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  • #590,341
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:52pm Jan 31, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting todstars2
Is it Kiwi making all that bargain EUR for me/us???? ;-)
apart from joke , he is aexcellent Trader (shorting) , he perfectly identify bear and its power
Mohan
  • #590,342
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:02pm Jan 31, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting todstars2
the trend down was broken on 1/19 when it broke out at 1.286 and closing at 1.29698 the same day.

it has continued higher since.

looks like a convincing turn to me.

dont forget the ascending triangle breakout that I demonstrated on the other posted chart.

a classic technical analyst will tell you it has not been confirmed until it extends at least 3% beyond the breakout but, who's counting.....LoL!
However, Though the downtrend line is broken it does not necessarily mean that an uptrend will begin to occur. We can trend sideways which I think is actually very likely as we have the sovereign debt crisis on one side weighing on the euro and the FED on the other side printing money. I think this rally will be capped at 1.34 at the highest and we may see a range between 1.25 and 1.32 until one of the sides wins out. Of course, we could also continue to trend down with a less or more steep decline as a new trend begins to take form. Or of course the uptrend can occur. All the information given by the breaking of the downtrend line is a warning and to be on your guard for the new trend to take form. That new one could be up, down, or to the side.
  • #590,343
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:03pm Jan 31, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
3074 is important level both bull and bear, , safer wait 6-8 hr confirmation, for more aggresive is good rr depend on risk apetite

Trade safe
I agree, it's precarious. Probing for a base here with a close mental stop.

If it Breaks too far to the downside im out quick and looking for a better bargain lower.
  • #590,344
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:05pm Jan 31, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting mohan76
2 news released


2. ROMNEY WINS FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION - bad news ?
Doesn't matter which clown wins, it is always bad news.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #590,345
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:07pm Jan 31, 2012 8:07pm
the downtrend may starts pretty soon, lets wait for london.
  • #590,346
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:32pm Jan 31, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Doesn't matter which clown wins, it is always bad news.
yea for people it's bad news (they will royal to people who paid them not to the people who voted ) , but for market ?
Mohan
  • #590,347
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:37pm Jan 31, 2012 8:37pm
EURUSD Feb 1 - 2012 to 29 possible monthly ranges


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  • #590,348
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:48pm Jan 31, 2012 8:48pm
Hi all,

I have a trading question for you and I want to know how you would behave in this situation.

In my chart, I see that there is a raising trend line (you probably also see it) and in the short term it has already two times tested this trend line and changed its direction from that line. So it worked. What I am asking now is that the price is still very close to that line and I have two options to open my position:

1. Buy it now and put the stop loss just below the trend line.
2. Don't buy and wait to brake it downwards and take a short pos.

Which one would make sense for you? How would you manage this position?
  • #590,349
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:55pm Jan 31, 2012 8:55pm
Quoting mohan76
Guys

i have tips for you , when KiwiTrada active in this forum , don't even think about buy , he will crash your trade with his selling power

I think not very strong at this time ... Hi kiwi jokes only morning all...
  • #590,350
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:03pm Jan 31, 2012 9:03pm
Quoting todstars2
Take your losses quick and let your profits ride.
This is most of the time my problem. putting stop and being stopped is not a problem but I can't hold my position where I am gaining. I am always thinking that it will turn and I will loose all the money that I have gained. I need your valuable advices.
  • #590,351
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:03pm Jan 31, 2012 9:03pm
there i mangled my first attempted response, sorry....

take your losses quick and let your profits ride.

If you buy, no stop losses anywhere near trend lines. Traders stop hunt for these knowing they will most often be just outside obvious trend lines.

Far, far away stops or use mental stops

2. Don't buy and wait to brake it downwards and take a short pos.
Probe for position. Take a test lot and see how it performs. if it head in your direction you can always add to it later


Quoting koliva
Hi all,

I have a trading question for you and I want to know how you would behave in this situation.

In my chart, I see that there is a raising trend line (you probably also see it) and in the short term it has already two times tested this trend line and changed its direction from that line. So it worked. What I am asking now is that the price is still very close to that line and I have two options to open my position:

1. Buy it now and put the stop loss just below the trend line.
2. Don't buy and wait to brake it downwards and take...
  • #590,352
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:10pm Jan 31, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting koliva
This is most of the time my problem. putting stop and being stopped is not a problem but I can't hold my position where I am gaining. I am always thinking that it will turn and I will loose all the money that I have gained. I need your valuable advices.
one solution to this problem, if you are trading in long time frames is to use the "three day away" rule.

trade rises, then falls back to trend line. bounces and begins to move up again.

if it closes higher for three days, on average you can bet this is a new bottom and worth moving your stop mental or otherwise under it.

