" just got hit, "what a surprise"
Come with me if you want to live....
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