EurAnalysis

Yes excellent kno I urge everyone to listen to that especially from 5 minutes on wards!

About the short well as Jim said this is the biggest kick of the can down the road but in the shortest space of time! It's only demo too so it doesn't really matter if I used normal MM I'd be out a long time ago..

Yay..
I tot you are not long

4H

It's broken now. Too much momentum. Not a good day for bears. Bring on the bulls. The higher is goes the better the shorting opportunity. 1.3510 next target.

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-z...TDY/h301/1.png

I have 1.3515

Dont fight ... take pending Sale @ 1.3590

Okay let's compromise... 1.35125

Lol..you seem busy with other thing bro ?

Okay I have re-evaluated.
Here is my outlook. We are not quite at the top yet, but soon. 1.35xx zone. It depends if we get there today, Sunday night, Monday or Tuesday. Each day will present a lower top. We have to watch and wait.

Weekly Chart...

Now let's take our analysis from yesterday a step further.

Deutsche Bank trades on US stock exchanges and so has to publish SEC filings on its balance sheet risk. Well, according to Deutsche Bank's own filings, it had 1.6 billion Euros' worth of credit exposure to Greece at the end of 2010. True, this is credit exposure not direct exposure to sovereign debt... but it's still four times what the Guardian claims to the case.

More interesting that this, the term "Greece" is only mentioned twice in Deutsche Bank's 2010 416-page annual report. Remember, this was the year in which the Greek Euro Crisis nearly took the system down: between January 2010 and June 2001, when the first Greek bailout was announced, the Euro lost 17% if its value. Worldwide, stock markets cratered despite central bank intervention. And it was only the Fed's promise of QE lite and QE 2 that got the global equity rally rolling again.

So it's a bit odd that Deutsche Bank's 2010 416-page annual report would only mention the term "Greece" two times. Regardless, let's fast forward to Deutsche Bank's Third Quarter 2011 filing (its most recent) for some more recent data.

This time around, the term "Greece" shows up six times in the 100-page report. And this time around Deutsche Bank states it has 881 million Euros' worth of exposure to Greek sovereign debt (TWO TIMES what The Guardian claimed).

By the way, Deutsche Bank has only 59 billion Euros' worth of shareholder equity, so this position alone is worth roughly 1.5% of the banks' equity. True, this is not a huge percentage, but if Greek creditors take a 70-80% haircut, Deutsche Bank would need to raise capital.

On a side note, I want to point out that we're completely ignoring the fact that if Greece defaults so will Italy and Spain whose sovereign debt and financial institutions Deutsche Bank has 14.8 BILLION EUROS worth exposure to: an amount equal 23% of Deutsche Bank's TOTAL EQUITY.

But let's just focus onDeutsche Bank's exposure to Greece for now. According to its Third Quarter 2011 filing, aside from the 881 million Euros' worth of exposure to Greek sovereign debt, Deutsche Bank also has 665 million Euros' worth of exposure to Greek financial institutions, and a whopping 1.3 BILLION Euros' worth of exposure to Greek corporates (plus a negligible 8 million Euros' worth of exposure to Greek retails) for a total of 2.8 BILLION Euros' worth of exposure to Greek debt and businesses.

So... having taken our analysis one step further, we find that one single German bank, one of the alleged strongest I might add, has in fact, far, far more exposure to Greece and its economy than both the Bank of International Settlements and the mainstream financial press indicates.

Bear in mind, the numbers presented in Deutsche Bank's are simply those that Deutsche Bank's executives have told the company's accountants are acceptable for public disclosure (we have no clue about the banks off-balance sheet risk).

It's also worth noting that in 2010 Deutsche Bank claimed to have only 1.6 billion Euros' worth of credit exposure to Greece, whereas by late 2011 the number has swelled to 2.8 billion Euros.

I have to ask... how exactly does a bank, which is supposedly managing its risk levels and adjusting its exposure accordingly, manage to increase its credit exposure to something as financially toxic as Greece by 75% in a nine month period?

This hardly strikes me as good risk management. But here's how Deutsche Bank's accountants try to explain that none of this (even the 2.8 billion Euros' worth of exposure) is a big deal (click on image for larger version).
https://phoenixcapital.infusionsoft....nload?Id=31835
If the above chart sounds like it's written in obfuscating language, let me translate it for you. According to Deutsche Bank's accountants, once you include collateral held (likely garbage assets valued at mark to model fantasy land valuations), guarantees received (from GREEK institutions!?!?!), and "risk mitigation", Deutsche Bank's "actual" exposure to Greece drops from 2.8 billion Euros to only 1.2 billion Euros.

