EurAnalysis

Excellent Rod! Sums up the Mindset!

May be we can earn some profit of selling it for short time frame. But there is yet to have a candle reversal confirmation and consider week is still bullish. I do not see any major down this week ... consider a range still up atleast 1.32xx (if achieved then 1.34xx but in next week) on the down 1.2930 is max for the week.

Edit: Weekly is forming Broadening Bottoms for the pair, can you range the top?

I will try to explain how it works. Let's start with EUR/USD which is now at 1.3106 and EUR/JPY which is at 101.92 and USD/JPY which is 77.77


Here is how it works MOST of the time in real life.

Usually if EUR/JPY goes up 100 PIPS because there is buying of Euro's and selling of Yen, EUR/USD moves along with it. I asked twice today for someone to do a chart. Now thanks to our friend who just got a voucher we have a chart. Do these Three Charts side by side over the LAST 2 WEEKS... Then post your observations based on what you see on the charts...

One 4 Hour Chart and a 15 Minute Chart...

A few days ago or in the last week when EUR/JPY was hugging 100.00 I pointed out on my posts which you can look back at and see that I said if EUR/JPY went from 100.00 to 99.50 WHICH IT DID that EUR/USD would go down at least 90% of the 50 PIPS and it did. Sometimes USD/JPY might NOT MOVE so if that is the case you need to look at other things.

Put Up The Charts so WE ALL Can see the Picture of what happened. A Picture is worth a Thousand Words !!! Thanks...

Today the MOMENT that BENNY BS BERNAKE released the news at 12:30 guess what happened ?

The REAL DECISION MAKERS voted and what they decided JUST LIKE I posted this morning... Whatever Bernake and the other 8 Mental Dwarfs say take the opposite position.

The Big Boys and a few Girls said WOW !!! Benny is going to PRINT BABY PRINT and sure enough Gold went up $40 US Plus as I told everyone to watch in my morning report. If you like my morning report I can do one every day for our Thread.

Please do not think I am not being humble here however I can't help it if I know what I am talking about since that is how I earn my living.

Most of the time I use EUR/JPY as a leading Indicator...


The more you know the more you need to learn in order to grow. If you think you know it all than you know nothing. I know something having been in the forex business 8 plus years now.

Here is something more on Leading and Lagging Indicators that I learned 3 Plus years ago listening to Rick Santelli of CNBC.

Pending Home Sales and Existing Home Sales for December 2011 are lagging indicators so if the next New Home Sales are down then you see the recent trend. Many times the lagging indicators which come before New Home Sales mislead and the New Home Sales are down and that is my EDGE which might be yours as well now that you know.

I will try to be more humble...

Today was a fun day and now if Greece Falls apart there is a chance EUR/USD will come back 200 PIPS or more. (Down)

ALL BENNY did today was earn a free supper in Davos and maybe a wild night on the town with DKS the former head of the IMF.

I think the former PM of Italy and the present head of France were invited...

Any thoughts on my post pro or other are welcome and appreciated...

When Risk Clearly Came back on after 2:15 PM and it was Party Hardy time, ALL Asset Classes got bought. Gold was UP for a different reason.

Notice how the Yield went down which means money went into the US Dollar yet US Dollar Index went down and Gold went up...

There were many many shorts in EUR/USD and many got stopped out along the way up... This was a unique unusual day. There is an historic pattern that you can check back on whenever there is a FED Rate Decision... Whichever way EUR/USD goes it reverses within 24 hours once traders figure it all out. However it is possible that in the last year this is no longer valid since there is SO MUCH QE now. I just point it out in case we see a reversal in US Dollar Index by Thursday.

Also WATCH Jobless Claims to see if it holds near 350,000 or bounces UP towards 400,000...

The Market WILL TANK if it goes to 400,000...

That's it for the moment. All questions, comments and feedback is welcome.

