EurAnalysis

Clearing the remaining 30% long on eu for 400pips

Before I went back to bed I read the IFR report at 2:55:33 AM.

Their outlook is that steady EUR/JPY demand overnight and since the European return, with the Yen pair pushing to just shy of 1.0800 level as the Asian unit slips. However EUR/USD pair has only been underpinned by the recent high in the cross, with spot only managing to probe to a 1.3385 high. Offers into the 1.3400 barrier rebuffing the advance for the moment but decent bids into the mid 1.33's to keep dips shallow.

Kno's comments: It is important to watch the behaviour of EUR/JPY since if it retraces or reverses it will bring EUR/USD back with it. Risk Off will bring EUR/USD back with it. My main point is to be aware of this factor. USD/JPY trades at 80.54 now with a high at 80.667 and as it weakens (Goes Higher) EUR/JPY goes higher since Yen is Sold and in some cases Euro bought. In March the year end in Japan MONEY is brought back to Japan and the USD/JPY MIGHT move back to 78.00.

Oil is High because of Iran which is a kind of Risk On yet Risk in other respects for the equity markets. Gold is holding near $1,780 US Spot and everything is positive heading to LTRO on the 29TH of February.

The Dow is playing with 13,000 and Green Shoots are back. This is not the case so now the change in PERCEPTION is positive even though the REALITY is negative. The KEY then would be to wait for that news item based on NEW data that will change the PERCEPTION back to the reality. Of course the ECB and the FED want the markets to go higher and they are helping that along by money printing and all types of INTERVENTION to keep things going until the First Tuesday in November.

The Dow Futures are up 37 and the 2 Year US Bonds are at .30% and the 10 Year US Bonds are at 2.00%

Closed 50% trade on ej for 450pips .....50% still running trailing stop 350pips above

Kno have you read Jim sinclair's latest interview on gold? My dad asked me to translate it into leymans English but I couldn't quite figure what he meant.. Perhaps if you get the chance you could try give us a translation thanks!

Nice work buddy...

we say that € / Yen-ahead
€ / $ ...

Thanks buddy

http://www.urbandictionary.com/defin...an%27s%20terms

I will look into it shortly.

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor..._Sinclair.html


Please let me know if this does the job ?

Thanks...

P.S. What happened to Short on EUR/JPY (Smile)

WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Companies With Mineable Ounces Soundest Investment For Coming Volatility


February 22, 2012, at 8:39 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial |


My Dear Friends,
Today was long and enlightening for me. I made multiple meetings in New York City with significant money managers.

During these meeting the price of gold rose above the $1764 level which I have repeatedly told you is as important as $524.90 was when gold broke out of its arithmetic up trend and entered its first power up trend. I wish to remind you $1764 is the point where gold moves out of its power up trend and enters into its geometric uptrend. I have also assured you the central banks and especially the US Fed via the BIS and Exchange Stabilization Fund seek not to depress gold, but only to prevent it from running so hard on the upside as to expose the true condition of Western world finance.

There has been significant interventions in the gold price at Angel $1764 with unexpected other central bank accumulation resulting in inexplicable strength in the $1710-$1720 area.

As the strong dollar policy is clearly a policy of softening a long term decline, the interventions in gold have been to modify a desire in the market itself to go ballistic on the upside.

If there was any startling realization today it was that among true geniuses and maturity in major money managers there is a grave lack of understanding concerning the forces at work in the financial can kick of the century now about to take place.

Only one person today knows that the war with Iran starts when Iran is frozen out of the Swift system. In terms of finance, that is a nuclear attack. It was just that threat alone that made Swiss banks destroy their tradition of privacy and send their loyal clients to a mass execution, assuming that they were cheating on taxes.

Not one person I spoke to today ever asked themselves who determines if credit event is a default and what that means to the mountain of credit default swaps that US banks have vended via their non US subsidiaries. By this method the count of these OTC derivatives by the US Controller of the Currency is way short of the true amount of debt insurance banks have sold.

Only one man understood what a commodity currency was and had studied where currency induced cost push inflation had produced severe price inflation during periods of awful economic conditions brought on by all types of debt failure.

I am speaking with leaders in finance who control immense sums of money. If these people do not understand the forces at work what makes you think politicians or their college professor appointees to central banks have a better understanding? The answer is simple – they do not!

