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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #299,581
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:37pm Jan 31, 2012 3:37pm
A retrace to the 50% fib would be nice for a reload upto 5900, however 38 might hold
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  • #299,582
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:44pm Jan 31, 2012 3:44pm
break below 1.5650/40 zone, previous lows / main bull trendline, would risk stronger weakness
  • #299,583
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:52pm Jan 31, 2012 3:52pm
GBP/JPY has retraced to the 50% on daily with todays candle looks like its ready to move north this week, so this pair should follow.
  • #299,584
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:03pm Jan 31, 2012 4:03pm
i saw a forecast saying the average price of gbp/usd would be 154 for febuary
and that the 10 year yeild for america was good

having a high yeild in the bond market
so i would expect the gbp to go down

however i am thinking we d hit the 1.60 mark

i feel i got into a short to early
1.575

there is a resistance at this level? mmm
  • #299,585
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:06pm Jan 31, 2012 4:06pm
well just looking at the yeild again im in the wrong
1.96 yeild in jan
1.92 feb
2.00 march

i ve got in to early on a short
think i might cut my losses short
any thoughts on this?
  • #299,586
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:28pm Jan 31, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting swano
well just looking at the yeild again im in the wrong
1.96 yeild in jan
1.92 feb
2.00 march

i ve got in to early on a short
think i might cut my losses short
any thoughts on this?
if i dont feel a position, and it is -10pips loss i close it without thinking 1minute more.

then is your money, do what you feel better, nobody can tell you what to do.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #299,587
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:47pm Jan 31, 2012 4:47pm
the simplest thing to watch.
no need indicators no need fibos. need nothing to understand this.
price closed 3 candles into this area where in last swing found heavy rejection to go for the 52.

demand is higher than supply.

eyes on 5700-30 area assuming that it will go there...
i wouldn't be surprised to find price above 5800 tomorrow morning.
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #299,588
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:49pm Jan 31, 2012 4:49pm
The pound usually follows the euro. Why didnt the pound follow today with the euro drop? Or do you think there will be a delayed reaction by the pound?
  • #299,589
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:06pm Jan 31, 2012 5:06pm
Quoting mintfx
The pound usually follows the euro. Why didnt the pound follow today with the euro drop? Or do you think there will be a delayed reaction by the pound?
euro looks like its gonna rocket south tomorrow yet this pair looks like its gonna move north along with gbp/jpy.
  • #299,590
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:15pm Jan 31, 2012 5:15pm
Closed out yesterdays long for 42 pips and have an Asian short. I was surprised we did not reach 58, but have seen this before. My cynical market theory says there are quite a few shorts waiting at 58 due to round number/ 61.8 fib/200ema confluence, but not any real STRONG resistance I can see. Market PA hinting of a possible reversal but not too convincing to me. Would not be surprised if market sucks in quite a few big shorts here, only to break through again to eventually reach next very strong resistance at 5090ish and 50fib from higher peak.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #299,591
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:42pm Jan 31, 2012 5:42pm
The PA on the Daily chart seems way too steep. No idea which direction it`s gonna go...
  • #299,592
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:19pm Jan 31, 2012 6:19pm
does anyone really think we d see 1.33 gbp/usd by july?
  • #299,593
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:20pm Jan 31, 2012 6:20pm
Quoting mintfx
The pound usually follows the euro. Why didnt the pound follow today with the euro drop? Or do you think there will be a delayed reaction by the pound?
My understanding is that Euro has a ~ 60% correlation to GBP, which means GBP will not track Euro all the time. Having said that, GU was tracking EU most of the day until the New York session started at 14 Hrs GMT. See chart below.

I earlier posted a Reuters update which said there was a month end dollar selling going on. Perhaps the Eurozone banks/large corporates weren't doing the same or did not have enough dollars to sell. This is only speculation on my part and please don't take it as fact .

