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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,021
  • Edited 1:07pm Feb 1, 2012 12:18pm | Edited 1:07pm
on ES, Tuesday was a LLB, the 2nd LLB in a week (first being last Thursday which created the excess high). Here are my thoughts, curious on your opinions.

Today's open above yesterday's NY high, above current week VAH, and broke above last 2 weeks VAH in first hour. All signs of positive continuation. Logical target now 1330, which is the high of the excess and today's NY IB extension target.

Regarding the LLB, if there are only 2 days of LLB, then one could assume there were not many "weak longs" to get rid of, hence those still long are OTF and strong holders. another sign of higher prices to come.

Invalidation would come in the form of prices not clearing 1330, but more importantly prices falling back into current weekly merge VA below 1320.

For today, I believe it is possible to have a trend day since ES opened above value and continued up.

EDIT: upon reflection, trend day not likely given the rotation near 1323.
thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,022
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:08pm Feb 1, 2012 1:08pm
Clear my longs as price fail to OTF up. I reverse my longs & decided to ride onto this pullback..

Since we have a trend move since UK , naturally the expection now would be a pause to balance during US since UK profile was asymmtrical...again steidlmayer 4 step aunction process. Pullback target would be the anomaly that occur during UK session.

Assuming the price would dip back to balance therefore the combine UK/US control would then be developing round here...

Trade entry was done on the break of OTF to the F period, initial risk is 13p. target to UK control.

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/8...7feb020254.gif

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  • #4,023
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:19pm Feb 1, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting tgwhbb
on ES, Tuesday was a LLB, the 2nd LLB in a week (first being last Thursday which created the excess high). Here are my thoughts, curious on your opinions.

Today's open above yesterday's NY high, above current week VAH, and broke above last 2 weeks VAH in first hour. All signs of positive continuation. Logical target now 1330, which is the high of the excess and today's NY IB extension target.

Regarding the LLB, if there are only 2 days of LLB, then one could assume there were not many "weak longs" to get rid of, hence those still long are...
In a way, Since Thursday Excess we actually have a Major LLB then follow by seconday one yesterday..

Assuming that the weak longs have dissipated now, we should be looking for any immediate reference, namely the VAH of the merge profile. I also indicated the anomaly to see if any revisit there would eventually provided the needed support for this prognosis.

As of now price is way above the VA, I have decided to Merge it to 2 + current week. VA should have been contracted a little. For now, price is consider in excess of the current range. Only until it find a higher high support (within the VA) then the expectation would be for price to move forward for a higher valuation.

ES chart
http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/902...8feb020320.gif
  • #4,024
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:45pm Feb 1, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting Evak
Only until it find a higher high support (within the VA) then the expectation would be for price to move forward for a higher valuation.
Do you mean higher low? that would act as support
Change is the only constant
  • #4,025
  • Edited 9:34pm Feb 1, 2012 9:21pm | Edited 9:34pm
Quoting tgwhbb
Do you mean higher low? that would act as support
No...

Maybe i should refer to as previous higher swing highs instead. These would usually be the logical support when price is seeking higher price during a pullback (occuring within the VA). So the top side of this anomaly which is the one of the swing high that occur within the VA would be the logical reference, if price were seeking to move up.

On a flip side If price were to explore back "into" the anomaly to "balance off" so to speak then the odds favour a downward corection back into lower valuation again. simply put, Anomalies are like unfinished business, & if market were to revisit & re-evaluate it again, then we have to weigh the odds.

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/122...9feb021120.gif
  • #4,026
  • Edited Feb 2, 2012 12:15am Feb 1, 2012 10:25pm | Edited Feb 2, 2012 12:15am
EUR still have room to the upside.
As normal variation day is the most common type, one should expect for a minimum extension beyond IB period (although 'B' session is in developing now). The potential first point will be single reference at 3260.

From there anything can happen.
Either go to HVN at 3360, or reverse and make a neutral day instead, making a very wide range days to the downside.

As for now, the reference point to watch for are:
1.3220 - 1.3260
1.3105
1.2940
1.2780
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  • #4,027
  • Feb 2, 2012 1:25am Feb 2, 2012 1:25am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
Bounce off the Mid range MODE & now back into the upper range..in most cases this would be a trip back to the upper range VAH. So another round of valuation again of this upper range..
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/9...1feb011705.gif

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the price is rejected by the excess made in december after we braked the intermediate term balance and long term traders auctioned with conviction down. now we are in the last high volume area from the same month, price being attracted here. if this area will brake and the price it will continue to accept the excess, it will trigger multiple time frames and we will see ~1.35.
the chart is for 6E so it will be maybe slightly differences it will occur regarding the price
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  • #4,028
  • Feb 2, 2012 1:37am Feb 2, 2012 1:37am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
so we are in intermediate term balance, but the price it was accepted in the last 2 days below lower reference of the balance producing a poor low. so in order to continue lower we needed a short covering rally which could be seen by adding last sessions from london+ny+tokyo. so now we need to see if we will have initiative buyers or responsive sellers. the value area was kept lower with every up auction...
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  • #4,029
  • Feb 2, 2012 2:02am Feb 2, 2012 2:02am
Can someone plz tell me @ which exact times must I set the Session Starts to trade EU
in GMT.

