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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #20,861
  • Jan 25, 2012 8:31pm Jan 25, 2012 8:31pm
Quoting rekon67
Well, I'm not sure about the pennant pattern, but price did not broke yet right? if till uk open it hoovers up 1.3060-80 area then price may resume up (IMO)
There's no telling where price will go. IMHO the market got drunk on QE3 hopium today and may have a hangover tomorrow because what did the fed really do..... Nothing..... but run their mouth and the market went nuts.

I'm not a pattern trader, others with much more knowledge on that subject than me will have to help him there.

My point was the way he drew it it was broken but it also looked like he was forcing himself to see something that really wasn't clear.

For chits and giggles I conected them and if you connect the highs and the lows on the 15 you get a falling wedge... Me, I'll stick to my supply and demand levels on the daily

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #20,862
  • Jan 25, 2012 8:33pm Jan 25, 2012 8:33pm
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120125158088/
  • #20,863
  • Jan 25, 2012 8:35pm Jan 25, 2012 8:35pm
Are You Reading My Posts and are you learning anything and how is your girlfriend ?

Peace Out - Say Hello To Dad for me...
  • #20,864
  • Jan 25, 2012 8:42pm Jan 25, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting PipKiller
There's no telling where price will go. IMHO the market got drunk on QE3 hopium today and may have a hangover tomorrow because what did the fed really do..... Nothing..... but run their mouth and the market went nuts.

I'm not a pattern trader, others with much more knowledge on that subject than me will have to help him there.

My point was the way he drew it it was broken but it also looked like he was forcing himself to see something that really wasn't clear.

For chits and giggles I conected them and if you connect the highs and the...
in my opinion the REACTION is genuine it is felt across all asset classes........it is not QE hopium, what the market is drunk with.

the federal funds rate will be kept low till 2014 lets think about that.

bond yields will be low, the cost of borrowing money is cheap so you have cheap capital for risk taking as saving continues to bring negative returns....especially with inflation whether real or perceived.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,865
  • Jan 25, 2012 8:45pm Jan 25, 2012 8:45pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Are You Reading My Posts and are you learning anything and how is your girlfriend ?

Peace Out - Say Hello To Dad for me...
hey Bruce

im BEAT. REALLY BEAT. 3 trades stopped at BE. 20+ USD gold short move - 70 pips dow short - eu short 60 pips stopped out all at BE +2 o r +7 or whatever.

ticks me off to the core that i didnt go long on a clear PA signal or even took profits.
i look like a fcuking amateur with the atittude of not checking updated PA or knowing whats going on by analyzing lower tfs.

ticks me off to be an amateur again.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #20,866
  • Jan 25, 2012 9:04pm Jan 25, 2012 9:04pm
Quoting the redlion
in my opinion the REACTION is genuine it is felt across all asset classes........it is not QE hopium, what the market is drunk with.

the federal funds rate will be kept low till 2014 lets think about that.

bond yields will be low, the cost of borrowing money is cheap so you have cheap capital for risk taking as saving continues to bring negative returns....especially with inflation whether real or perceived.
I do everytime I look at my savings account. Savings rates are a joke. Get rid of the Eurozone crisis headlines and the dollar would continue to nosedive and I'd be a dollar bear with a vengance. With Ben and the fed out of the way, I think the main focus will go right back to Greece until the debt isue is resolved..... Then the media talking heads will have to turn to the next crisis LOL.

However, that doesn't mean they can't move them up to stave off inflation and still have "low" rates.

Hell, as low as rates are now they could go up a point or more and still be low LOL.

And the currency war saga between US, China, Japan, Switzerland and Europe continues.. He who has the cheapest money wins
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #20,867
  • Jan 25, 2012 9:08pm Jan 25, 2012 9:08pm
All Points Of View Are Good To Learn From ...

http://larouchepac.com/planetarydefe...20124_1_24_112
  • #20,868
  • Jan 25, 2012 9:29pm Jan 25, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting knoholygrail
What Do You Think Of My Views on what happened today. Your independent opinion is valued...

PipKiller also your thoughts... Is Your Wife doing good ? My best wishes...
At this point a strong USD will wreck the fragile "recovery" in the US. Bernanke was doing his job to talk the USD down. The fall itself was based upon a knee jerk reaction to the thought of the possiblity of QE. The net sum of what he promised was 0. He implied that he would "probably" maintain the low rates into 2014.

