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EUR/CHF

  • #2,821
  • Feb 2, 2012 2:11pm Feb 2, 2012 2:11pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
I don't think an intervention will happen anytime soon, and I am happy to read something other than the usual: 'hey the price is 10 pips up/down, SNB will act soon' posts that have been flooding this thread.

I nevertheless don't agree with your fundamental logic, because somebody is indeed selling this pair. If the stated statistics presented the true picture of money in the bet, we would actually be at a higher price by now. A bunch of retailers (and I have to confess, I'm among them) think the peg will hold, but the sad fact seems to be: a lot...
I see where you are coming from , but I think the reason for the E/C to be under so much downward pressure , comes not only from the commercials hedging against the speculators(retail traders) as is usually the case , but the biggest down pressure on this pair, I believe stems from the other CHF crosses, e.g USD/CHF, where retail traders feel more at ease shorting those pairs.For this pair to move, we need strenght in both Euro and USD , and atm none are doing too great, so even if the true ratio where to be 100% long to 0% short on E/C , it would still not guarantee upward movement.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #2,822
  • Edited 2:29pm Feb 2, 2012 2:16pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting sidhujag
yea maybe, but that is under assumption that they will intervene above their peg level... might be worth a try aslong as you are using small risk.
I am , I mean I do and I do go in very large , when price dips 15-20 pips from the 120.50 level, but rather than have my money tied up on this pair , I close those longs as soon as I have my 10-15 pips and go look for business elsewhere until the dip happens again.As I said , I will look to have a long term long (in hope of intervention ) when the ratios balance out a bit further,or when EUR and USD sentiment improves but for now this a perfect low risk scalping pair.

I think the key here is to leave the TP open and close manually rather than setting a TP on price entry, that way if a spike comes in its an added bonus
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #2,823
  • Feb 2, 2012 3:11pm Feb 2, 2012 3:11pm
Guys

The SNB has said they will defend the 1.20000000000 level.
They are Swiss, meaning precision, that's it.

What's the point of intervening right now? The longer they can wait the better because individuals give up and may even start to buy CHF.

The SNB does not care who will win or lose, their mandate is to stabilize their currency.

The main reason why price is back at this level is because of the FED talking QE3 and other nonsense to prop up the equity's and devaluing the US dollar.

Lets face it:

 

  1. The Japanese want a weaker Yen because of exports

  1. The Swiss want a weaker CHF because of exports

  1. The Europeans (especially Germany) want a weaker EUR because of exports

  1. The US wants a weaker USD to prop up Wall Street and crash Gold


The problem with above is everybody wants something.

  • #2,824
  • Feb 2, 2012 4:41pm Feb 2, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
Guys

The SNB has said they will defend the 1.20000000000 level.
They are Swiss, meaning precision, that's it.

What's the point of intervening right now? The longer they can wait the better because individuals give up and may even start to buy CHF.

The SNB does not care who will win or lose, their mandate is to stabilize their currency.

The main reason why price is back at this level is because of the FED talking QE3 and other nonsense to prop up the equity's and devaluing the US dollar.

Lets face it:

[list][*]The Japanese...
yes..... no reason to intervene right now...because they need to see CPI data first.... and they also have monetary meeting around this month....hahaha....no reason to intrervne before 1.2 hit!!!
Bismillah
  • #2,825
  • Feb 2, 2012 4:50pm Feb 2, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
Guys

The SNB has said they will defend the 1.20000000000 level.
They are Swiss, meaning precision, that's it.

What's the point of intervening right now? The longer they can wait the better because individuals give up and may even start to buy CHF.

The SNB does not care who will win or lose, their mandate is to stabilize their currency.

The main reason why price is back at this level is because of the FED talking QE3 and other nonsense to prop up the equity's and devaluing the US dollar.

Lets face it:

[list][*]The...
That's it, everybody is after the same ball trying to score in each others goal, that is why currency mkts are tanking.
  • #2,826
  • Feb 2, 2012 4:56pm Feb 2, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting hornsant
That's it, everybody is after the same ball trying to score in each others goal, that is why currency mkts are tanking.
they need to make a joint intervention again to stabilize curency..hahah
Bismillah
  • #2,827
  • Feb 2, 2012 4:57pm Feb 2, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting hornsant
That's it, everybody is after the same ball trying to score in each others goal, that is why currency mkts are tanking.
Currency markets are tanking? Since when?
  • #2,828
  • Feb 2, 2012 5:03pm Feb 2, 2012 5:03pm
I don't think that Jordan will do it....so who will?
  • #2,829
  • Feb 2, 2012 5:48pm Feb 2, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting sidhujag
Currency markets are tanking? Since when?
Since Central Bankers decided to take the role of the market... bassing their success in others failure. Global markets do not work any more.
  • #2,830
  • Feb 2, 2012 6:03pm Feb 2, 2012 6:03pm
Quoting hornsant
Since Central Bankers decided to take the role of the market... bassing their success in others failure. Global markets do not work any more.
work? as in actually going to work? how quaint!
  • #2,831
  • Feb 2, 2012 6:33pm Feb 2, 2012 6:33pm
quaint... yes that is right, go back over that last few posts here: very quaint, not much about the real mkt as I have known it for some years.
  • #2,832
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:33pm Feb 2, 2012 9:33pm
EUR/CHF: 20billion+ In Stop-Loss Sell Orders Between 1.1980/99
Bismillah
  • #2,833
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:16pm Feb 2, 2012 10:16pm
Quoting krunfx
EUR/CHF: 20billion+ In Stop-Loss Sell Orders Between 1.1980/99
That is if we ever able to get there...if SNB intervene sooner, this stop losses will not be trigger. So no issue at the moment...
  • #2,834
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:22pm Feb 2, 2012 10:22pm
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...ween-1-198099/

The boys at Forex live really do hate the long EUR/CHF trade! I'm guessing they were caught short during the last intervention!!
  • #2,835
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:24pm Feb 2, 2012 10:24pm
IMHO.. SNB will not intervene before the 1.20 peg is tested..
  • #2,836
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:25pm Feb 2, 2012 10:25pm
Quoting hornsant
Since Central Bankers decided to take the role of the market... bassing their success in others failure. Global markets do not work any more.
Where there is a mouse there always will be a cat
  • #2,837
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:30pm Feb 2, 2012 10:30pm
I have a feeling today there will be an intervention coming...
  • #2,838
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:59am Feb 3, 2012 12:59am
wonder what SNB's intervention 'strategy' is if they indeed intend to defend the floor with 'utmost determination'.

Do they have huge automatic buy limits at a specific level(maybe in the 1.2010s), or will they execute it in typical yentervention style where a certain date and time is set internally for intervention to take place regardless of what level the pair is trading at.

Cuz if it's the former, we could very well wait another 10 years(grossly exaggerated of course) and not get a single pip of intervention from the SNB as long as price action does not breach the limit they've set.
  • #2,839
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:54am Feb 3, 2012 1:54am
Quoting multi888
I have a feeling today there will be an intervention coming...


i hope ur right last time we went up*200-300 pips we were at same spot
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #2,840
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:00am Feb 3, 2012 2:00am
New CPI data announcement was moved from Monday February 6 to Friday February 10. I also have read (don't remember where) that Jordan is going to speak on Tuesday. Seems more days to wait...
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