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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • Post #4,001
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 1, 2012 2:22am Jan 31, 2012 10:37pm | Edited Feb 1, 2012 2:22am
Quoting tgwhbb
once again you are right. given the support found at current week VAL, would you now expect to explore weekly VAH again?
For simplicity sake i refer to the last 2 week merge as upper range & that lower distribution u see on my chart refer to as lower range.

Given yesterdays move, furthur shorts to the down side would be in the books for now towards VAL as price would tend to make another swing low. Since ES is still within the upper range the immediate focus would then be the VAL, expect excess off the VAL too as this would be the normal expection for a reversion. Some lows would have to be clear for stops if price were to have another meaningful reversion , hence last week low point would also be of interest; where excess could be made to hunt stops.

On the flipside, furhur weakness below upper range VAL would be signal by a rejection off it, Price would then proceed to seek support off the lower distribution control.

Note that there are cases were the lower range VAH provide the support, for price to continue to explore furthur into the upper range.

SO; upper dsitribution VAL & the lower distribution VAH would be the immediate focus for any expectation for price to explore up...or down. Another words this area is the LVN..

I think roughly that's my thoughts for now.

EDIT: Just to add that if there is any meaningful rotation within the balance of the "upper range", then it would be natural for the value area to gradually shrink, therefore a good secondary reference would be the current developing week VA.

ES chart:
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/7...6feb011112.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Here is a 4 week merge of EU just to see the distribution & where price are now..

Quiet similar to the above explanation for ES in my reply above. (FYI TG)

BUT in EU case, it have drop below the current value & is now caught between the upper range VAL & the mid range VAH. So it is sitting in the LVN.

Since furthur weakness is expected here, the next level for support could be mid range's Mode. In some cases the Median level could be tested instead.

Another words if EU do not spring off from the LVN zone, the next valuation would be the mid range exploration.

http://img815.imageshack.us/img815/6...9feb011210.gif

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  • Post #4,003
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 1, 2012 12:12am Jan 31, 2012 11:56pm | Edited Feb 1, 2012 12:12am
Quoting Evak
Eu back into the lower range (see chart) with now running into excess. Weeky profile here indicates rejection of that LVN as price sprung off it. So now strucuture should be expecting a pause & auctioning to balance (step 2 & 3 of steidmayer 4step process)..another words, massive LLB int a b formation.

Attachment 887920
Hii..

Excellent explanation there, Attaching my chart below why does my chart looks different than Your's? In your chart I can see a second distribution below LVN, where as in my chart the profile is not extended till that level (1.30673). I am Using ay.MPDMW.v1.31.Rev.1 Indi, profileTF set to daily & Profile data TF to 30m,,
Am I missing out on some serttings.?

Please guide..

regards

Santosh

EDIT Attach:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.PNG Size: 26 KB
If it was easy, everyone would do it.
Quoting frankkn
First post updated

If the major contributors send me a link it will be on the OP asap
Tks frank, that was fast...

FYI all, I have requested frankkn to update his 1st post of some of the reference collection that was share here, so it would be easier now to point to the 1st post if any one ask...

tks
Quoting santoshdts
Hii..

Excellent explanation there, Attaching my chart below why does my chart looks different than Your's? In your chart I can see a second distribution below LVN, where as in my chart the profile is not extended till that level (1.30673). I am Using ay.MPDMW.v1.31.Rev.1 Indi, profileTF set to daily & Profile data TF to 30m,,
Am I missing out on some serttings.?

Please guide..

regards

Santosh

EDIT Attach:
this is a different indi which is usefull for watching clusters of POC but it cannot do profile merge. Your chart is a daily profile where else mind is a weekly profile. U can set that indi on your chart to show weekly too if u wish but this indi dont do merge.
ThanX for your Kind reply.. I got it..

Thanks again..
If it was easy, everyone would do it.
Im inclined to get long from a merged profile view, as we have tested the value area high of a previous 3 day balance, its also rejecting the now current wibl, lets see if we will return to the previous value area, or atleast revisit the val of the previous balance area

Edit: I decided to take a long at the weekly initial balance low (WIBL), ill see how this works out. I may add to my position if price holds above the daily open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
Quoting Evak
Here is a 4 week merge of EU just to see the distribution & where price are now..

Quiet similar to the above explanation for ES in my reply above. (FYI TG)

BUT in EU case, it have drop below the current value & is now caught between the upper range VAL & the mid range VAH. So it is sitting in the LVN.

Since furthur weakness is expected here, the next level for support could be mid range's Mode. In some cases the Median level could be tested instead.

Another words if EU do not spring off from the LVN zone, the next valuation would be the mid...

Bounce off the Mid range MODE & now back into the upper range..in most cases this would be a trip back to the upper range VAH. So another round of valuation again of this upper range..
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/9...1feb011705.gif

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ive added to my original position, Im hoping this may go through to the top of value.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
Enter long as as price response off the MODE (see my previous post), Just prior to UK open, Price then revert back into US low. UK open with an opening drive initiatives. Entry was made just prior to UK open with intial risk of 18p. Exposure reduce at 3100 with a 50 pips. Note the LLB i mention in my previous post. In most cases the reversion would be back into where the LLB started..