Let me share with you the conclusion I took away from today’s luncheon.

1. What is going to happen is going to take place in March somewhere between the 14th and 20th in all probability.

2. What will determine the fate of markets is what action China does or does not take in providing funds to IMF bailout funds.

3. I believe China can and will extract significant trade and other benefits for their presence.

4. I believe China will want the same immunity that the IMF just took for themselves on sovereign debt in liquidation.

5. Greek gold will be held hostage to their debt.

6. That will accelerate the modest trend of repatriation of gold for the cellar of the New York Fed to nations like Germany that are certainly able to store their own wealth.

7. There will be an acceleration in the trend of utilization of other currencies than the dollar for contracting internationally regarding goods, service, oil and minerals.

8. I do not agree that we are at the doorstep now of major changes in the international monetary system. That comes in June of 2015.

9. I am certain that we are on the immediate threshold of the monster kick of the financial can down the road that is a dead end.

10. I believe China and the US Fed will assist in that great last can kick that backfires.

11. I am certain that I am in the right business and that business is the identification and accumulation of gold as gold is the ultimate survivor of what is about to happen.

12. I am certain the gold industry is mad as a Danbury hatter in selling their product the moment they produce it.

13. I am certain the gold and silver industry is in a transition back to the dividend producers they once were.

14. I am certain that the volatility in gold, silver and equities we have already seen is nothing compared to what is about to happen.

15. The last man standing among asset categories as the new monetary system is introduced sometime post June of 2015 will be gold and gold alone.

Therefore the soundest investment now is what I, and others (McEwen) are doing in building companies whose inventories of goods to be sold are mineable ounces of gold and other precious metals in the ground moving towards production.

The immense shorts in this industry group are whacked out noobies without a clue.

New mines need never pollute. Old mines can never be cleaned up. Open pit and surface enrichment is the type of gold that will be least effected by rising costs.

Respectfully,
Jim

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...larity-of-gold

Snippet:

For four decades following the end of the gold standard, the purchasing power of the dollar has been plunging: A dollar worth 100 cents in 1970 is now valued at a measly 18 cents.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...Since-1971.jpg

Charles isn’t the only one opposed to the Fed’s “monetary manipulation.” In his latest letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett faults the government and its “systemic forces” for destroying the purchasing power of investors. He argues stock investments offer the best long-term investment opportunity because interest rate levels don’t offset the loss of purchasing power due to inflation.

However, there is one group that benefits from the low interest rate environment—borrowers. This means the largest borrowers in the world, developed world governments, will be able to service their enormous amounts of debt more easily. This year alone, the U.S., Japan and Europe will roll over $8 trillion in federal debt.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...8-Trillion.gif

CIBC World Markets sees the secular bull market in gold continuing for “several years,” as the firm believes debt in major economies has reached a point “where financial and economic pressures will manifest themselves in ways that have up until now only been dreamed about.” With these manifestations, Ian McAvity equates gold to insurance. He suggests to readers that they wouldn’t cancel fire insurance because their house hasn’t had a fire. “Gold proffers the best ability to protect long-term purchasing power against deliberate devaluation of the paper alternatives,” he concludes.

For evidence of this, one needs to look no further than the significant gold purchases by central banks over the past few years. Emerging markets’ central banks have been the strongest buyers, experiencing a record increase in gold purchases last year. After building up their reserves during most of the post-World War II period, central banks’ gold holdings remained stable. Following the end of the cold war, they began a selling spree, helping to “explain bullion’s profound price weakness” during the 1990s, says HSBC Global Research.

The trend started to reverse about the same time the Fed cut interest rates in 2007, says Adrian Ash from Bullionvault. Now, total gold holdings sit at a six-year high with the total current amount of gold reserves sitting around 31,000 tons. In 2011 alone, the WGC says central banks had a net purchase of 440 tons, the highest figure since 1964.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...den-Buddha.jpg

As the story goes, when the Buddha was moved to a new temple in the 1950s, it slipped from the crane and fell. That night, a monk dreamed the statue was divinely inspired, which prompted him to visit the Buddha image. Through a crack in the plaster, he saw a glint of yellow and the statue’s true beauty was revealed. At today’s [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]price [COLOR=blue !important]of [/color][COLOR=blue !important]gold[/color][/color][/color], the Buddha is worth more than $277 million.