Thanks!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Time For Our Daily Benchmarks !!!
I start of with EUR/USD at 1.2960 and then to EUR/JPY at 101.22

Then we move over to USD/JPY at 78.10

Now to GBP/USD at 1.5570 and USD/CHF at 93.22 and AUD/USD at 1.0469 with last of all my Canadian Dollar (YES) at 101.30

I posted all the prices since this is FED DAY and I want to compare where the money flows by the end of the day at 5:00 PM EST at Rollover Time.

Does anyone know that on a Wednesday there is Rollover for three days at once ?

I learned that about 6 years ago...

Now to Gold at $1655.63 US Spot and Oil at $98.19 US Spot...

The Dow Futures are down 41 now and ALL of Europe is down so RISK is OFF.... For The Moment...

The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is .24% now and the Yield on the 10 Year US Bonds is 2.04% with the SPREAD between them at 180 Basis Points...

If EUR/JPY goes below 101.00 it probably will bring EUR/USD down as well. Can someone post the charts that I suggested would be helpful ? Thanks ... As Dow Futures go down if they do then EUR/USD should come down as well. Watch Support and Resistance on the 5 Minute and 15 Minute Charts and DO NOT ASSUME ANYTHING...

Be ready for Trade Patterns between now and 9:30 AM EST.

Watch how the Markets BEHAVE once the MONEY FLOW STARTS at 9:30 this morning. Look at Large Calls or Puts that expire at 10:00 AM EST today and each day between Monday and Friday at 10:00 AM...

New Kno Comments NOW...


EUR/USD is at 1.3101 and EUR/JPY is at 101.86 and USD/JPY is at 77.74 with GBP/USD at 1.5655 and USD/CHF at 92.19...

The CAD is at 100.43 with Gold at Spot $1,708.00 US

What does that tell you ?

Thanks Kno, I will look at those pairs and try to see the correlation as you've pointed out.

Much appreciated!

http://www.finviz.com/forex.ashx

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-bernanke.html

Snippet:

The $HUI gold miner index blasted higher on the FOMC announcement. Interestingly gold and silver blasted higher before the announcement.

Treasuries rallied as banks and brokers font-ran the trade.

This is all well and good for the 1% and for the banks that front-ran the bond trade, but it sure is not doing anything good for those on fixed income or most of the 99%.

I wrote about the plight of those on fixed income in detail, nearly one year ago in Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie".

Hello Stephanie, uncle Ben promises more of the same

Thanks for the input I really appreciate your analysis, I'm constantly learning keep it flowing!

"The more you know the more you need to learn in order to grow."

Hi guys,

I'm as noob as it gets with forex. I'm a microbiologist who just picked up FOREX and have been live for a month. I am brand new to technical analysis (and still skeptical). According to my newly purchased book from Barnes and Noble it looks like we could have a classic pennant forming? Please rip this chart apart so I can get better.

This would signal to buy at 1.3120 with a potential fib target in the low 1.33/high 1.32 range?? Thanks again for all the knowledge!

I'm trying to piece it all together. It's difficult when starting out to figure out the big picture. I was confused before the rate announcement when yields were steadily going down, but EURUSD remained in a range (do you think this was in anticipation of the news?). Then, when the announcement came out of the unchanged rate, the yields plummeted, and EURUSD skyrocketed. This is opposite of what I thought was supposed to happen.

I was under the assumption that when the yields go down, it means that money is flowing into bonds. To get the money to buy bonds, people need to sell the other asset classes such as EUR, Gold, etc. If that were the case, when the yields plummeted, we should have seen the EURUSD plummet also (along with all the other risky asset classes). The opposite happened. Or was the only reason the EURUSD rocketed higher was short covering?

Can you please try to help me understand what exactly happened today and where the money was flowing. Thanks so much!!!

Possible, may be resume point would be from the pivot 1.3060-80 area?

No Link - Just In Hot Off The Press ... Great Point of View...