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/3...2feb011717.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Quoting Evak
Bounce off the Mid range MODE & now back into the upper range..in most cases this would be a trip back to the upper range VAH. So another round of valuation again of this upper range..
Price hit the top of the upper range now, in addition we have a ascending flag formation. Next in the order would be a pause & pull back to balance - Median line as a guide


http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/4...3feb012106.gif


As noteed ealier, that price tendencis have reverted to where the LLB was started..
http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/343...4feb012118.gif

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Counter-trend moves very often find support at previous HVN.
Coincide with Naked POC.
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EUR A0-FX now are at the extremes of:
- 5 Day ADR
- Previous day's high
- Composite profile

Please be cautious bull
Decicde to reverse my position. Im not sure how well this will turn out, but Ill hld the trade for awhile.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
Add to my previous long as price trade back up above yesterday US high, back into the previous range as indicated in the chart, which was my day timeframe reference range.

NY opens onto UK pullback low which also a previous NY high which is my immediate reference. Then in b period we have a response into the said level with increase volume. I made my entry after a slight bounce off b period low.

Intitial risk is 15p. Exposure for this trade was reduced for 36p.....

yesterday high would be a contention...

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/934...5feb020003.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
A Long Term Prospective, Refering Monthly profile of EU. We can see PA has crossed Dec POC.. and is this heading to fill tha Low Usage area and may test Dec. VAH.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.PNG Size: 20 KB
If it was easy, everyone would do it.
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
Add to my previous long as price trade back up above yesterday US high, back into the previous range as indicated in the chart, which was my day timeframe reference range.

NY opens onto UK pullback low which also a previous NY high which is my immediate reference. Then in b period we have a response into the said level with increase volume. I made my entry after a slight bounce off b period low.

Intitial risk is 15p. Exposure for this trade was reduced for 36p.....

yesterday high would be a contention...
the relation between me and market reflect the Murphy's laws monday i closed my long before tokyo and tokyo rallied, yesterday i didn't and of course tokyo went lower. somehow markets feels alive
i didn't took the long from london, somehow it wasn't so clear for me.
i took this in pit session based on kind the same considerations as yours, but i entered in a period, in b period i see an open auction in range and almost i exited. fortunately i didn't and i'm out just now, based on the lack of confidence and probability of tight range.
by the way does somebody have experience with windotrader?
http://www.windotrader.com/Home.aspx
Quoting santoshdts
Refering Monthly profile of EU. We can see PA has crossed Dec POC.. and is this heading to fill tha Low Usage area and may test Dec. VAH.
Just alittle food for thought..........
from a monthly profile perspective, how did last month compare to the previous month? Value migrated lower, which is seen as bearish. The poc also migrated lower, also considered bearish, and all on increased volume, and we cant say we have technically stopped "one timeframing" down. From an AMT perspective imo sugguests bearishness.
Take my thoughts with a grain of salt, Im often not correct in my analysis.
but from a "text book" point of view, I see bearishness
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
Quoting Evak
Here is a 4 week merge of EU just to see the distribution & where price are now..

Quiet similar to the above explanation for ES in my reply above. (FYI TG)

BUT in EU case, it have drop below the current value & is now caught between the upper range VAL & the mid range VAH. So it is sitting in the LVN.

Since furthur weakness is expected here, the next level for support could be mid range's Mode. In some cases the Median level could be tested instead.

Another words if EU do not spring off from the LVN zone, the next valuation would be...
The Great thing about it, is that it made a bounce @ the pip...from last week POC! And then shooted 200 pips up! Are you a magician, who can predict the future? No, I don't think so: you're a guy who knows very well how to use a formidable tool like Market Profile....

Less thahn 20 pips Risk for a possible >200 pips reward...... Oh my God, that's trading......

I'm a totally newbie here, but I've learned more reading some of your posts and starting to read Dalton's book Mind over Markets than in almost 2 years spent wandering in the dark (i.e. into the majority of FF threads...)
Supply & Demand.... that's what moves the market...nothing less, nothing more.... and the best identifier of these forces is MP. Isn't it?

I've just a question regarding today: EU made his way bouncing from a critical level.... But, generally speaking, USD & JPY dropped against EUR/GBP/AUD.... All these moves started at the same time..... So, was it just a coincidence that EURUSD was rejected at that precise point?
In EUR/USD we could better identify & would have predicted it would happen @ that level.
But (e.g. for AUD USD weekly profile in my chart) it seems to me it was not so simple to expect such a move just looking @ the MP. Unless to consider the center of upper VA of 13 weeks ago in that bimodal distribution(red line in the chart) .... Or, is there something I'm still not able to see..?

btw: what version of the indi is in your chart with merged weekly profile?

Thanks!
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Quoting s7c
the relation between me and market reflect the Murphy's laws monday i closed my long before tokyo and tokyo rallied, yesterday i didn't and of course tokyo went lower. somehow markets feels alive

Don't worry bro...you're not alone......
Yesterday I spent the morning fightin' against the market (EURUSD) to grab some pips... It went up and down until noon, never allowing a nice run.... Then, in the afternoon I fell asleep, coz i was exausted.... and it made the big down move.
Today I read Evak's post about EUR/USD and saw the initial few pips bounce... I was tempted to go long, but had to go away from home and didn't do it..... and went out.
Not necessary to say it went straight up whitout any hesitation!!!!

Murphy's laws rulez here......
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