Yeah Upper channel broken and in critical Demand Zone .... not excited about selling though ...will wait for a confirmation bar ...

by Rachael Granby and the Market Currents team
Lloyds posts a loss. Lloyds (LYG) reported a £3.5B pre-tax loss this morning, better than the £4B loss expected. The figure includes a £3.2B one-off provision for repaying mis-sold payment protection insurance. Core Tier 1 capital ratio +60 bps to 10.8%. Income -10% to £21.1B, and expected to fall again in 2012. The company expects 2012 to "remain challenging," citing the "subdued" economy, regulatory scrutiny and market uncertainty. Shares rose at first, reflecting the bank's underlying performance when one-time charges were stripped out, but subsequently sold off as investors took profits. Shares -1.3% premarket (7:15 ET).
AIG profit climbs on tax benefit. AIG (AIG) reported Q4 EPS of $0.82, beating expectations by $0.21. Its net income of $19.8B included tax benefits of $17.7B for Q4 related to the reversal of write-downs it had taken to lower the value of its deferred-tax assets. The company noted it had returned to “sustainable operating profit” as its biggest unit, property-casualty insurer Chartis, and its plane-leasing business both swung to operating profits in Q4. Shares +10% premarket (7:00 ET).
Apple mulls cash uses. At its shareholder meeting yesterday, Apple (AAPL) announced it will require directors to be elected via a majority shareholder vote, meeting the demand of a non-binding resolution passed last year. CEO Tim Cook said the company’s $98B cash hoard is "more than we need to run a company" and reiterated an earlier statement that he is engaged in "active discussions" about what to do with the cash. Cook nixed prospects for a subscription video service or a stock split.
Salesforce.com rises after earnings. Salesforce.com (CRM) reported Q4 EPS of $0.43, beating expectations by $0.03, and revenue of $631.9M, beating expectations by $7.9M. Deferred revenue reached $1.38B, +48% Y/Y and soothing concerns about slowing growth. Unbilled deferred revenue +47% to $2.2B. Sales & marketing expenses +40% to $327.6M. Free cash flow was $195.7M, well above net income of $61.6M. On its earnings call, Salesforce mentioned it won 100 7-figure deals during the quarter (up 4x Y/Y), and nine 8-figure deals, evidence that its efforts to secure enterprise-wide deployments are bearing fruit. Shares +9.8% premarket (7:15 ET).
Apollo nears El Paso deal. Apollo Global Management (APO) is leading a group that is close to buying El Paso's (EP) oil-exploration business for around $7B, sources say, with a deal announcement possible as soon as today. Kinder Morgan (KMI), which has a $38B deal in place to buy El Paso, wants to sell the exploration and production business to help pay for its El Paso acquisition.
Glimmers of reform in China. China should accelerate the loosening of capital controls, says the PBOC in a report that outlines the path to a freely tradable currency and more open capital markets. The timing of the report suggests reform-minded officials may be trying to build momentum ahead of a leadership transition announcement later this year.
No surprises from U.K., German GDP. The latest figures put the U.K.'s Q4 GDP at an unrevised -0.2%, with the year-on-year figure revised down slightly to +0.7% from +0.8%. The full-year 2011 GDP was +0.8%. In Germany, figures were similarly unchanged from preliminary estimates. Q4 GDP was an expected -0.2% M/M, a contraction the government termed a "little setback." On a year-on-year basis, price-adjusted GDP was +1.5% for Q4, and +2% in calendar-adjusted terms.
Moody's warns on Japan. Moody's said it will review Japan's credit rating if the country's plans to double its sales tax are delayed any further. For the time being, Moody's doesn't plan to change Japan's Aa3 rating with a stable outlook because the country's current account surplus helped offset its public debt.
Mead Johnson, Danone team up on bid. Mead Johnson (MJN) and Danone (DANOY.PK) landed permission to jointly bid for Pfizer's (PFE) $10B infant nutritionals business, sources said. The two firms will go up against Nestle (NSRGY.PK) in the next auction round which closes March 5.
Policymaker targets Fed's dual mandate. Rep. Kevin Brady, a prominent House Republican, says he will introduce legislation to focus the Fed on a single mandate to fight inflation and protect the dollar's value, stripping the central bank of its jobs mandate. The "Sound Dollar Act" will be formally introduced in early March.
Citigroup sells Indian lender stake. Citigroup (C) exited its investment in Housing Development Finance Corp., India's largest mortgage lender, for $1.9B. Citi sold 145.3M shares at 657.56 rupees apiece, a 6% discount to HDFC’s closing price yesterday.
P&G to cut jobs, costs. Procter & Gamble (PG) plans to cut 5.7K jobs in 2013 and reduce its costs by $10B by 2016, according to CEO Bob McDonald. The company also reduced its earnings estimates for FQ3 and FY12 based on the impact of the sale of the Pringles brand to Kellogg.
Wynn Macau dumps Okada. Wynn Macau's board voted to oust co-founder Kazuo Okada, effective immediately, due to his "unacceptable conduct" and bribery allegations. Okada is still on the board of parent Wynn Resorts (WYNN) as it will take a special shareholder vote to unseat him.
Crude keeps climbing. Crude oil rose toward $109 this morning, on its way to a third week of gains, as Iranian concerns continue to dominate and some upbeat U.S. data lifted demand outlook. Crude +0.5% to $108.40 (7:00 ET).
Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan +0.5% to 9647. Hong Kong +0.1% to 21407. China +1.3% to 2440. India -0.9% to 17924.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.8%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude +0.5% to $108.40. Gold -0.25% to $1781.80.