I personally see it as very bearish (and thus USD bullish). He is saying in effect "Things are not good and they are not going to get better quickly".
.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20,869
  • Jan 25, 2012 9:43pm Jan 25, 2012 9:43pm
actually Aaron, it is not the FED that devalues the currency it is the congress through deficit spending.

when you have low taxes, and deficit spending you have credits to the private sector without debiting liquidity to from the system.

what you do have the FEDs doing in reality is encouraging the swap of money already spent into existence to a more liquid asset.

if banks hold bonds with higher yield...their incentive to hold bonds and collect the interest is high and the risk is minimal.

now with the FED at low rates what they want to encourage is to have the big financial sector, convert this bonds for cash and allocate it in riskier assets to "jump start" the economy via investments.

the FOMC is attempting to be more transparent and give certainty and to the market.

however the demand for US cash goes down and carry trades, diversification into higher yielding instruments and markets will be done by investors attempting to profit and beat inflation.

what i do not like from this Fiat system is the pernicious tendency to create asset bubbles and unintended inflation by influx of capital into commodities in expectation of inflation.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,870
  • Jan 25, 2012 9:46pm Jan 25, 2012 9:46pm
a weak dollar means loss in purchasing power= inflation through commodity rising cost. Real wages are still not keeping up with loss purchasing power so in effect you have wages being driven down by increased costs

which is the same thing as deflation except that in that event you have falling prices and falling wages. here you have falling purchasing power thus creating falling real wages
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,871
  • Jan 25, 2012 9:56pm Jan 25, 2012 9:56pm
so i suppose what i am trying to say is that Austrian economics still hold ground in a fiat system except that the backing of the money is not intrinsic value of a commodity backed currency

but the value of the production of goods and services that can be redeemed, by the vehicle of exchange.

so inflation Aaron, since you like it so much, is pernicious as the value of the currency needs to maintain its ability to obtain goods and services.

you cannot just inflate the debt
you cannot manipulate the market

and a balanced budget does need to exist as every thing needs to be paid for one way or another.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,872
  • Jan 25, 2012 9:59pm Jan 25, 2012 9:59pm
Thanks for the feedback guys. Much appreciated. I will check out the resource page and study up some more before posting additional charts.

I see what you're saying PK, the initial breakout was followed by a breakout downward in between FOMC release and Cotton-mouthed Ben. This could/would make the pennant moot.

As of now, just starting to learn tech., I always feel like I'm forcing something. Hopefully that will change with more practice.

I'm interested in learning how much wiggle room techies give their formations. I suppose one just gets a feel for it.

Cbg -I added a trend line to my highs. Thanks for the encouragement.

Reckon - I'm just getting into pivots (yes, i'm that new to forex). I will check that out.

PK, I hope you live in Montana with lots of land to let that .223 run.

Cheers
  • #20,873
  • Jan 25, 2012 10:09pm Jan 25, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting knoholygrail
You are in the right place and there is an incredible wealth of knowledge on this great thread. You are very correct in your analysis and you have earned a voucher from me. The pupil can teach the master by asking questions that allow more learning by the teacher.

Take care and see my previous post on money flow.

Thanks Kno for the voucher
  • #20,874
  • Jan 25, 2012 10:13pm Jan 25, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting GrizzNasty
Thanks for the feedback guys. Much appreciated. I will check out the resource page and study up some more before posting additional charts.

I see what you're saying PK, the initial breakout was followed by a breakout downward in between FOMC release and Cotton-mouthed Ben. This could/would make the pennant moot.

As of now, just starting to learn tech., I always feel like I'm forcing something. Hopefully that will change with more practice.

I'm interested in learning how much wiggle room techies give their formations. I suppose one...
the best wiggle room to give is away from volatility, there are many ways to achieve this, one of them is standard deviations, S/R, S/D, or pertinent price levels.

historical statistical homoskedastic volatility also works,

try to learn the normal ranges of the pairs in question (homskedastic) and current distribution in normal price variations (heteroskedastic)

or anticipate price formations and see if the level of your stop would render it moot.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,875
  • Jan 25, 2012 10:18pm Jan 25, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting knoholygrail
There were two issues here today. First and most IMPORTANT Bernake has no more clothes on so the MARKET knew more Money Printing which means loss of value. (MONETARY INFLATION)

Gold Shot up and at the same time the Markets said RISK ON so they went out of the US Bonds into other Asset Classes including EUR/USD.

SO WHY DID THE US BOND YIELDS GO DOWN !!!

The 1% F U C K E D the 99% again...

How ?

The Bond Dealers starting buying the US Bonds with their HIDDEN PROFITS so that they could RESELL IT TO THE FED AT A PROFIT !!!

Does This...
Inflate your way out of debt and fatten up the bankers.

That chit makes me want to puke.


Wifes doing well, we're just keeping up with old problems so they don't become a big problem.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #20,876
  • Edited Jan 26, 2012 8:34am Jan 25, 2012 10:29pm | Edited Jan 26, 2012 8:34am
Hi Redlion,

Primary debasing of the currency is through the fractional reserve ratio. The Fed regulates the use of this facility through interest rates. Deficit spending debases the currency through the fractional reserve ratio in exactly the same way all other debt does.

The other two forms of debasing currency are the actual printing of money (ie paper money) and electronic printing of money. Only the Fed really does much of either, so yes, they have real power to debase the currency in addition to their most significant power to regulate the creation of money by the private sector through setting interest rates.