Doug Casey on the Collapse of the Euro and the EU
(Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator)
L: So Doug, a lot of readers are concerned about what's going on in Europe. Is this the beginning of the proverbial "it?" Or can the Eurozone be saved?
Doug: In brief, the answers are "yes," then "no" - and a "good riddance" to both the Eurozone and the euro. But most people think the old order should be maintained at almost any cost. That would include George Soros, who recently penned an article called Does the Euro Have a Future?
Now, I don't normally look to Soros for economic commentary, despite the fact that he's one of the shrewdest and most successful speculators in the world. He does, however, represent the way the Davos people, Eurocrats, and the ruling classes in general think. But just because he's made a lot of money doesn't make him an expert in economics, any more than financial success is proof that Ted Turner, Bill Gates or Warren Buffet know anything about economics. They're all idiot savants, a bit like Dustin Hoffman's character in Rain Man. But that's another subject.
Soros writes: "The political will to create a common European treasury was absent in the first place, and since the time the euro was created the political cohesion of the European Union has greatly deteriorated." He's absolutely right about that and goes on to say that to create a common European treasury, the EU would have to have the power to tax. So, he's saying that the euro should be preserved, and that to do that, it should be backed by wealth extracted by force from the average person in Europe.
But that's the problem with every currency in the world today; they're not backed by a commodity, but only by the ability of government to steal from the people. And the euro doesn't even have that going for it.
L: And the power to tax is an essential, defining characteristic of the nation-state. It's the thing that empowers it to exist and separates it from voluntary organizations. To create that power in Europe would really be to turn the place into one single country. It wouldn't be long before they had a European army.
Doug: Exactly. Right now the Eurocrats in Brussels really only have the power to regulate, which is bad enough. But if the European Union had the power to tax, it would become an actual empire. Especially if they then created a European army - there's no telling what kind of mischief they'd get into.
On the bright side, they can't really afford an army. That's the bright side of all these governments being bankrupt: They spend way too much on welfare and debt service to afford much warfare... I guess that makes welfare and debt good things, in a perverse way.
L: [Laughs]
Doug: Anyway, Soros went on to observe: "The euro crisis could endanger the political cohesion of the European Union." That's true too, of course. The EU is a completely artificial union. The Swedes are very different from the Sicilians, and the Portuguese very different from the Austrians. These people have little in common besides a history of fighting with each other. Force them together into a phony union, and they'll become mutually resentful, the way the Germans and the Greeks now are. The EU was put together partly to avoid future wars, but it may turn out to be a war incubator. It makes no sense for there to be a European Union at all.
Incidentally, people think of these countries - Italy, France, Germany, and so on - as though they are fixtures in the cosmos, but they aren't. In their current forms, they're all newcomers on the stage of history.
L: You mean the gods didn't affix them to the celestial spheres, up there with the stars? I could have sworn Jupiter told me he did...
Doug: [Laughs] No. The average person doesn't realize that the country we know as Italy today was only created in 1861, a consolidation of many completely independent and very different entities that had been separate states since the collapse of the Roman empire. Germany was only unified in 1871, out of scores of principalities, dukedoms, and whatnot. Both unifications were very bad ideas. Even today, there are separatist movements in big Western European countries, like the Basques in Spain, or those in the United Kingdom who wish it weren't quite so united.
L: So what's the alternative?
Doug: Of course, the ideal would be for there to be seven billion little countries on the planet - each one a sovereign individual. But I'll take what I can get in the meantime, and would rather see smaller states competing for citizens as customers - although I don't really like that analogy, because states are not voluntary organizations, nor do they provide much in the way of useful services. Anyway, a more cohesive European Union is a step in the direction of Orwell's Oceania, which was in constant warfare with Eurasia and Eastasia. It's odd how the world is becoming much more like 1984 in some ways at the same time that the nation-state itself is collapsing.
What would have made sense is for Europe to have become a free-trade and -travel zone. No customs duties and no need for work permits or passports. A free-enterprise union - created simply by dropping barriers - would have facilitated all sorts of business and job creation. Instead, idiotically, the Europeans just created yet another layer of government in Brussels. Which is rather ironic in that Belgium is itself a non-country, created out of two very different societies - Flanders and Wallonia. Now there's a wannabe megagovernment bent on finding new ways to regulate enterprise out of existence. And if people like Soros are heeded, it will have the right to tax in addition, in order to give value to its essentially worthless currency.
All this would be a non-problem if they simply used gold - which is what, as I've long predicted, is happening, starting with the gold-for-oil trade between India and Iran.
People talk about the EU as being a way to avoid new wars in Europe. But they forget that in the 19th century, Europe had fewer wars than ever before or since. At that time, "mark, " "lira, " "franc, " and "pound" were all just names for specific amounts of gold. It worked very well; and to paraphrase Ludwig Von Mises: When goods cross borders freely, soldiers don't - or at least are less likely to.
All the gyrations and machinations these Eurocrats are desperately rushing into place to try to save the unnecessary and counterproductive euro are...
L: ...not just the wrong thing, but the exact opposite of the right thing.
Doug: [Laughs] Just so. Back to Soros. He has a prescription for preventing a meltdown, of course. He advises: "First, bank deposits have to be protected." In other words, to discourage people from bailing out of unsound banks and destabilizing a corrupt banking system, all bank deposits should be guaranteed. That's a catastrophic idea. It would further encourage all sorts of bad lending by incompetent bankers while sucking hundreds of billions of capital from productive parts of the economy. He also asserts that some banks in defaulting countries have to be kept functioning, in order to keep the economy from crashing entirely. That's another ridiculous idea, plundering the prudent and productive to pay for the profligate.
If banks were run according to sound banking principles, with a clear division between demand deposits and time deposits and no fractional reserve banking, we wouldn't have to worry about any of these issues.