Friday's economic calendar:
9:55 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
10:00 New Home Sales
10:45 2012 US Monetary Policy Forum

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...tion_____.html

Snippet:

 

1. Euro well bid; many left scratching their heads
2. On the surface it would seem that the Euro should be lower
3. Upon deeper investigation there is some fundamental sense to the bounce
4. Technical studies have not disputed the Euro bounce and still classify as corrective
5. Still risks to Euro downside ahead, but not just yet
6. Even with medium-term Euro bearishness other currencies more at risk
7. German GDP as expected

Many traders are scratching their heads, wondering why the Euro has been so well bid in 2012 and why it continues to be well bid in the aftermath of an already anticipated Greek bailout that carries with it a lot of uncertainty in terms of execution and potential success. After all, the fallout from the second Greek bailout still leaves many pricing in the very real risk of a default by the nation, with investors also questioning the ability to effectively implement austerity measures. When one adds in the lack of detail on IMF contribution to the bailout, the upcoming Greek elections, the latest bailout hesitancy from the Bundestag, and the latest Fitch downgrade, there really doesn’t seem to be any good reason for the Euro to be so well bid. At most, perhaps some quiet consolidation. Still the Euro has been very well bid and trades to fresh 2012 highs after breaking out of a multi-session consolidation on Thursday. So why is this?

Relative performance versus the USD Friday (as of 11:00GMT)

 

1. GBP +0.34%
2. NZD +0.30%
3. AUD +0.17%
4. CHF +0.13%
5. EUR +0.11%
6. CAD -0.01%
7. JPY -0.71%

What it comes down to seems to really not be about whether there will be more problems ahead for Greece, but more about whether the latest bailout and rescue will hold things together long enough for any fallout (when it does happen) to be less relevant to markets at that time than it would be in the current environment. Right now, the Eurozone and global economy are extremely fragile and any signs of additional stress have been amplified and weigh tremendously on risk sentiment. However, should the latest bailout buy enough time for other areas of the Eurozone and global economy to show a more sustainable recovery, any problems that emerge several months or years down the road become much less concerning to investors. Our colleague, a leading strategist at one of the major US banks says it best in his latest report. “Unless you think that the deal will fall apart in the next couple of months, discussing the implausibility of the 2020 targets is more literature than finance.”He also adds in the report that his conjecture is that most of the negative assessment of the bailout package is irrelevant since there was little expectation either before or after the agreement that Greek debt to GDP will approach 120% in 2020.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...cue-funds.html

Snippet:

The Merkel government is in a delicate situation. It assured the Bundestag in September that Germany’s exposure to EU rescues were capped at €211bn. A major boost to the ESM would push the figure above €300bn, requiring the trauma of a fresh vote. Moreover, Germany’s constitutional court has warned any rescue commitment exceeding one-year’s budget – €306bn in 2012 – threatens stability and may violate Basic Law.