This trading tactic is suggested by Magee in the 9th edition of technical analysis of stock trends, but works for all markets without too much exception.

Another way is to look for the trendline break with a close below, on whatever time frame you are trading as the signal to take your profits and run.
  • #590,353
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:12pm Jan 31, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting koliva
This is most of the time my problem. putting stop and being stopped is not a problem but I can't hold my position where I am gaining. I am always thinking that it will turn and I will loose all the money that I have gained. I need your valuable advices.
if you don't book your profits they were never yours anyway, there just paper.

the only way ive found to stay sober about it and sane.
  • #590,354
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:15pm Jan 31, 2012 9:15pm
Thanks todstars2. I will keep all those things in my mind.

Btw, do you have any running position at the moment?
  • #590,355
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:16pm Jan 31, 2012 9:16pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
Quoting Leunammj
the downtrend may starts pretty soon, lets wait for london.

Based on my 4hr chart looks like the downtrend is starting now. Will see if it can sustain when London open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 50 KB
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #590,356
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:21pm Jan 31, 2012 9:21pm
Take this with a grain of salt people.

I sat in on a P/T conference, oh I guess it was 5 years ago now, and I got a chance to hear James Dicks talk. Through the speech he was making I was trying to think of the single most important thing that I wanted to know to help me as a trader, since I had only been trading forex for 3 years. So I was new to the game because I didnt trade much. Anyway, after the speech I got to talk to him and asked him what was the easiest way to determine the long term trend without pulling in data on the Daily Time frame and drawing an arrow. His answer: On the Daily timeframe put a 89 simple moving average on the chart. If the price is above the 89 its an uptrend and if the price action is below the line its a downtrend. EXA: Below

Just thought I would share so take it with a grain of salt.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 24 KB
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #590,357
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:24pm Jan 31, 2012 9:24pm
Quoting screwup
I think not very strong at this time ... Hi kiwi jokes only morning all...
Hahaha asia be crap for while now,

Jan is never good for bear, last 1/4 only chance for me enter, I still watching gbp pairs, some nice higher tf formations, nothing confirming yet is waiting game

EU I sell weekly open 3213 trailing stopped 3138 +75 nice green pips , reloaded 1st retouch 3212 close enough fills 3190 add 3174 SL both 3083 BE +107 & BE +91 if 3074 can hold will place trailing.
Been waiting Feb Open, have now at 3074 1 minor fill 3073 sl 3083 -10

I will try find cleanest chart

Now I wait see who win fight for 3074, will determine our Feb trade plan
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #590,358
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:25pm Jan 31, 2012 9:25pm
Quoting koliva
Thanks todstars2. I will keep all those things in my mind.

Btw, do you have any running position at the moment?
YW

Short the USD.

Pick a pair, they all pretty much say the same thing long term from a technicals perspective, which in itself is another confirming indicator.
  • #590,359
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:28pm Jan 31, 2012 9:28pm
Here is a simple way to trade this chart long term on a short. Got the recent Stoch cross breaking out of overbought area to the down side. Not completely fullproof but larg stop is needed. 200 pips in this case but we are shooting for at least 440

Quoting spillini
Take this with a grain of salt people.

I sat in on a P/T conference, oh I guess it was 5 years ago now, and I got a chance to hear James Dicks talk. Through the speech he was making I was trying to think of the single most important thing that I wanted to know to help me as a trader, since I had only been trading forex for 3 years. So I was new to the game because I didnt trade much. Anyway, after the speech I got to talk to him and asked him what was the easiest way to determine the long term trend without pulling in data on the Daily Time frame...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 22 KB
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #590,360
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:32pm Jan 31, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting koliva
This is most of the time my problem. putting stop and being stopped is not a problem but I can't hold my position where I am gaining. I am always thinking that it will turn and I will loose all the money that I have gained. I need your valuable advices.
Answer can depend on your trading time frame but what i used to recommand when i was managing trading seminars years ago and this question was always asked was :

Once you have a decent profit exit half of your position in profit and put a stop at BE+1pip ( just to get a profit on that remaining position in case you are stopped)
If you get stoped you still have a winner , if not you can make a lot of pips and more important you are confortable following the position because you know that whatever happens you have a winner.

People were quite confortable with this approach , once you have a good profit with the half remaining you can moove the stop loss or can swap it with a trailling stop.
Just my 2 cents
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