But instead, Soros goes on to write that the European banking system should be recapitalized and put under EU supervision. I want to know how this recapitalization would be done - all those governments are bankrupt. All that Soros is suggesting is to make a bunch of national problems into one big continental problem. For all anyone knows, the Fed is creating trillions of dollars to give to the EU. The only thing that's really clear is that we're moving out of the eye of the hurricane and back into the storm. But it will be much, much fiercer than what we saw in 2008.
Soros also states that government bonds have to be protected from "contagion." Whatever that means, the implication is more central control and throwing more taxpayer money at the insoluble government problems. The bankrupt banks will have to lend the bankrupt governments money, so they can pay their bonds off, while at the same time the same bankrupt governments lend the bankrupt banks money, so they don't go under. It's all just a ridiculous shell game.
L: It all sounds like a call for creating more unbacked currency units. If their only answer is just to run the printing presses, it'll be Weimar hyperinflation all over again.
Doug: Yes. Soros' bottom line is: "There's no alternative but to give birth to the missing ingredient: A European treasury with the power to tax and borrow." This, he claims, is "the only way to forestall a possible financial meltdown and another great depression." Forestalling the depression is impossible. All that can be done is to make it less severe - by doing exactly the opposite of what Soros recommends.
L: And that would be...?
Doug: My view, as you well know, is that they shouldn't forestall the meltdown, but should let the market correct past mistakes and get on with building real economic growth for the future. Nietzsche was right when he said, "That which is about to fall deserves to be pushed." But it really doesn't matter what these fools do; we're in the early stages of the Greater Depression. It's going to have a life of its own.
Soros' solutions are counterproductive band-aids. But since he got to offer solutions, I'm going to offer some too. For starters, the national debts of all these countries should be defaulted on, including the United States. Those debts constitute an unethical mortgage without consent on the next two or three generations of people as yet unborn as a result of the excess consumption of their parents and grandparents. The government debt should also be defaulted on to punish the people stupid enough, or unethical enough, to lend these states the money they've used to do all the destructive things they do.