Graeme Leach, the Institute of Directors’ chief economist, said Berlin’s “fiscal compact” to police the budgets of EU deficit states is in no sense a fiscal union. “Germany has not agreed to eurobonds or North-South fiscal transfers. Europe can’t find a solution because there isn’t one.

“There is zero chance that the eurozone will survive in current form this year, and Greece will be out by the summer, just in time for cheap holidays,” he said.

German showdown with IMF looms as Bundestag blocks rescue funds

Germany's ruling parties are to introduce a resolution in parliament blocking any further boost to the EU’s bail-out machinery, vastly complicating Greece’s rescue package and risking a major clash with the International Monetary Fund.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/...l_2148934b.jpg Chancellor Angela Merkel's office said an increase in the ESM was 'not necessary' since Italian and Spanish bond markets have recovered Photo: AP

You might want to check on your channel position.
This is what I have...

Don't Cry For Me Argentina ...

http://rt.com/news/argentina-advice-greece-default-033/

Snippet:

Argentine advice for Greece: ‘Default Now!’


Published: 23 February, 2012, 20:43


http://rt.com/files/news/argentina-a...-protest.n.jpg

A depositor dressed as Death displays a mock cross for Bank Boston 27 March, 2002 during a protest in Buenos Aires (AFP Photo / Ali Burafi)

TAGS: South America, Greece


Here in Argentina, when we watch the terrible things that are happening today in Greece, we can only exclaim, “Hey!! That’s exactly what happened in Argentina in 2001 and 2002…!”

­A decade ago, Argentina too went through a systemic Sovereign Public Debt collapse resulting in social turmoil, worker hardship, rioting and street fights with the police.

Some months before Argentina exploded, then-President Fernando de la Rúa – forced to resign at the height of the 2001 crisis – had called back as finance minister the notorious pro-banker, Trilateral Commission member and Rockefeller/Soros/Rhodes protégée Domingo Cavallo.

Cavallo was the gruesome architect of Argentina’s political and economic capitulation to the US and UK when he was President Carlos Menem’s foreign minister and economy minister in the ’90s.

Menem and Cavallo are primarily responsible for Argentina’s signing of a formal Treaty of Capitulation with the UK/US after the 1982 Falklands War, opening up our economy to unrestricted privatization, deregulation and grossly excessive US Dollar-indebtedness, almost tripling our sovereign debt in a few short years (see my February 11, 2012 article British Laughter in the Falklands).

Snippet:

­Bring back the drach!

So, Greece: Just default on your “sovereign debt”! Just revert to the drachma! Just say “No, thanks!” to the German bankers and the Troika Vultures.

Please, Greece: just say “No!” to your Trilateral Commission president!

You will be setting a strong precedent for your European neighbours. Like Spain, which is hurting so badly right now for similar reasons. Like Italy, with its Trilateral Commission Prime Minister Mario Monti (also Trilateral’s European Chairman!).

Greece, the Cradle of Democracy, can teach the world a lesson in True Democracy by kicking these parasites out of the country, which will hopefully trigger kicking them out of Europe and one day, kicking them out of the global economy.

Because what Greece and Argentina and Italy and Spain suffer today is not True Democracy, but rather a distorted bastard imitation that systematically yields control to the Global Power Masters at the Trilateral Commission, Bilderberg and Mega-Banking Overworld. They run the whole “democracy show”, whereby all countries end up having “the best democracy that money can buy”… which is no democracy at all…

The Money Power juggernaut is steaming full speed towards us all. If Greece falls, who’ll be next? Spain? Italy? Portugal? Argentina (yet again!!!)?

So what if Greece’s reverting to the drachma marks the beginning of the end for the euro? Let Italy revert to the lira, Spain to the peseta, Portugal to the escudo…! A National Currency is a key National Sovereignty factor.

All governments should understand that you either govern for the people and against the bankers; or you govern for the bankers and against the people.


­Adrian Salbuchi for RT
­Adrian Salbuchi is a political analyst, author, speaker and radio/TV commentator in Argentina. www.asalbuchi.com.ar
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the story are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

ready for short bro ?
here I lend you special one
It called The God of hammer
http://screenrant.com/wp-content/upl...nir-hammer.jpg

Not yet. Still long for now.
Let's see what NY trading brings us.

Funny ..that channel adjusted itself after sometime .... no wonder price got a break at that Demand Level ....