Goods and services exist regardless of the monetary system. Money's primary function is to facilitate exchange. The number of zeros on the dollar is pretty irrelevant provided everybody agrees on its relative value. What is extremely relevant is the speed zeros get on your currency. If the zeros get there too fast, there is a loss of confidence and then system falls apart.

You are quite right that in order to exchange goods, money must store value. However, a 3% rate of depreciation is slow enough to be manageable.

Asset bubbles are not created by fiat currency, but rather by markets. Nobody wants to sell a valuable commodity (or whatever) while many people want to buy it. Price rises until it is unreasonable... and then rises some more even faster. Then prices collapse. Many historical examples of asset bubbles back in the day when gold ruled the roost.

What we have now in the US... mildly declining wages while real world goods rise in cost ...works exactly the same as a rapidly lowering wages. Sad (for the US) is that we now live in a global market for labor and this market is extremely unbalanced. Chinese workers make 10% of what American workers make. In order for the global markets to come into balance we need the US workers to lower wages further and Chinese workers to raise wages. So I guess you could say I agree with you but see no way around a the "flattening" of the world. One day the Chinese and the Indians will receive the same real wages as Americans and all this will become a non-issue.

Practically speaking, a 30% wage cut is impossible to minister to the American worker... but 30% inflation is relatively easy to administer.

And history says you can inflate your way out of debt.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20,877
  • Jan 25, 2012 10:43pm Jan 25, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting GrizzNasty
Thanks for the feedback guys. Much appreciated. I will check out the resource page and study up some more before posting additional charts.

I see what you're saying PK, the initial breakout was followed by a breakout downward in between FOMC release and Cotton-mouthed Ben. This could/would make the pennant moot.

As of now, just starting to learn tech., I always feel like I'm forcing something. Hopefully that will change with more practice.

I'm interested in learning how much wiggle room techies give their formations. I suppose one just gets...
Don't force it, it'll come.

Like redlion said, you want your stops just outside of the volitility of the timeframe (TF) you are trading. You will have to use what you find works best for you. For me, it's supply and demand levels (S/D), others use average true range (ATR), support and resistace levels (S/R), some will use fibonacchi (Fibs) etc.... Don't forget to use this with good money management so you don't overleverage yourself with too big of a position size for the stop you are using.

If you go into my journal thread you can see how I place my stops on supply and demand levels on daily charts. Watch other experienced traders charts and see how they place their stops on their trades with how they trade too.

This is a good thread to learn both fundamentals and see what others use for trading the technicals. Everyone has their own style and I find it helps to see what pattern traders, price action (PA) or fib traders are using and often how they come together with supply and demand levels I use.

If you don't understand something, please ask. There are no dumb questions but many of us can come up with some stupid answers


I'm in North Carolina, don't need a lot of land. We just shoot out the back winder at anything that moves.... And if it's still moving after we shoot, we just shoot it again
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #20,878
  • Jan 25, 2012 10:58pm Jan 25, 2012 10:58pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hi Redlion,

Primary debasing of the currency is through the fractional reserve ratio. The Fed regulates the use of this facility through interest rates. Deficit spending debases the currency through the fractional reserve ratio in exactly the same way all other debt does.

The other two forms of debasing currency are the actual printing of money (ie paper money) and electronic printing of money. Only the Fed really does much of either, so yes, they have real power to debase the currency in addition to their most significant power which regulates...

maybe is just semantics but lateral money does not affect money supply however it can create credit crunches as the extension of credit outpaces liquidity. A bank liability becomes an asset and a deposit becomes a withdrawal and all is balanced at the end via borrowing from interbank or the discount window at the fed. Bonds are used as a tool to meet the over night rate.

anyway

congress is actually the biggest culprit of debasement not the FED, as congress needs to spend the money, in order for it to be create it in the system.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,879
  • Jan 25, 2012 11:02pm Jan 25, 2012 11:02pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hi Redlion,

What we have now in the US... mildly declining wages while real world goods rise in cost ...works exactly the same as a rapidly lowering wages. Sad (for the US) is that we now live in a global market for labor and this market is extremely unbalanced. Chinese workers make 10% of what American workers make. In order for the global markets to come into balance we need the US workers to lower wages further and Chinese workers to raise wages. So I guess you could say I agree with you but see no way around a the "flattening" of the...
Increasing Chinese wages while lowering American wages could make China less competitive, in turn, bringing more jobs back to the US?

Thanks PK. This really is a great resource, though at times, having only taken ECON 110 8 years ago, I feel relatively like I'm sitting in on a Graduate level seminar full of Financial Goliaths.
  • #20,880
  • Jan 25, 2012 11:05pm Jan 25, 2012 11:05pm
Quoting GrizzNasty
Increasing Chinese wages while lowering American wages could make China less competitive, in turn, bringing more jobs back to the US?

Thanks PK. This really is a great resource, though at times, having only taken ECON 110 8 years ago, I feel relatively like I'm sitting in on a Graduate level seminar full of Financial Goliaths.

i have never taken econ aside from basic high school econ

i but i like to research.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
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