The question is though, if it was the month end dollar selling, what will happen today? Will Euro comeback or GBP drop? or both will head north?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #299,594
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:22pm Jan 31, 2012 6:22pm
Quoting _BBKing_
if i dont feel a position, and it is -10pips loss i close it without thinking 1minute more.

then is your money, do what you feel better, nobody can tell you what to do.
thanks for your comment
dropped my stop loss lower and see how it goes
if i burn at least its something im willing to lose
might reserve thou not majorly confident about it just yet anyway.
  • #299,595
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:28pm Jan 31, 2012 6:28pm
Quoting Rasi
My understanding is that Euro has a ~ 60% correlation to GBP, which means GBP will not track Euro all the time. Having said that, GU was tracking EU most of the day until the New York session started at 14 Hrs GMT. See chart below.

I earlier posted a Reuters update which said there was a month end dollar selling going on. Perhaps the Eurozone banks/large corporates weren't doing the same or did not have enough dollars to sell. This is only speculation on my part and please don't take it as fact .

The question is though, if it was the month...
for what i know if eu keeps staying heavy donw, somewhere sometime gu will follow.
actually eur gbp is tanking like the hell and going down down down.
closed daily below monthly low (previous) maybe also monthly below previous low.
level to watch it 0800 then 07200
so.... maybe euro will keep being a lot weaker than gbp.
today they did it.

for my experience (recent) is better not to trade GU or EU in correlation.
is better trade them separately.
eu was supply area 3200 and went down.
GU supply are 58 did not down.
thats all, simple like this!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #299,596
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:31pm Jan 31, 2012 6:31pm
Quoting swano
does anyone really think we d see 1.33 gbp/usd by july?
1.33?
possible if another epic fail at 1.65 or at 1.62
but.... let it go to 1.60 now this or next week hopefully.
then lets see action there......
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #299,597
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:57pm Jan 31, 2012 6:57pm
Quoting _BBKing_
for what i know if eu keeps staying heavy donw, somewhere sometime gu will follow.
actually eur gbp is tanking like the hell and going down down down.
closed daily below monthly low (previous) maybe also monthly below previous low.
level to watch it 0800 then 07200
so.... maybe euro will keep being a lot weaker than gbp.
today they did it.

for my experience (recent) is better not to trade GU or EU in correlation.
is better trade them separately.
eu was supply area 3200 and went down.
GU supply are 58 did not down.
thats all,...
I agree. I used to trade EU but do not any more as there is too much political interference. However, EU has a big bearing on GU so always check it as a routine.

On the other hand, I do trade the EG pair which allows me to benefit from Euro's volatility. Due to EG's low ATR, I can set up trades and forget them for a while. No big wins to write home about but do collect regular pips.

Ciao.
  • #299,598
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:44pm Jan 31, 2012 8:44pm
what about this
Attached Image
  • #299,599
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:22pm Jan 31, 2012 9:22pm
Been a while. See charts.

Daily shows confluence of 38.2% and prior highs around 5760. Daily candle as of 00:00GMT failed to close above the prior highs.

H4 shows a bearish divergence on MACD.

If she falls, 5580 (38.2% retracement) would be a nice target.
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  • #299,600
  • Edited Feb 1, 2012 12:50am Jan 31, 2012 11:50pm | Edited Feb 1, 2012 12:50am
Morning , all ok , specially best doing now eu & may be work for next signal & gbpchf specially doing all wrong , up where it should not or not likely can hold for long time , a glitch for greater down while eurchf likely at good bounce at great level but limiting so far .

gu expecting 5735, 16 or down limit 5702 hold or not as 1st confirmation if can start correct more down or now .not, then may bull to next level 5875 limit .

eu doing better , waiting breaks 3049 at one tl & daily level sr to confirm more down & next breaks level 2932 as final ,care H4 support next if breaks 49 at 2956 , failing this specially at 3049 like gu to follow bull towards 3428 as seen before .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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