Second, central banks should be abolished and thereby fractional reserve banking as well. That would force banks to run on sound, classical terms, and depositors would be induced to seek out the most sound and secure banks.
Third, there shouldn't be national currencies. Commodities - with gold most likely the popular choice - would again be used as money.
Fourth, most financial regulations and taxes - especially income taxes - should be radically reduced or eliminated. At the same time, government spending should be cut even more radically. These governments, if their existence is to be tolerated at all, should be strictly limited to doing nothing more than protecting people from overt force and fraud.
L: Sounds good to me, but you know that's not gonna happen. So, tune in your guru-vision for a moment and tell us what you think is most likely to happen. Does Soros get his wish and we see a new European superstate emerge? Or does the EU disintegrate?
Doug: There's not a snowball's chance in hell that the EU will turn into a superstate. The chances are much, much better that it will fragment. If these countries have breakaway movements within them, how could they possibly succeed in peacefully joining together?
If you think about it, the Soviet Union was a sort of Eastern European Union, and it disintegrated. Yugoslavia also showed what happens to artificial European unions, as did Czechoslovakia. These are all straws that show which way the wind is blowing in Europe.
That's quite apart from the fact that trying to compact all of these different ethnicities, languages, religions, cultures, and so forth together into one giant nation-state is illogical, counterproductive, dangerous, and pointless.
L: So, how long do you give the EU before it breaks up? And the euro?
Doug: Well, as you know, one should never predict both an event and the time it will take place. But I've long said that, "While the US dollar is an 'IOU nothing, ' the euro is a 'who owes you nothing.'" So I think the euro will reach its intrinsic value long before the dollar does. The euro - in anything like its present form - will cease to exist within two to three years at the outside. If I had a lot of my wealth in euros, I would get it out ASAP. My favorite alternative for protecting wealth, of course, is the precious metals: gold and silver. If you want to speculate for gains on this trend, I think there will be a bubble in the mining stocks, many of which are cheap right now.
L: For new readers, Doug's notion of the intrinsic value of the euro, the dollar, or any unbacked "fiat" currency is zero. They are literally worthless and only useful as long as people imagine otherwise. So much for the euro, but what about the EU itself?
Doug: Centripetal force will eventually tear it apart, with the EU as a whole disintegrating long before its individual parts - France, Italy, Germany, the UK, etc. - fall apart.
L: How long is "eventually?" Can the EU itself last long after such a crushing setback as the collapse of the euro?
Doug: Probably not - they'll likely go in close succession. Europe is just in a world of trouble; the continent reminds me of that cruise ship that sank off the coast of Italy recently. They are dying financially, with all the debt bankrupting governments, businesses, and individuals. They are economically in a lot of trouble, with stifling regulations and taxes. They are demographically in a lot of trouble, with birth rates far below replacement in general, except among African and Muslim immigrants who are not integrating. Europe has long been a hotbed of religious, ethnic, and race wars - quite frankly I see the next one building up right now.
L: What about Eastern Europe? They have different problems - like endemic corruption and other Soviet legacies - but they tend to be very pragmatic and willing to work hard.
Doug: Yes, there's a dichotomy. The bad news is the Soviet legacy hanging over them, but the good news is that they've experienced naked socialism, and they know what it's really like. A lot of thinking people there are experiencing shock therapy and leaning much more towards free markets than people in the West. I'm definitely more optimistic about Eastern Europe than Western Europe. However, the general decline of Europe - which started with World War I - is going to continue. I only hope Europe just declines in relative terms, not absolute terms.
The fact of the matter is that I'm most optimistic about the Orient. That's where the action has been and is going to be. I'm also favorably inclined toward Latin America, which has huge problems but is, at least, mostly out of harm's way from the evolving Forever War.
L: Doug, you're on record as saying that China is in a bubble and that it's going to pop. How does that square with your being optimistic about the Orient? You can't be thinking Japan will take the lead again...
Doug: No, certainly not. I do think China is ripe for a fall, but it's a matter of the short vs. the long run. I'm very bearish on China in the short term, but after the current system washes out, I think it's going to be the place to be - or at least, that area. I think China is another country that has excellent chances of breaking up into five or more separate countries.

L: Wow... okay... More investment implications, besides getting out of the euro?
Doug: Buy gold and silver. Don't be fooled into thinking the dollar is strong just because the euro is weaker.
L: Very well; thank you for your thoughts.
Doug: My pleasure. I've got some other things on my mind, so we'll talk soon.
L: Looking forward to it. Have a great evening, Tatich.
Doug: You too, Lobo.
[Editor's Note: For new readers, "tatich" is Mayan for "big chief."]

