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EUR/CHF

  • #2,641
  • Jan 30, 2012 9:37am Jan 30, 2012 9:37am
I hope to see SNB intervention first, after that BOJ intervention
  • #2,642
  • Jan 30, 2012 9:38am Jan 30, 2012 9:38am
Quoting Blue.Trader
I hope to see SNB intervention first, after that BOJ intervention
Good idea, sounds like a plan!
  • #2,643
  • Jan 30, 2012 9:41am Jan 30, 2012 9:41am
Quoting intermiten
if SNB intervenes EUR/CHF, EUR/USD will move north or south?
If SNB intervene then USD/CHF and EUR/CHF gonna fly.. .but mostly U/C bcz they will intervene by weakening CHF.... this won't have much effect on E/U....movement of E/C will mostly depends upon the movement in E/U after intervention... If E/U shoots up after intervention then we may witness a double shooting up in E/C...jst a simple equation:

EUR/USD + USD/CHF = EUR/CHF
  • #2,644
  • Jan 30, 2012 9:44am Jan 30, 2012 9:44am
Quoting Forexgain
If SNB intervene then USD/CHF and EUR/CHF gonna fly.. .but mostly U/C bcz they will intervene by weakening CHF.... this won't have much effect on E/U....movement of E/C will mostly depends upon the movement in E/U after intervention... If E/U shoots up after intervention then we may witness a double shooting up in E/C...jst a simple equation:

EUR/USD + USD/CHF = EUR/CHF
It's EUR/USD * USD/CHF = EUR/CHF
  • #2,645
  • Jan 30, 2012 9:52am Jan 30, 2012 9:52am
They would be mostly selling CHF by printing it, more than buying EUR with reserve capital, this is why the eurusd would not be moved so much since it's not stemming from a real eur demand. usdchf would move up like mad since they are printing CHF which weakens it.
If they buy EUR without printing CHF, then they aren't primarily selling CHF as much as they are buying EUR for real, and in that case the eurusd would also go up as real demand for eur goes up.
  • #2,646
  • Jan 30, 2012 10:04am Jan 30, 2012 10:04am
Quoting werido
It's EUR/USD * USD/CHF = EUR/CHF
I am talking about pips movement buddy...
  • #2,647
  • Jan 30, 2012 10:05am Jan 30, 2012 10:05am
Nice h1, H4 candle.

May be the goal is: close as much long as possible, and open as much short as possible. This would be ideally for intervention.

I think this is the best opportunity now to open long position, because the good risk reward.

The problem is, that lot of trader opened the long from higher level, and in this situation close it.

May be we could find some buyers/or look some short covering.
  • #2,648
  • Jan 30, 2012 9:41pm Jan 30, 2012 9:41pm
Technically it was a false breakout from the falling edge.

I am still think that we will see some short covering to 1.2090 first, then 1.2160-1.2200

I have read a lot of blogs, forums. Everybody was long above 1.2050, 1.21, 1.22. But this level nobody wants to buy. But here is the best RR. It is interesting.

The only question for me: what will first? short covering/light intervention to 1.2090-1.22 range, or test lower levels? Time will tell. May be the euopean opens (tipical intervention time for SNB), and macro data (UBS Consuption indicator) come some sovering first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,649
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:00am Jan 31, 2012 1:00am
From Dow Jones: "Barclays Capital is looking to buy EUR/CHF weakness towards 1.2020, and against the SNB's 1.20 floor. Topside, a break above 1.2150 would encourage the bank to add to its fresh longs, looking for a move to 1.22 and then 1.2245. BarCap also notes that a higher close for the cross late Tuesday, after settling around 1.2053 Monday, would post a bullish divergence warning. EUR/CHF is now at 1.2054."
  • #2,650
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:06am Jan 31, 2012 1:06am
Quoting multi888
From Dow Jones: "Barclays Capital is looking to buy EUR/CHF weakness towards 1.2020, and against the SNB's 1.20 floor. Topside, a break above 1.2150 would encourage the bank to add to its fresh longs, looking for a move to 1.22 and then 1.2245. BarCap also notes that a higher close for the cross late Tuesday, after settling around 1.2053 Monday, would post a bullish divergence warning. EUR/CHF is now at 1.2054."
I'm not much of a fundie expert, but this seems like a no brainer. Is there a reason that every single person in FF isn't long with at 1.2050 with a 75 pip stop? Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems like free money.
  • #2,651
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:20am Jan 31, 2012 1:20am
Another strategy from yesterday!
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...g_Survive.html

Maybe usefull.
  • #2,652
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:30am Jan 31, 2012 1:30am
Quoting infinity76
Another strategy from yesterday!
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...g_Survive.html

Maybe usefull.
Hrm... The only thing that worries me is that they say it will eventually break the peg. How committed are the Swiss to keeping that peg intact for the forseeable future?
  • #2,653
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:32am Jan 31, 2012 1:32am
Quoting PipJaeger
Hrm... The only thing that worries me is that they say it will eventually break the peg. How committed are the Swiss to keeping that peg intact for the forseeable future?

Just read it with a pinch of salt...no one knows what will happen next.
  • #2,654
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:52am Jan 31, 2012 3:52am
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Swiss franc continues its relentless appreciation against the euro, accelerated since the last SNB quarterly meeting last December where the central bank has decided to leave the peg unchanged at CHF 1.20 per euro. Back to those days the pair was trading around the 1.2400 area, falling since then as low as 1.2040 in yesterday’s session.

S.Holbek, analyst at Danske Bank, comments that a test to the SNB’s resolve could be more likely after former President P.Hildebrand’s resignation. Although he remarks that the peg will be respected as deflationary pressures are looming the alpine economy. “From that perspective, SNB action could be imminent”, he finished.
  • #2,655
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:53am Jan 31, 2012 3:53am
but dunt forget nexxt week wehave our swiss CPI....
Bismillah
  • #2,656
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:54am Jan 31, 2012 3:54am
The earlier "dead-cat" bounce to 1.2063 was soon forgotten, and the EUR's sinceslipped back again towards yesterday's low of 1.2040 to 1.2047. There's some large bids sitting below at 1.2030/40 ahead of the barrier and the SNB floor of 1.2000, with large sell stops positioned for a break of the peg.
  • #2,657
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:57am Jan 31, 2012 3:57am
http://cdn.fxstreet.com/images/sun.jpg
  • #2,658
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:13am Jan 31, 2012 4:13am
Quoting multi888
http://cdn.fxstreet.com/images/sun.jpg
i think this not applicable since we are dealing with yen carry or yen buyers yen unwinding from 2007..hehehe
Bismillah
  • #2,659
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:25am Jan 31, 2012 4:25am
http://www.wallstreetwatchman.com/20...with-euro.html

i googled eur/chf and found this longer term macro analysis and wanted to share
  • #2,660
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:46am Jan 31, 2012 4:46am
I'm waiting to break the peg, it is very boring. Maybe the SNB act.
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