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Sonic R. System

  • #30,501
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:09am Feb 9, 2012 8:09am
Quoting sonicdeejay
This kind of mkt define losers 95% and winner 5%,,,

Trade with plan...

I have a CT short and SL 1.332x.. My risk is 70 pips..nothing more,,nothing less..



Sonic

Hi Sonic,

I posted a picture of my trade. It hit my stop loss. Im just wondering how one would avoid such market conditions? I mean, I read TAHs explanation of the BB's looking to cash in on their long positions and driving the market up. but how are we to recognize that such things may occur?

I had a bullish USD bias, I seen a sonic setup, I placed SL above DR but still managed to get my ass kicked.

But im not so sure that i've learnt how to avoid this from happening again.

A little advice would be appreciated.

Many thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 9-2-12.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #30,502
  • Edited 8:22am Feb 9, 2012 8:10am | Edited 8:22am
Quoting pipraiser
Hi TAH,

there have been high volumes on the past 4 candles. High volume on an up candle, high volume on a down candle, high volume on a doji. Large wicks on both sides. Why are'nt the BBs plunging it down yet? They already got to the high prices enjoyed by the asian and london sessions. Same story on GBP/USD and AUD/USD.
Volume climax candles say very intense trading up here. At some point the BBs sometimes let things die down so that pending short orders drift down in the cheque and so do (wrong play) pending long orders. When they see enough profit, they push the price back up hitting stops on shorts and triggering longs into the market, creating the liquidity needed for additional shorting by themselves. One never knows how far the push might go; 100+ pips sometimes when the BBs are in the mood for a monstrous grab, even sometime after a release.

And if we are witnessing the creation of a reversal, things could still get real nasty.

WARNING: Speculation.

-tah
  • #30,503
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:22am Feb 9, 2012 8:22am
Quoting pipraiser
Hey Sonic,

A meetup sounds interesting. Count me in for sure. =)
Count me in too.. Hope u don't mind I'm newbie；）
  • #30,504
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:24am Feb 9, 2012 8:24am
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Necessity to raise SL. More catastrophic than anything else. There is no way to second guess the market, especially the US BBs, when it comes to whipsawing. They can (and have) managed whips well over 100 pips in the past. And they sometimes let things die down, pending short orders drift down in the cheque and so do (wrong play) pending long orders. When they see enough profit, they push the price back up hitting stops on shorts and triggering longs into the market, creating the liquidity needed for additional shorting by themselves. So,...

Thats a great explanation TAH. Thank you very much for that. I see that after having seen such market conditions, it important to properly place the stop loss.

However, I do have a question regarding already being in a trade before this erratic behavior of the BBs.

For example, I was shorting GBPUSD as I noticed a sonicR setup before all this happened. I was USD bullish bias. Placed the trade and then due to all the crazy market conditions, got stopped out...

Should I have been cautious before the event? Is there anything that would have given me a clue that this might happen today? Or is it just something that happens, that I have to live with?
  • #30,505
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:24am Feb 9, 2012 8:24am
Thanks for the explanation TAH! It does makes sense. Seems to me that its best to stay away during these periods of multiple major news releases. I'll discipline myself to do that in future.
  • #30,506
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:36am Feb 9, 2012 8:36am
Quoting pipraiser
Thanks for the explanation TAH! It does makes sense. Seems to me that its best to stay away during these periods of multiple major news releases. I'll discipline myself to do that in future.
Both Sonic and I have previously entered short trades. And I entered a new one. All had/have no hard SL due to the expected whipsawing before/at/after the releases. And there are more USD high impact releases tomorrow!

There is no way to predict where to place a SL. In calmer trading times, a tight SL works. If you get hit you don't give up much. You can look to re-enter with expectancy there won't be another whipsaw. But in times like this, whipsawing can occur repeatedly and when least expected. How many times can a trader afford to have a tight SL hit and then re-enter only to have it hit again (...and again,....and again).

If someone knows good ways to deal with this, then by all means do post them. All I know is that Sonicdeejay sets a wider than normal SL. He posted earlier that his was around 70 pips from his previous entry. And that is usually adequate. The 100+ whips are not common. My concern is that this could be a serious reversal in the making, and that the BBs might try to milk the market in a very nasty way.
  • #30,507
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:01am Feb 9, 2012 9:01am
Quoting superman
Hi Sonic,

I posted a picture of my trade. It hit my stop loss. Im just wondering how one would avoid such market conditions? I mean, I read TAHs explanation of the BB's looking to cash in on their long positions and driving the market up. but how are we to recognize that such things may occur?

I had a bullish USD bias, I seen a sonic setup, I placed SL above DR but still managed to get my ass kicked.

But im not so sure that i've learnt how to avoid this from happening again.

A little advice would be appreciated.

Many thanks
We will have a loss trade along the way..
the mkt swing is just too wild..
My ct short is still swimming & gd nite


Sonic
  • #30,508
  • Edited 9:49am Feb 9, 2012 9:04am | Edited 9:49am
This little fucker is heading home...

1.3360 - 1.3380 area

I´m not shorting before that level.


Regards,
H.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #30,509
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:10am Feb 9, 2012 9:10am
GU:

This might be a measure of when EU finally capitulates.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,510
  • Edited 9:42am Feb 9, 2012 9:16am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting hansma
This little fucker is heading home...

