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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #301,401
  • Feb 24, 2012 5:23pm Feb 24, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting Faller
Look what I found.....
Still short long term bro?... Slanted Bearish H&S this time? PA for the last run up to the top today hints to me we are heading higher. Will get some drawdown though but not too much I don't think.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #301,402
  • Feb 24, 2012 5:54pm Feb 24, 2012 5:54pm
Weekly
The Weekly t/f candle closes as a 2nd consecutive bullish hammer/PB and the Low of last week now becomes a fractal swing Low with the close of this week's candle. This t/f is still in somewhat of an overall price action (opa) range but is looking more bulish than bearish off the recent 5243 lo
Daily
The Daily t/f remains in it's opa rangy consolidation between 5927 and 5643 but after Thursday and Friday's strongly bullish candles after the retest of the previous swing hi/lo zone down to 5643, and the weekly candle close, the probability has to be skewed toward an upside break of that range as Friday's Hi breches the previous fractal LH on this t/f. Price breeched the steepest remaining descending trendline on this t/f and made a high on Friday at/or around the next descending t/line on this t/f but no close above it yet.
4Hr
A 3rd fractal HL and a HH at Friday's Hi now on 4hr as this t/f is in a steep opa uptrend off the recent 5647 lo. Friday's Hi @ 5698 breeched the 85.4% fib of the 5927-5643 move and indeed the last 4hr descending trend line. Although the close was above that t/line, price did not close above the 85.4% fib as profit takers came in the last hour of trading resulting in the last 4hr candle being quite bearish of itself.


G/L
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ex member
  • #301,403
  • Feb 24, 2012 6:13pm Feb 24, 2012 6:13pm
To the immediate upside of Friday's closing price (next Week's Weekly and Monday's Daily Pivots calculted.)

5875-5885 Daily t/f descending trend lines coming thru on Fri's Daily candle
5886 85.4% 5927-5643
5897 Friday's/Last week's Hi = minor previous 1hr swing hi 5890-97
5906-16-27 prev 4hr/1hr sw hi zone incl 5924 = 50% 6617-5234
5938 Daily R1 @/around
5946 76.4% 6165-5234
5961/62 Monthly R1 @/around/Weekly R1 @/around
5966 85.4% 6091-5234
5986/89 2 x fibs incl 50% 6746-5234
5999 85.4% 6130-5234
6007 Daily R2 @/around
6030 85.4% 6165-5234
6055 Weekly R2 @/around
6073-92 incl 6087 = 61.8% 6617-5234
6103-15-30 prev Dly/4hr sw hi zone incl 6125 = Weekly R3 @/around
6136-65 prev Wkly/Dly sw hi zone incl 6158 = Monthly R2 @/around and 6163 = 76.4% 6454-5234
6167 61.8% 6746-5234
6185 Daily R3 @/around

G/L　
　
ex member
  • #301,404
  • Feb 24, 2012 6:31pm Feb 24, 2012 6:31pm
.
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  • #301,405
  • Edited 6:57pm Feb 24, 2012 6:37pm | Edited 6:57pm


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the white line is my small cone which can be seen at 1H...and pair broke it earlier with bearish move..

the red larger line is my big cone which can be seen at DAILY high swing 1.6165 & low swing 1.5423...you can see pair touched the bottom red cone..
hence, pair broke both my bottom and top small cone and now it has already broke the big cone top red line..
based on everybody traditional experince, breaking the top resistant level means high signal in upward movement right?
but...i said but...the pair did not closed above that level..so it was a shorting pressure right..
but what in my head now, if the pair break the swing high 1.5927 of my small cone...THEN it is certain pair going north...so monday decides everything...scalper benefits for now..
I trade to live
  • #301,406
  • Feb 24, 2012 6:59pm Feb 24, 2012 6:59pm
Quoting blackstar
.
what indi are you using bro?
I trade to live
  • #301,407
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:02pm Feb 24, 2012 7:02pm
Quoting UbuFamily


Attachment

the white line is my small cone which can be seen at 1H...and pair broke it earlier with bearish move..

the red larger line is my big cone which can be seen at DAILY high swing 1.6165 & low swing 1.5423...you can see pair touched the bottom red cone..
hence, pair broke both my bottom and top small cone and now it has already broke the big cone top red line..
based on everybody traditional experince, breaking the top resistant level means high signal in upward movement right?
but...i said but...the...
I agree bro, a big up move like that will bring done consolidation before going somewhere next. Scalpers day monday...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #301,408
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:05pm Feb 24, 2012 7:05pm
Quoting Faller
Look what I found.....

I trade to live
  • #301,409
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:06pm Feb 24, 2012 7:06pm
If that last 4hr candle (on this charting) is the start of a pullback, I wonder whether it may target the previous swing hi zone shown, this zone is the previous 4hr/1hr swing hi zone around Wednesday's Hi and contains 38.2% of the 5647-5898 move up (@ 5802) as well as 50% of Friday's 5720-5898 move up (5809) and 85.4% of the shorter 5792-5898 move up (5807,) as well as the new Weekly Pivot @/around 5804.

May feel like more but only 87% of the 20 week atr was covered in the week just closed.

Time will tell.

