Circular Trendlines

Here is the median line technique that I use to get a price projection when I feel that there could be a possible ending of motion.

EUR/USD pair will continue its decent to 2900/2850. If support is not formed there, then we will go down as far as the 88.6 retracement of the move from 2630 to 3230, which is roughly around 2700. Right now its a sell till for the next couple of days.

I had to wait out today to see what was the purpose of the rise from 3020 region.

The H4 chart gives the best perspective so far. Since motion is stuck at the pole of the black circle and is relatively close to that area, I have to conclude that it is getting ready for a pole break of the black circle.

However, given the size of the circle, the probabilities run high that the pole break would be a false break.

That means we will go above 3230 region towards 3260 or even 3340, very close to the straight black trendline shown (T1). But we will have a reversal after that, simply because of the size of the circle and the region where price action is deciding to choose its path for future movements.

What makes more sense is that price action would choose either the inner boundary of the red or blue circle to find a alternate route to go much higher above 3200/3300 zone.

Since the poles of a circle are one of the hardest areas for price action to penetrate, by avoiding the pole and going around it, price action avoids the hardship that the pole is giving it, and it would be easier for it to climb up and break the resistance level of 3200-3300. Price will always travel the path of least resistance


For now until late friday after the FOMC annoncement we are most likely to go north, and unlike my expectations few days ago, 3234 will be breached sooner.

But the solid red trendline(T2) is the final destination, before another major series of falls happen toward the 2200 region.

Thanks for all the charts and your thoughts:-) Really helps making me a better trader!

H4
The tendency of price action to hang around at the south pole of the black circle is a powerfull indication that its getting ready for a pole break. This is further reinforced by its tendency to not go below the 3984 mark yesterday. In the event of a false pole break, which is very likely to happen, price will shoot up to 3300 zone and toward the afternoon session it would show slow signs of reversal. If a reversal is to happen, then at a minimum it will go to the boundaries of the red circle, which is roughly around the 3000 mark.

Up to 3300/3400 then dropping after that

upwards at a minimum towards 3230-3240 region. Probabilities run higher that it would go to 3300

This is how the criticality of the levels holds:

The spike upward was short to 3205, but since then the EUR has been falling and it will fall more.

Does the daily close have to be lower than 1.3088 for continued downside momentum?

Within the 3140-3160 range anywhere within that range we will still be bearish.

If there was any bullish sentiment, it to be at 3220 for support.

H4
This pair is at a very tough position to decide which way it will go. The south pole of the red circle is providing very strong support, and because of that there are 2 choices that price action can choose to do, in either case the break downwards will happen, but in the first case this would be from 3100 region and in the second case it would be from 3320 region.

If price uses time to increase its stay around the south pole of the red circle, then it can get closer to a weak region of the circle and then try a break downwards from there. In this scenario we will be toggling up and down between 3100/3120 and 3030 region, with no major breaks in either direction until the black solid straight trendline is reached.

In the second scenario we will have a incredibly powerfull thrust upwards that will prove to be a false break of the solid black circle and land on the dotted black circle. In this case we will have a equal rebound downwards from 3320 that will have enough strength to break the south pole of the red circle and go further down.

M30
The situation here is switching more and more to a play between the circles. We dont have a lot of strong moves that have gone much beyond 3200, and the black top circle has provided some good resistance, but price action is still not convinced that it has found the path of the least resistance to go furhter down. One option that remains a high probability is that if the inside perimeter of the green circle becomes a strong support then there is quite a bit of room for price action to travel without much resistance and go to 3320 region. This action would make the top black circle into a "Energy Circle" and that would generate enough momentum from the 3320 region to push price significantly downwards.

On the other hand if we stay outside the perimeter of the green circle, then we eventually will move out of the region of the poles of the blue circle and we could have a break downwards from somewhere close to 3100.

As long as the curvature shown holds up, chances of going to 3300 will decrease. The important thing to note is that the circle is showing a strong resistance in a region where its supposed to be a weak region of the circle. So be careful on going long from 3140 region upwards.

I'm starting to see the benefits of CT analysis and how to apply it. Thanks for jogging my brain!

You are welcomed.

Have to draw many circles to help you come up with a conclusion, but as you draw you find that sometimes they give 50/50 results, so you stay out of the market when that happens,

but sometimes you have a lot of them pointing to the same thing, which in those case you trade the setups.

Stoplosses are a personal choice, and I dont put them in my analysis. My own preference is to give myself lots of stoploss and go for 20-25 pips targets at a time.

Good Luck

Just looked at your post on.. Ts thred..must say it interests me very much.. also your median analisys

On the daily time frame there does not seem to be much hope of going above the major straight trendline shown. Its as equally powerfull as a resistance line as it was as a support line in the past. Meaning that once motion gets below it, then its not one of those lines that gives in easily.

Still not eliminating the possibility of a shooting star upwards but overall this is a sell setup

Here is the view from H1, still a sell setup

I am staying out today, simply because of the reason that in the diagram shown around the circled part in red, I am not convinced that the upward move is a authentic move that will take us much further up.

From a pole break perspective, whenever it happens, the movement travels approximately 25% to 30% of the vertical diameter of the circle with ease. In this case its barely holding up, which as far as I can see its not a good sign for any bullish perspective.

The first stage of a bearish move is a drop to the blue line