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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,981
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:16am Jan 31, 2012 12:16am
I chose to take a long from a merged profile view. The last 3 days weve had a form of balance. I went long as I saw initiative buying drive outside the previous 3 day balance. From a weekly IB perspective, its some what open drive type of action, and as today will complete te weekly IB, Im thinking price might move to the upside extending the wib, looking for acceptence or rejection at higher prices. Ill look to reverse my position when I get clues of responsive selling.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,982
  • Edited 2:40am Jan 31, 2012 2:16am | Edited 2:40am
I decided to take a small profit on the long and reverse my position.

Edit: I probably should have re entered my long , but I never feel comfortable getting long above value.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,983
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:24am Jan 31, 2012 3:24am
Quoting mzvega
I decided to take a small profit on the long and reverse my position.

Edit: I probably should have re entered my long , but I never feel comfortable getting long above value.
Not a good idea.....uh..?
  • #3,984
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:27am Jan 31, 2012 3:27am
Quoting santoshdts
Hii..Can we call this a spike base?
Entered Long @ 3188 SL @ Base.
Not really...
  • #3,985
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:34am Jan 31, 2012 3:34am
Quoting Evak
Just a short take of what has transpired & what's next....

1:Fridays end with a long inventory which see price correction immediately yesterday.
2rice then revisit Thursday's Balance range established during TK session.
3: We have some excesses running off the low of Thursday's Range with responsive activities & price eventually look back up when NY trades begin to initiates upwards with increase volume during the opening.
4: Todays TK open see price continuation upwards towards the range established during Fri's NY session & Mondays TK session...
Price reaction so far was within my expectation today. As price pullback into lower side of the value range prior to UK open. We see a response with increase volume just prior & then UK intiates up lifting the offers with increase volume..

Trade entry was place on the opening of UK with initial risk of 10p. Exposure reduce now with 41 pips as some resistance would be expected above this extreme...

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/831...0jan311723.gif

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  • #3,986
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:16am Jan 31, 2012 4:16am
Quoting Evak
I'm looking at it this way....

After breaking up from the 2nd week distribution, ES remains primarily bracketed for most part of last 2 weeks. Thursday excess brought about turn for this rotation back down, onto VAL today. Next then would be to test the upper range...with excess off VAH.

On the flip side failure or rejection into last 2weeks of merge distribution control could trickle down back to the 2nd week range..

Attachment
So far so good for ES, within expection for this upward rotation & now on approach to the upper range...

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/947...1jan311813.gif

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  • #3,987
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:55am Jan 31, 2012 5:55am
Quoting mzvega
I decided to take a small profit on the long and reverse my position.

Edit: I probably should have re entered my long , but I never feel comfortable getting long above value.
Would u be considering this area of Low usage (LUA).....where price may ledge on to fill eventualy? (Nice to see your post)

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  • #3,988
  • Jan 31, 2012 7:54am Jan 31, 2012 7:54am
First post updated

If the major contributors send me a link it will be on the OP asap
  • #3,989
  • Jan 31, 2012 8:51am Jan 31, 2012 8:51am
Quoting Evak
Would u be considering this area of Low usage (LUA).....where price may ledge on to fill eventualy? (Nice to see your post)

http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/2...3jan311952.gif

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It looks like it should fill in however,
Im only looking at the monthly profile, but with the single print area in last months profile , Im wondering if this is when I should be looking at last months double distribution , and consider each distibution its own profile (balance area). With 12wks of merge, thats a lot of time thats gone by and price action was very different. Im beginning to see your 12wk merge as possibly 2 separate distibutions, and im thinking that it might be worth considering /trading each distibution as its own balance area. Ill have to keep watching.
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,990
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:07am Jan 31, 2012 9:07am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
Price reaction so far was within my expectation today. As price pullback into lower side of the value range prior to UK open. We see a response with increase volume just prior & then UK intiates up lifting the offers with increase volume..

Trade entry was place on the opening of UK with initial risk of 10p. Exposure reduce now with 41 pips as some resistance would be expected above this extreme...

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/831...0jan311723.gif

Uploaded...
i took that long too, on the retracement of second opening TPO from london. i almost fall for a short after price failed to auction higher and after the ledge almost spill over, ledge formed near by last tokyo high. anyway i got long with take profit near by last day high, even we had an open drive type in london, tokyo's IB suggested more like a normal, neutral day type for today's structure.
of course my take profit point was missed by few pips and now i woke up and see i closed on loss. great succes
seems like we got some confidence in NY but with this structure and last days action i will look to trade the extremes, hopefully i will be luckyer
  • #3,991
  • Edited 10:18am Jan 31, 2012 9:15am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting s7c
i took that long too, on the retracement of second opening TPO from london. i almost fall for a short after price failed to auction higher and after the ledge almost spill over, ledge formed near by last tokyo high. anyway i got long with take profit near by last day high, even we had an open drive type in london, tokyo's IB suggested more like a normal, neutral day type for today's structure.
of course my take profit point was missed by few pips and now i woke up and see i closed on loss. great succes
seems like we got some confidence...
I was holding on till i notice twice failure to look above TK high & also twice it took out the OTF low. I've since reverse my position...Now back into the lower range again..mzvega was right about her concern when it was overvalue then....

