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  • #590,381
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:32pm Jan 31, 2012 11:32pm
My bias for the upcoming session is long, but first the market has to show me that it's "up for it". (pun intended) Buy Stop order pending.

January was up +3.5%. Would of been slightly more if not for the calculation error on position size during first week which cost me double my risk (4% instead of 2%). Site has been updated for February 1st. Good luck to all on the new month!
  • #590,382
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:33pm Jan 31, 2012 11:33pm
Quoting dantebreath
Yes i agree with you, but we must be carefull with the SNB action to buy euro because now ECHF is in 1.2xxx level
a few month a go SNB say that they will do an unlimited intervence if the echf reach 1.2xxx by buying euro. This strong buying action can make Euro flying to the sky
http://tradingwithfundamental.blogspot.com/

now days SNB doing soft intervention , so it does no make much action on other pair , sort of fire warning shot and change trend
Mohan
  • #590,383
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:35pm Jan 31, 2012 11:35pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
He Bro

mmm my sl is ripe for pluck many looking to long, if she break down she be violent london, I like violent, I $2 whore, break down I orgasm, break up I brewers droop until she return ladies specially geppy identical tick tock tick tock
i am sleeping on keyboard , waiting for frankey and London
Mohan
  • #590,384
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:42pm Jan 31, 2012 11:42pm
I am still playing the SHS in 4h tf with 129 as a target .
stop if we break 131 .
  • #590,385
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:46pm Jan 31, 2012 11:46pm
on 06th september SNB made a huge intervention and eur/chf went up 1200 pips ( yes that much)
on the same day EUR/USD lost 300 pips .
so dont think because they are going to buy euro and sell francs that euro usd is going to fly
  • #590,386
  • Edited Feb 1, 2012 12:11am Jan 31, 2012 11:47pm | Edited Feb 1, 2012 12:11am
Quoting the redlion
USDX is reactionary to EUR/USD not the other way around

USDX is an index of USD performing among the major currencies of the world with 58.6% weight on the EUR/USD i believe
204 daily observation from 4/18/11 to 30/1/12.

Edit: I forgot that this is time series data, where the earlier date should came first. Here is the valid one.
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  • #590,387
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:49pm Jan 31, 2012 11:49pm
...............
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  • #590,388
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:51pm Jan 31, 2012 11:51pm
Quoting Passerby
204 daily observation from 4/18/11 to 30/1/12.
would you care to elaborate?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #590,389
  • Edited 12:14am Feb 1, 2012 12:00am | Edited 12:14am
Quoting the redlion
would you care to elaborate?
On 95% confidence level:
We could not reject that EURUSD does not granger cause Dollar Index on lag 2. And we also could not reject that Dollar Index does not granger cause EURUSD on lag 2.

We could not reject that EURUSD does not granger cause Dollar Index on lag 1. And we could not reject that Dollar Index does not granger cause EURUSD on lag 1.

Thats mean EURUSD movement do have effect on Dollar Index(since i use natural log value of EURUSD and Dollar Index) AND Dollar Index do have effect on EURUSD movement. But from probability value, we could say that Dollar Index effect on EURUSD is stronger than EURUSD effect on Dollar Index.

Edit: Repair has been made
  • #590,390
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:01am Feb 1, 2012 12:01am
I was expected a slow progress from bear after 2nd bullish attempt over 3200
Now bear made it harder. It will be very hard to touch 2980 region
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #590,391
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:04am Feb 1, 2012 12:04am
long from this trend line.buy @ 1.3055
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Read the chart... Fundies are catalyst...
  • #590,392
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:06am Feb 1, 2012 12:06am
I'm long still and have been buying e/u since 1.2642.


Quoting satheesh
long from this trend line.buy @ 1.3055
  • #590,393
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:07am Feb 1, 2012 12:07am
Austerity measures – tax hikes, cuts in budget spending – dampen growth. That, in turn, makes it harder to meet deficit and debt targets, forcing governments to implement more austerity measures, which further hit growth, and so on and so on


may i know why would austerity measures make it harder to meet debt targets? since the measures itself reduces spending debt. Is it more of a austerity measures becoming a short term effect where as in the long term it dampens growth?


Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/01/31/...#ixzz1l6ixewBA

  • #590,394
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:18am Feb 1, 2012 12:18am
Quoting Passerby
On 95% confidence level:
We could not reject that EURUSD does not granger cause Dollar Index on lag 2. And we also could not reject that Dollar Index does not granger cause EURUSD on lag 2.

We could not reject that EURUSD does not granger cause Dollar Index on lag 1. And we could not reject that Dollar Index does not granger cause EURUSD on lag 1.

Thats mean EURUSD movement do have effect on Dollar Index(since i use natural log value of EURUSD and Dollar Index) AND Dollar Index do have effect on EURUSD movement. But from probability value, we...
Well, we could understand this because EURUSD is a pair of currency. Dollar Index is a measure of dollar strength compared to a basket of currencies. And that's mean a potential rebound on dollar do put pressure on EURUSD pair.
  • #590,395
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:20am Feb 1, 2012 12:20am
Short Euro/USD
  • #590,396
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:24am Feb 1, 2012 12:24am
Quoting abinezer
Short Euro/USD
Could be but it is better to see hourly close.
  • #590,397
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:27am Feb 1, 2012 12:27am
Quoting koliva
Could be but it is better to see hourly close.
True...Daily TL broken and stochastic sliding down....
  • #590,398
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:28am Feb 1, 2012 12:28am
If we get established below 13040 Bears are back in control of this market.
  • #590,399
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:28am Feb 1, 2012 12:28am
Closed short for 33 pips, waiting for a better entry. I believe that 1.304x would hold until London open.
  • #590,400
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:29am Feb 1, 2012 12:29am
anyone long?
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