So... this is a bank whose credit exposure to Greece increased by 75% as the Greek Crisis worsened from 2010 to 2011... now claiming that thanks to their risk management, their "real" exposure to Greece is only 1.2 billion Euros.

Ok, well if we're going to play by those rules, let's consider that when we include the rest of the PIIGS countries, Deutsche Bank's "actual" exposure (as downplayed as it might be) is still 35 BILLION Euros, an amount equal to 60% of the banks' total equity (click on image for larger version).

https://phoenixcapital.infusionsoft....nload?Id=31839

At these levels, and using the currently proposed Greek 50% haircuts as a model for future defaults in the EU, Deutsche Bank could very easily see 10-15 billion in write-downs from its PIIGS' exposure. This would wipe out 16%-25% of the bank's entire equity and render it borderline insolvent.

And we're talking about one of the biggest, most "solvent" banks in Germany here.

Make no mistake, the situation in Europe is far far worse than 99% of investors realize. Even if the second Greek Bailout is finalized (the details are still emerging) we've still got Italy and Spain to deal with: two problems that are far too big for any of the current troika (ECB, IMF, and EU) to handle.

On that note, if you have not already taken steps to prepare for the next round of the Crisis now is the time to do so while the system is still holding together.

Kno's Comments. I try hard to bring the truth out. That is part of fundamental forex trading. Have a good day and watch EUR/JPY for a move in the other way. Europe goes home soon and this weekend should be fun...

Hi guyz this is my first post here i hope this thread is not restricted by vouchers.
Anyway can someone here help me with some info on volumes . I am weak understanding volumes do they specify ny thing today? Thank you

Just going by the daily chart and a downward channel I slapped together, seems like 1.356x might be a good area to look out for, or maybe even closer up towards 1.36, who knows we'll see.

Hi Myk and welcome.
No, you don't need vouchers to post here. You just need to be a normal human being with self respect, respect towards others and would like to learn and share at the same time.
Please make sure you read page 1 of this thread where you will find the rules and objectives.
While you are on page 1, you will find a resources section full of links to educational information. This is where you will most likely find what you need. If you don't, please feel free to post your questions here.
Cheers
PT

Financial Fascism

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/fascism_1.jpg



Before I get into today’s topic I’d like to hope I helped some of you short sellers this morning when you read the very end of yesterday’s missive, “All of this is interesting and shows some weakness but without real volatility, it may simply be a tiny pullback of no major importance whatsoever. Why? Despite the aggressive selling, long term passive buyers were at the lows buying everything in site.” Although the market went a wee-bit lower after the open, the passive buyers didn’t cancel any orders; all sellers were absorbed and the market went up just as the central banking meddlers ordered it.

In the prior missive I said “In the latest bank bailout via the Greek people, we learned that Puppet Papademos and Company agreed to more austerity for more cash - $172billion to be precise. In order to get this, private bondholders are being forced to accept higher losses without being paid on their insurance policies (CDSs), the ECB accepts no losses, the ECB retroactively changed all bond language so they wouldn’t lose money which radically changes all bond sales going forward, and Greece will be placed under a new wicked type of Financial Fascism by the EU that will make all decisions for the people of Greece.”

As it turns out, the Financial Fascism is worse than I thought and is getting worse by the day. Sure, I understand that if one “borrows” money one must have collateral that would be coughed up if the loan goes sour but let’s get real – none of that applies here. The Greek people are paying for bad loans made by the European banking syndicate to pay back the very same banking mafia, which was all promised by crooked politicians.

Excuse me, but aren’t the “bankers” said to be so unbelievably intelligent that nobody should ever question their actions as that would indeed question their intelligence? Isn’t it odd that when these same scum-sucking bankers make horrifically bad loans based on the KNOWN lies of known low-life politicians that all of a sudden we’re supposed to feel bad for the banking mafia’s losses? Oh, and then all of a sudden the people who had no say in the ridiculous loan arrangements have to pay for them?

I’m sorry but this is where I get ticked-the-f*c#-off, because the answer today is FINANCIAL FASCISM! The people of Greece, NOT the politicians, are paying the ultimate price. And guess what Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and others – this is your future!
According to the FT (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/fde0e3d4-5e3b-11e1-85f6-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Ffde0e3d4-5e3b-11e1-85f6-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fglobaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com%2F#axzz1n2tUh4yi)

“European creditor countries are demanding 38 specific changes in Greek tax, spending and wage policies by the end of this month and have laid out extra reforms that amount to micromanaging the country’s government for two years, according to documents obtained by the Financial Times.