Edit: forget to mention a key point in which UK session fail to RE with a small spike & reverse back & close into IBR....
  • #3,992
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:50am Jan 31, 2012 9:50am
Quoting Evak
So far so good for ES, within expection for this upward rotation & now on approach to the upper range...


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very nicely read! i'm short again. upthrust above developing VAH at US pit open, near last 2 weeks VAH, and right at previous quarterly VAH & control. first target 1280 area, but i'm thinking this may be the start of a large down move for the market...first step is to see 1307 break, and value build below 1295.

EDIT: looks like ES is starting a trend day. see 2nd pic.
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Change is the only constant
  • #3,993
  • Jan 31, 2012 10:25am Jan 31, 2012 10:25am
Quoting tgwhbb
very nicely read! i'm short again. upthrust above developing VAH at US pit open, near last 2 weeks VAH, and right at previous quarterly VAH & control. first target 1280 area, but i'm thinking this may be the start of a large down move for the market...first step is to see 1307 break, and value build below 1295.

EDIT: looks like ES is starting a trend day. see 2nd pic.
I am leaning on the LLB for now in this case since ES is still trading within the last 2 weeks range...
  • #3,994
  • Jan 31, 2012 10:34am Jan 31, 2012 10:34am
Quoting tgwhbb
very nicely read! i'm short again. upthrust above developing VAH at US pit open, near last 2 weeks VAH, and right at previous quarterly VAH & control. first target 1280 area, but i'm thinking this may be the start of a large down move for the market...first step is to see 1307 break, and value build below 1295.

EDIT: looks like ES is starting a trend day. see 2nd pic.
Great to see you back! Your attention to detail was greatly missed. its funny how every time price so beautifully respects the wibs line, and I think "damn I love this indicator", you always come to mind! Its still one of the indicators I cant live without!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #3,995
  • Jan 31, 2012 10:42am Jan 31, 2012 10:42am
Eu back into the lower range (see chart) with now running into excess. Weeky profile here indicates rejection of that LVN as price sprung off it. So now strucuture should be expecting a pause & auctioning to balance (step 2 & 3 of steidmayer 4step process)..another words, massive LLB int a b formation.

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  • #3,996
  • Jan 31, 2012 11:32am Jan 31, 2012 11:32am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
2 pages in one day? first time since i'm here
evak, what do you mean by LVN & LVU? the same as LVA(low volume area)?
i almost took a long at the break of balance, i'm looking to get long in next TPO if see it. i need to think more at the stedlemayer method...
  • #3,997
  • Edited 1:04pm Jan 31, 2012 12:23pm | Edited 1:04pm
sorry for the delay, i haven't seen the post until recently -

here's the template. m15 shows daily va, m30 shows weekly va, h1 & h4 show monthly va.

make sure you have ay-DynValue.dll.v2.1 indicator installed.

Quoting zackery
Hi Scrat,
is it possible that you share a template with the dynamic value indicator settings with us?
would be great.
thanks
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl dynamic-va.tpl   4 KB | 855 downloads
File Type: rar dynvalue.v2.1.rar   9 KB | 1,027 downloads
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #3,998
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:29pm Jan 31, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting Scrat
sorry for the delay, i haven't seen the post until recently -

here's the template. m15 shows daily va, m30 shows weekly va, h1 & h4 show monthly va.

make sure you have ay-DynValue.dll.v2.1 indicator installed.

Sorry, can you post ay-DynValue.dll.v2.1 plz.?

Thanks
  • #3,999
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:00pm Jan 31, 2012 3:00pm
Quoting Evak
I am leaning on the LLB for now in this case since ES is still trading within the last 2 weeks range...
once again you are right. given the support found at current week VAL, would you now expect to explore weekly VAH again?
Change is the only constant
  • #4,000
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:17pm Jan 31, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting s7c
2 pages in one day? first time since i'm here
evak, what do you mean by LVN & LVU? the same as LVA(low volume area)?
i almost took a long at the break of balance, i'm looking to get long in next TPO if see it. i need to think more at the stedlemayer method...
LVN is known as the low voume node, as oppose to the HVN or High Vlume node, also refer as the POC as u know...

LUA (low usage area) is a term use in reference to the area where price have lower then normal usage or distribution, usually the area between 2 high volume distributions.

As for EU, which is still distributing for now. After such down move, u should expect price to make a lower low or another swing low. From then on u should be able to guage for potential divergence if any for a reversion, but as of now till UK open, it should be gearing for furthur shorts...
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