Thanks!
  • #4,030
  • Feb 2, 2012 2:16am Feb 2, 2012 2:16am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting s7c
so we are in intermediate term balance, but the price it was accepted in the last 2 days below lower reference of the balance producing a poor low. so in order to continue lower we needed a short covering rally which could be seen by adding last sessions from london+ny+tokyo. so now we need to see if we will have initiative buyers or responsive sellers. the value area was kept lower with every up auction...
adding all the above i got short after last TPO from frankfurt failed to brake the balance and the london auctioned lower with conviction
  • #4,031
  • Feb 2, 2012 2:59am Feb 2, 2012 2:59am
sometimes tricks work:

http://maggiesfarm.anotherdotcom.com...ke-It-Out.html
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #4,032
  • Feb 2, 2012 3:19am Feb 2, 2012 3:19am
Quoting mima
sometimes tricks work:

http://maggiesfarm.anotherdotcom.com...ke-It-Out.html
  • #4,033
  • Feb 2, 2012 7:18am Feb 2, 2012 7:18am
Yesterday fail RE of NY provided the indication for today's opening weakness since TK, which is a balance continuation from NY after yesterdays up moves.

Price revisited the Anomaly within expectation but traded rather heavily as price seek to re-evaluate b4 decided to mark it furtur down.

Now into the spike base as the market closing in to the NY session which would be a critical reference...

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/792...3feb022112.gif
  • #4,034
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:10am Feb 2, 2012 9:10am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i just woke up and trying to understand wtf happened? seems like the chinese have a strange sense of humor, i was taken out with a very small amount of profit...does anybody have an idea of what to make of this pis session? i don't see anything, for now...
  • #4,035
  • Feb 2, 2012 9:46am Feb 2, 2012 9:46am
Quoting s7c
i just woke up and trying to understand wtf happened? seems like the chinese have a strange sense of humor, i was taken out with a very small amount of profit...does anybody have an idea of what to make of this pis session? i don't see anything, for now...
looks to me like EU simply filling in the lower part of this current VA created with the spike up in yesterday's UK session. The base of the spike is current weekly VAL and held, so target would be 3150-3170 range. 3150 is median of current up move since spike, 3170 weekly control.

as i write this EU hit 3170. time to see if 3150 will hold on pullback, if so target would be top of weekly VA at around 3200. if not reversion possibly to 3100. However, note that NY pit opened below yesterday NY low, and is now back in value. Bias should be long IMO.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,036
  • Edited 10:02am Feb 2, 2012 9:51am | Edited 10:02am
ES looks to be targeting 1325-1330. 1325 is yesterday's poor high. If price does not push through I will likely close the longs. notice how weekly IBH was resistance on Tuesday NY session, and is now support, to the pip on pre-NY test.

Evak - test on weekly IBH as per your post last night...testing the anomaly, never closing within, therefore successful test implying higher prices.

EDIT: since NY opened in yesterday's VA, expectation would be for normal day. given the small IB in today's NY, we should see upwards RE. DIBH is near yesterday's extension, 1330 area. Confluence of resistance.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,037
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:10am Feb 2, 2012 10:10am
Basically that anomoly zone was the main culprit today taken up all the market time to agree on the balance b4 any Long Term participants get in from the extremes down to the spike base. Infact the bounce was off TK high to be exact.

NY opening was in balance location, but it is also an opening test onto the anomalies. With this in mind, i made my entry after price dip back into Dval during the end of the b period.

Initial risk is 8.5p, exposure reduce at TK POC...next would be to see the a proper break out of the ascending flag formation i mentioned previously.

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/778...7feb030002.gif

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  • #4,038
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:14am Feb 2, 2012 10:14am
Quoting tgwhbb
ES looks to be targeting 1325-1330. 1325 is yesterday's poor high. If price does not push through I will likely close the longs. notice how weekly IBH was resistance on Tuesday NY session, and is now support, to the pip on pre-NY test.

Evak - test on weekly IBH as per your post last night...testing the anomaly, never closing within, therefore successful test implying higher prices.

EDIT: since NY opened in yesterday's VA, expectation would be for normal day. given the small IB in today's NY, we should see upwards RE. DIBH is near yesterday's...
Your 1st entry was in a very nice location which is at the overnite VAL
  • #4,039
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:31am Feb 2, 2012 10:31am
Composite view here again with 3 weeks merge, indicating the bounce off the HVN, just below the median. Fib traders would just refer to the 61.8% retracement level of yesterday's 200pips range..

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/7...8feb030027.gif

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  • #4,040
  • Feb 2, 2012 10:38am Feb 2, 2012 10:38am
I just wanted to post a chart of the recent merge of the currunt balance area. I ve had some pretty decent trades trading selling above value and buying below.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
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