Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #299,741
- Feb 2, 2012 10:32am Feb 2, 2012 10:32am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
- #299,742
- Feb 2, 2012 10:52am Feb 2, 2012 10:52am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Know Your Wave | 2,640 Posts
ok i mean technically!
sincerely i thought to find price near 1.59 now,.,,,.. what happened?
mmm
i think my week is done!
interesting posts on this thread today. I've avoided GU since we hit the barrier. stuff like this takes time to sort out.
in terms of trading being gambling, it's one outlook, but not necessarily accurate. knowing when not to trade is also a trade. taking higher probability trades lessens the randomness of the process.
any venture of value involves risk. creating a product, investing in R&D and production without knowing the outcome is a risk. companies use the same trend following statistics traders do in deciding to move forward or not. it all comes down to how good your risk assessment is, your math, and ability to understand the market.
I'm not a gambler. I never have been. I'm a scientist who works within a tight framework of probabilities to determine an outcome. if the experiment fails, the costs are in line with my overall budget that it can easily be absorbed. as long as the win/loss ratio is good, negative expectancy isn't an issue.
this is why running trading as a business is critical. I lost money at the beginning of this week, and sat out the rest, but not to the extent that it jeopardizes my operations.
it was one of those weeks that come every once in a while.
Navin put it best when he said the world is confused right now. when confusion reigns, the markets are a complete mess. it will find direction and traders who preserve their capital and practice patience will be ready for when it does.
the ones who don't know when to sit it out die a death of a thousand tiny cuts. this is something a lot of people don't understand. people who don't have a clue get wiped out by big losses. people who are doing OK in a good market get taken out by the little bad trades in a bad market.
being able to stand down when it's FUBAR and strike effectively when it's all clear is a big part of this profession. most other jobs involve "activity" so trading is peculiar because it involves a lot of inaction. this is hard for people to learn who are used to being "productive" with their time. doing a job that involves a lot of doing nothing isn't easy to adjust to, but it's necessary.
anyway just my 2 cents.
GL w/ your trades.
this PA was expected with the resistance area we hit. I avoid GU like the plague in situations like this.
- #299,743
- Feb 2, 2012 11:12am Feb 2, 2012 11:12am
- | Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,429 Posts
..this is hard for people to learn who are used to being "productive" with their time. doing a job that involves a lot of doing nothing isn't easy to adjust to, but it's necessary.
anyway just my 2 cents.
GL w/ your trades.
very well said.
that's why we have music thread
it really helps..
- #299,745
- Feb 2, 2012 11:16am Feb 2, 2012 11:16am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 3,185 Posts
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
- #299,746
- Feb 2, 2012 11:37am Feb 2, 2012 11:37am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 3,185 Posts
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
- #299,747
- Feb 2, 2012 11:53am Feb 2, 2012 11:53am
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
the best may be yet to come this week.
interesting posts on this thread today. I've avoided GU since we hit the barrier. stuff like this takes time to sort out.
in terms of trading being gambling, it's one outlook, but not necessarily accurate. knowing when not to trade is also a trade. taking higher probability trades lessens the randomness of the process.
any venture of value involves risk. creating a product, investing in R&D and production without knowing the outcome is a risk. companies use the same trend following statistics traders...
very well said!
one of best post i ever seen !
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #299,749
- Feb 2, 2012 12:29pm Feb 2, 2012 12:29pm
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 3,185 Posts
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
- #299,750
- Feb 2, 2012 12:50pm Feb 2, 2012 12:50pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #299,751
- Feb 2, 2012 1:05pm Feb 2, 2012 1:05pm
- Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Bullish Behavior | 3,182 Posts
- #299,756
- Feb 2, 2012 3:13pm Feb 2, 2012 3:13pm
usually january and february is dead season for retail work,everyone who got jobs in december are being let go,and positions minimized across all sectors,as many people come back to saving mode after the holiday season.So wouldnt be surprised to see some negative numbers coming out.
- #299,757
- Feb 2, 2012 3:13pm Feb 2, 2012 3:13pm
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Get to the Chopper | 17,905 Posts
My Prediction:
I predict that if I make a prediction, my prediction will be wrong. So I won't predict
I predict that if I make a prediction, my prediction will be wrong. So I won't predict
Come with me if you want to live....
- #299,758
- Feb 2, 2012 3:21pm Feb 2, 2012 3:21pm
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Get to the Chopper | 17,905 Posts
Come with me if you want to live....
My Prediction:
I predict that if I make a prediction, my prediction will be wrong. So I won't predict
.As far as I can see from the charts (1HR), the price has retraced back down ~ 50% of its recent up move. Around the 5770 area is the 61.8% retrace and the 50MA (green line). Recently price seem to respect the 50MA line but it is also possible that the price could go down to the 5700 level, where the 200EMA is (yellow line). The MACD has also turned negative. The danger with my analysis here is that there is a recency bias.
It looks like a majority of the traders are expecting the price to go down. What people here think of the situation? Thanks.
