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EUR/CHF

  • #2,721
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:58pm Jan 31, 2012 7:58pm
Only 30 pips to 1.2. Do you think SNB will intervene ?
  • #2,722
  • Jan 31, 2012 10:21pm Jan 31, 2012 10:21pm
rumors
EUR/CHF retail trader positioning; 24:1 long to short ratio!
Bismillah
  • #2,723
  • Jan 31, 2012 10:49pm Jan 31, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting krunfx
rumors
EUR/CHF retail trader positioning; 24:1 long to short ratio!
That doesn't mean anything...1.20 will be tested imo.
  • #2,724
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:03pm Jan 31, 2012 11:03pm
Quoting multi888
That doesn't mean anything...1.20 will be tested imo.
so many rumors..hah.

wait n see
Bismillah
  • #2,725
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:27pm Jan 31, 2012 11:27pm
Quoting krunfx
so many rumors..hah.

wait n see

Today seem like alot of short covering going on...or SNB slowly buying?
  • #2,726
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:39pm Jan 31, 2012 11:39pm
Quoting stockey
Two main problems with this analysis:

1) The writer is placing too much of an emphasis on retail traders. Retail traders represent a tiny percentage of the market and are pretty much insignificant. This can be demonstrated by the fact that EUR/CHF declined considerably over the past 2-3 weeks whereas the number of net long retailers increased significantly during that time.

2) "Over 96 percent of retail traders in our sample are currently long, and a Swiss National Bank intervention would almost certainly bail out many speculators holding...
Very intersting article, and i hope SNB take an intervention againt because a few month ago in SNB press release they say that the ideal value for echf is 1.4xxx and they will take an unlimited intervention if echf react 1.2xxx.this moment will become an testing time for the SNB credibility..
I think now Day forex market is like a war between BIG BOY (SNB, FED,ECB, BOJ etc), Profesional Trader (Big Bank) and Retail Trader (ussualy a Day Trader)..In this internet era i do not know who will be the winner.
  • #2,727
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:41pm Jan 31, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting multi888
Today seem like alot of short covering going on...or SNB slowly buying?
In september before the intervention (9 am.) The price went up almost 200 pips. And after that, came the big move with 800 PIps.

May be somebody was information about the big movement, and buy long/close short before it.

So everybody expect a test to lower level, and after SNB intervention, but other possible scenario is we go up 50 -100 pips from here, and after the price will rocket to higher level

We will know sooner.

Other issue:

SNB communication was very clever, and effectiv in the past months. There was a lot of verbal intervention, which could keep the price in a good range without cost.

I have seen all SNB intervention in the last 3 years. Before intervention the SNB stoped verbal intervention. There was a few days silent, and after happened the intervention.

Silent, like now...
  • #2,728
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:49pm Jan 31, 2012 11:49pm
Quoting Simon73
In september before the intervention (9 am.) The price went up almost 200 pips. And after that, came the big move with 800 PIps.

May be somebody was information about the big movement, and buy long/close short before it.

So everybody expect a test to lower level, and after SNB intervention, but other possible scenario is we go up 50 -100 pips from here, and after the price will rocket to higher level

We will know sooner.

Other issue:

SNB communication was very clever, and effectiv in the past months. There was a lot of verbal...

Let's hope it's true...there's a Retail report coming out later.
  • #2,729
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:59pm Jan 31, 2012 11:59pm
Quoting multi888
Today seem like alot of short covering going on...or SNB slowly buying?
now verbal is very important..hehe
Bismillah
  • #2,730
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:24am Feb 1, 2012 1:24am
Quoting Simon73
In september before the intervention (9 am.) The price went up almost 200 pips. And after that, came the big move with 800 PIps.

May be somebody was information about the big movement, and buy long/close short before it.

So everybody expect a test to lower level, and after SNB intervention, but other possible scenario is we go up 50 -100 pips from here, and after the price will rocket to higher level

We will know sooner.

Other issue:

SNB communication was very clever, and effectiv in the past months. There was a lot of verbal intervention,...
thx Simon
Today we have new data: retail sales and PMI. Imo if 1.20 is not trying to be broken SNB will wait till CPI data published Monday.
  • #2,731
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:30am Feb 1, 2012 1:30am
Quoting multi888
Let's hope it's true...there's a Retail report coming out later.
how do you think retail sales would affect the currency if are not as expected? better retail strong CHF?
  • #2,732
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:42am Feb 1, 2012 1:42am
Quoting simeeon
how do you think retail sales would affect the currency if are not as expected? better retail strong CHF?
Let's hope for weaker retail report to weaken the CHF...
  • #2,733
  • Feb 1, 2012 1:55am Feb 1, 2012 1:55am
Good luck to all guys!


Inserted Video
There is only one right price.... what the customer is willing to pay !
  • #2,734
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:11am Feb 1, 2012 2:11am
going long because usually JAN retail sales are bad .. as i know..lmfao
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #2,735
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:17am Feb 1, 2012 2:17am
0.6 AND nothing happens ...
  • #2,736
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:18am Feb 1, 2012 2:18am
nothing happens.. where is SNB?
  • #2,737
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:23am Feb 1, 2012 2:23am
The SNB’s foreign FX reserves declined to CHF 257.5 billion in December. The data is tough to interpret regarding EUR holdings. The balance sheet number is driven by EURCHF FX swaps maturing and being rolled over. Hence, it is just a snapshot at any one time, and says little about the SNB's intentions. What seems clear is that the SNB is trying to keep the outstanding liquidity more or less constant via rolling over the bulk of the FX swaps The more important question, of course, is where exactly and how the SNB would choose to start defending the floor. Our expectation has been that we will see their bid somewhere slightly above 1.20, and that it will not trade through, even for a short time, as this would be very risky.
  • #2,738
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:25am Feb 1, 2012 2:25am
Quoting intermiten
nothing happens.. where is SNB?
I think they are not in the office yet...maybe traffic jam on the way to office.
  • #2,739
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:31am Feb 1, 2012 2:31am
4 pip
There is only one right price.... what the customer is willing to pay !
  • #2,740
  • Feb 1, 2012 2:31am Feb 1, 2012 2:31am
Quoting joancb
0.6 AND nothing happens ...
PMI again negative and for me this is more important than retail sales.
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