“Among the measures that must be completed in the next seven days are reducing state spending on pharmaceuticals by €1.1bn; completing 75 full-scale audits and 225 value added tax audits of large taxpayers; and liberalising professions such as beauty salons, tour guides and diet centres.”

You see that folks? The Financial Fascists are taking away granny’s meds. Let’s take a detour for a second and consider the USSA. Do you think we can avoid this just because we’re the formerly known country: USA? How is it that the laws of finance stop at the shores of the USSA? Just because our super-large military would make John Holmes (read: other countries) blush by comparison? Really? I seem to remember that Rome, Spain, and England had that same “super-large military” complex. How’d that work out for them in the long run again? Oh wait, but this time its different, right?

By the way, there is an election coming up soon so if you do NOT want financial fascism in this country I would suggest that you vote out the current loser in office, regardless of their indifferent D or R affiliation. Just my 2-cents. Then again, I highly doubt that even that would work in this sickeningly corrupt country. (Not one bankster is behind bars for the housing scam and/or 2008 collapse, etc)

Back to the sacking of Greece…


According to the New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/22/world/europe/euro-zone-leaders-agree-on-new-greek-bailout.html?_r=2 Greece may be forced to give up its gold. Said another way - the banking mafia is getting exactly what it wants: Greece’s hoard of 111 tonnes of gold.

In the fine print of the 400-plus-page document — which Parliament members had a weekend to read and sign — Greece relinquished fundamental parts of its sovereignty to its foreign lenders, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

“This is the first time ever that a European and probably an O.E.C.D. state abdicates its rights of immunity over all its assets to its lenders,” said Louka Katseli, an independent member of Parliament who previously represented the Socialist Party, using the abbreviation for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Ms. Katseli, an economist who was labor minister in the government of George Papandreou until she left in a cabinet reshuffle last June, was also upset that Greece’s lenders will have the right to seize the gold reserves in the Bank of Greece under the terms of the new deal, and that future bonds issued will be governed by English law and in Luxembourg courts, conditions more favorable to creditors.

What happens when the banking syndicate steals the Greek gold and then drops Greece from the EU? Let’s look at a mathematical formula. Greece – gold = Zimbabwe.

Call me crazy but when a bunch of global banking thieves loan money out at interest, they should be responsible for the consequences if said loans go sour. What’s happening, however, is that these bastards are getting away with stealing what’s left of a county’s dignity, assets, and its national sovereignty.

I simply cannot believe that the people of Greece haven’t revolted to the point of a coup d'état – a genuinely new government.



For better or worse, at least the thieving banking mafia wouldn’t be in charge!

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”



Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.

Kno's Comments - It Is Incredible To Read These Articles And Still Realize That People Are Pawns Of The State !!!

UNTIL THEY ARE NOT...

PEACE OUT

That's where I'm focusing... ==> Attachment

Thanks a lot Piptrader i really appreciate Your kind words
I have searched bro . searched baby pips too but couldn't find anything helpful abt volumes .
Anyway i will search it further thanks again

Btw,what is the top prices on weekly?

okay guys after being margin called, i have to revamp my entire system and make a crazy amount back so i will NOT give this thing up (not aleast until i get my money back anyways). Gonna go super technical on this stuff, anyways i realise a short earlier was stupid so i need to work on entry, and i had no SL which was dumb and then i didnt cut the trade cus i 'wanted' a reversal.

So now i have looked at the weekly descending channel, the 61.8% retrace and a psychological number all lie around around 1.3480-1.3580, and the psych would be at around 1.35? So im gonna wait till next week and get in at 1.35.

now if it was my old school of thought i would just say tp to be around 1.26xx? because that is wat i 'want', however i think tp long term is going to be 1.3 for now and then short term around 1.34? anyy thoughts? Anyone else think that it is just gonna DROP big time after this retrace or?

Hello Gentlemen and Gentleladies

Did anyone see this Zerohedge article?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eur-decouples-other-way

I'm hoping that the LTRO announcement next week, or even the run up to it, squeezes out a few more shorts. I didn't think I would get the opportunity to get in again at these levels. Anything close to 1.36 would be a great price.

Pat