G/L
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ex member
  • #301,410
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:16pm Feb 24, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I agree bro, a big up move like that will bring done consolidation before going somewhere next. Scalpers day monday...

yup bro! ha ha ha did you see my chart I still have not close that girlfriend's short!!! damn its 200+ pips now!!
I trade to live
  • #301,411
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:22pm Feb 24, 2012 7:22pm
Quoting UbuFamily
what indi are you using bro?
They're T3MAs which are like the moving averages of moving averages set to multiples of 3s and 9s Volume factor .5

Ribbons:
Green: 6 & 9
Red: 27 & 36
Orange: 180 & 270
Blue: 540 & 810
Purple: 1080 & 1620

Single lines:
Yellow: 45
Blue: 90
Red: 360
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 T3MA.mq4   3 KB | 182 downloads
File Type: mq4 kino_T3MA ribbon filled.mq4   3 KB | 203 downloads
  • #301,412
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:43pm Feb 24, 2012 7:43pm
@UbU Family

Nice looking chart - here I will post a couple of charts as to what I am looking at......I took a short late day only to take it off the table minus 15 pips.....but I kept watching price action towards the 5PM EST close and noticed how sellers kept coming in around that 1.5900 level. So I zoomed out on my charts to take a better look at my support and resistance levels and noticed the same rejection bars at the same or close to the same level and I also compared that price action to the couple of indicators that i use and noticed that the indicators were stretched out along with the price being stretched out. Now a stretched out indicator does not mean price has to move one way or the other but it can give you guidance when you compare indicators to price action and overall trends and market sentiment.

I am not a swing trader as I have posted before - I trade intra day and 90% of the time I close all my positions out by the end of the day. However, even though I took a loss late day on an attempt at a short - I assessed the charts one more time after I closed for a loss and decided to enter a short one more time based on all of the rejection bars in relation to my indicators and over all price action at the current price level. Now price can do whatever it wants as we all know - but this is a very good risk reward entry as we can see solid resistance and if we break that resistance well I guess you get stopped out...if the rejection today is like the previous 3 rejections price pulled back 175 pips, then 285 pips, then 250 pips. So even a pullback of half of the average would still be a 120 pips move.

That's all I have to say for now.....good weekend to all. Enjoy the charts.

Faller.
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I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #301,413
  • Feb 24, 2012 8:25pm Feb 24, 2012 8:25pm
Quoting blackstar
They're T3MAs which are like the moving averages of moving averages set to multiples of 3s and 9s Volume factor .5

Ribbons:
Green: 6 & 9
Red: 27 & 36
Orange: 180 & 270
Blue: 540 & 810
Purple: 1080 & 1620

Single lines:
Yellow: 45
Blue: 90
Red: 360

Ohhh so kind of you thank you thank you man..
I trade to live
  • #301,414
  • Feb 24, 2012 11:07pm Feb 24, 2012 11:07pm
Weekly
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  • #301,415
  • Feb 24, 2012 11:08pm Feb 24, 2012 11:08pm
zoomed-in, zoomed-out charts.
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  • #301,416
  • Feb 24, 2012 11:09pm Feb 24, 2012 11:09pm
I doubt I could have picked a worse place to enter and there is going to be some decent drawdown, but still have a very bullish overall biase. Bearish divergence on 15min timeframe and below. I am hedging down on monday to 5840 first then 58.
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #301,417
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:45am Feb 25, 2012 3:45am
Classic patterns of bearish regular divergence in the oscillators to 30min t/f at Friday's hi - with price coming off those highs into the close.

More pullback ?

G/L
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ex member
  • #301,418
  • Feb 25, 2012 4:12am Feb 25, 2012 4:12am
Quoting Faller
Look what I found.....
Joking apart, there is a complex reversal pattern forming and it is on the weekly (search engine: complex head and shoulders). I like patterns because they give us a reference point or points. If the pattern completes, it is easy to trade off - if it fails, likewise. Pin bars (Hammers etc) are the most obvious. Everybody and his brother will pile into a pin bar trade and when it fails, which they often do, even off strong S/R zones, the move is very strong. Interestingly, a pin bar is often a head and shoulders formation on a lower time frame.

Weekly chart:

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The above a classic example of dynamic support and resistance patterns after a rally - we can see that this pair has been making consistently lower highs and lower lows on the weekly time frame. This is not to trade off, you understand, but to give us a framework to refer to.

The steeply sloping blue line on the chart is the 200sma. We are still trading below that on the monthly, weekly and daily.

Next post: the daily 200 ma. Stay tuned.
Gone to a better place
  • #301,419
  • Edited 4:29am Feb 25, 2012 4:15am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting smikester
Joking apart, there is a complex reversal pattern forming and it is on the weekly (search engine: complex head and shoulders). I like patterns because they give us a reference point or points. If the pattern completes, it is easy to trade off - if it fails, likewise. Pin bars (Hammers etc) are the most obvious. Everybody and his brother will pile into a pin bar trade and when it fails, which they often do, even off strong S/R zones, the move is very strong. Interestingly, a pin bar is often a head and shoulders formation on a lower time frame.

Weekly...
Quoting nAVIN2007
same levels different time
Quoting nAVIN2007
same levels different time
same chart different time..wonder how many actually took notice of my chart..
nice observation my friend..glad u thinking like this

the diverence i have posted is the small one..theres another one present which is playing out..if u cant spot it let meh know
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  • #301,420
  • Feb 25, 2012 4:43am Feb 25, 2012 4:43am
I see what you are getting at but I don't see how that analysis gives a bullish probability, given that 1.59 is the strongest S/R level on that chart, but you have not given it a line.
Gone to a better place
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