Kno's Comments: That Is A Wise Man !!!

Welcome, check the rules and resources on page 1 if you havn't done so already.

Here's a very good website that will help you learn the forex market.

www.babypips.com

I'm not big on patterns but if it was a pennant, which is a classic continuation pattern, it's already broken and violated with the breakout to the downside.

Yes technical analysis does work...... but if a pattern is not easily visible and you are guessing and/or forcing yourself to see or find something, it's probably really not there.

There were two issues here today. First and most IMPORTANT Bernake has no more clothes on so the MARKET knew more Money Printing which means loss of value. (MONETARY INFLATION)

Gold Shot up and at the same time the Markets said RISK ON so they went out of the US Bonds into other Asset Classes including EUR/USD.

SO WHY DID THE US BOND YIELDS GO DOWN !!!

The 1% F U C K E D the 99% again...

How ?

The Bond Dealers starting buying the US Bonds with their HIDDEN PROFITS so that they could RESELL IT TO THE FED AT A PROFIT !!!

Does This help you understand ?

What Do You Think Of My Views on what happened today. Your independent opinion is valued...

PipKiller also your thoughts... Is Your Wife doing good ? My best wishes...

Well, I'm not sure about the pennant pattern, but price did not broke yet right? if till uk open it hoovers up 1.3060-80 area then price may resume up (IMO)

The announcement itself is a game-changer because of the way this game is going to change, Eric. I think you are going to see a very significant change amongst investors, corporations and companies with extra capital and people of the mainstream. You’re going to find gold being accepted as a hedge against what’s going on by entities, that up to now, you would think would be the last ones to be buying gold. How about someone like General Electric?



I used GE as an example because the principal of GE is a major advisor to the government. That would be the most unlikely thing (for GE to buy gold). But don’t count it out. You are going to see a lot of things this year you thought at one time impossible, becoming reality.



I’m going to predict you are going to see a new definition of investors in gold that, up to now, haven’t even been considered. Up to now there’s been the retail crowd and there’s been the international central bank crowd which have been the primary entities in gold....



Continue reading the Jim Sinclair interview below...





http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...es/tr-logo.png



“But you’ve never had mainstream investment, mainstream pensions, mainstream life insurance companies, mainstream health plans, which gather money looking to use a medium in order to maintain the buying power of what they’ve accomplished. This is a huge change, huge new demand, a total new definition.



You’re going to find out that public companies with significant resources, tech companies (as an example), are going to start to recognize that gold is an important part of protecting what they have. So I think you’ve identified a game-changer for corporate America and corporate global Western finance, to begin to look at gold as an alternative to the normal cash and debt instruments they would use to hedge themselves.”



Sinclair also added: “Last year was the year of discussion and confusion. I’ve labeled this year a year of action. Not necessarily a year of solution, but a year of action. Today you saw an action. The Fed’s swap line is an action. The IMF’s willingness to seek and to distribute loans, an action.



Actions have consequences. So this year is the year in which we are going to be experiencing the consequences. $1,700 to $2,100 gold is a conservative range. The reason why you got the breakout today is the light just went on. So any idea the accordion chop in gold we were in is still on is total nonsense.



Bear in mind that when gold breaks out above those ranges, it will do it based on a loss of confidence, primarily, in currencies. And it is the dollar, not the euro, that is the specie in danger as we are having this conversation.”



This interview with Sinclair is timely and important considering what the Fed did today. The KWN audio interview with Jim Sinclair will be available shortly and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE.



2012 by King World News. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. However, linking directly to the blog page is permitted and encouraged.



Eric King

KingWorldNews.com










Jim Sinclair - Mainstream Entities Will Now Enter Gold Market

You're on the right track GrizzNasty. But you're forcing the formation. You need to connect the lower highs as a trend line (which you have) and connect the higher lows as a trend line (which you didn't).

No worries, take a look here for an excellent resource on chart formations ... http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

Cheers!