1.3360 - 1.3380 area

I´m holding my shorts till then.


Regards,
H.
....and maybe not. Supply area already reached.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,511
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:37am Feb 9, 2012 9:37am
Quoting traderathome
....and maybe not. Supply area already reached.
I do hope I´m wrong...for you and other shortists

Regards,
H.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #30,512
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:40am Feb 9, 2012 9:40am
Quoting hansma
This little fucker is heading home...

1.3360 - 1.3380 area

I´m holding my shorts till then.


Regards,
H.

Please explain what you mean by "I´m holding my shorts till then." ??

Are you Short E/U currently and holding in till it reach higher at 1.3360 - 1.3380 ??

Don't quite understand what is your meaning in this scenario.
  • #30,513
  • Feb 9, 2012 9:48am Feb 9, 2012 9:48am
Quoting foxybunny
Please explain what you mean by "I´m holding my shorts till then." ??

Are you Short E/U currently and holding in till it reach higher at 1.3360 - 1.3380 ??

Don't quite understand what is your meaning in this scenario.

Sorry if there was confusion. I mean I plan to sell there if price reaches that level.

Regards
H.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #30,514
  • Edited 10:48am Feb 9, 2012 10:29am | Edited 10:48am
Market Comment:

Look at GU, representative (imho) of what is going on in the market.

Yesterday PA was pushed hard down (climax shorting) from supply. Today PA was pushed back up to supply (imho closing longs). And now the market is holding the line so to speak while building short positions at a rate that enables the price to be kept from falling out of this new range area. The next flurry of high impact releases come tomorrow, so there is lots of time twix now and then to finish off loading longs and acquiring shorts. However, at any time climax shorting can resume.

The timing of all of this is something we cannot know, but the way it looks now the next appropriate SonicR setups on USD pairs won't be until tomorrow's London session, and most likely the safest is to wait until after the releases tomorrow.

And for all we know, which is damn little, the market might continue to hold the line on prices tomorrow, even after the releases and right to the close of the week. A gap to open the new week would start things off right for the market, placing stress on the wrong side holders. After they hold on for awhile as the market pushes prices against them, and then finally give up, they will create the liquidity for the market to close their new positions at profit.

No matter what happens, we need only to wait for prime Sonic R. System setups in either direction.

WARNING: Speculative.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,515
  • Feb 9, 2012 10:35am Feb 9, 2012 10:35am
Quoting hansma
Sorry if there was confusion. I mean I plan to sell there if price reaches that level.

Regards
H.
Could be forming top of a new trading range, who knows, we'll have to wait and see??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9th Feb EU 4h Chart 2.jpg Size: 155 KB
  • #30,516
  • Edited 4:12pm Feb 9, 2012 3:30pm | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting ForexTeam
Could you please tell what is the setup for SMA on your screenshot ?

Thank you

GEEZZZ who are you asking this question too ?

Be presice in your questions. Plz state what you want from whom.

Anyways we use two moving averages, the SMA and EMA.

1. The SMA stands for Sonic Moving Average.

2. The EMA stands for Elliott Moving Average.

Feel free to Google the above mentioned two moving averages, and see which
one fits you the best.

3. Disregard 1 and 2

4. Best advice Look up post 1 in this thread


Hope this helps.


Regards,
H.
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #30,517
  • Feb 9, 2012 5:15pm Feb 9, 2012 5:15pm
Quoting hansma
GEEZZZ who are you asking this question too ?

Be presice in your questions. Plz state what you want from whom.

Anyways we use two moving averages, the SMA and EMA.

1. The SMA stands for Sonic Moving Average.

2. The EMA stands for Elliott Moving Average.

Feel free to Google the above mentioned two moving averages, and see which
one fits you the best.

3. Disregard 1 and 2

4. Best advice Look up post 1 in this thread


Hope this helps.


Regards,
H.
Oh, you're being testy!
(I was going to post also, but you are soooo...... much more creative!)
  • #30,518
  • Feb 9, 2012 5:42pm Feb 9, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting traderathome
AU:

Entered short on M1 (EP= 1.0798).
AU:

Manually closed at 1.0765 for 33 pips gain from EP to close. The reason for closing now is PA has just made it down to a S&R level. I happen to be at the computer and while this is the first start of a breakout I half suspect continued PA waffling thru the asian session and up to the USD releases. The nearer upcoming AUD high impact release might result in a pullback upwards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,519
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:26pm Feb 9, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting traderathome
AU:

Manually closed at 1.0765 for 33 pips gain from EP to close. The reason for closing now is PA has just made it down to a S&R level. I happen to be at the computer and while this is the first start of a breakout I half suspect continued PA waffling thru the asian session and up to the USD releases. The nearer upcoming AUD high impact release might result in a pullback upwards.

Is A/U looking like a nice Long setup coming close to a double bottom around 1.0748 8-Feb 23:30 ??

Or perhaps may wait until it falls to the base of the pole 1.0698 ?

Have not monitor A/U for a long time. Just saw a possible coming setup from your chart.
What you thinking?
  • #30,520
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:30pm Feb 9, 2012 7:30pm
This interesting article , even though is on Stock, explains clearer on Stock's volume and potential volume trap.


http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/art...is-Volume-Trap
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