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EUR/CHF

  • #2,441
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:10pm Jan 22, 2012 3:10pm
Quoting sidhujag
There is no credibility in the market anymore. The market will not let retailers win plain and simple. When aggregrate positions are short from retailers then the trigger will be pulled. If they do before hand, the market will reverse the intervention within hours.
The market did respect the peg though (until now) and also the small interventions after the big raise by the SNB were respected somehow. If we fall below 1.20 there will be tons of sell orders and lots of stop losses triggered, which could shoot the price down very fast, don't you think? It would be even harder for the SNB to intervene into this move. At least that's my opinion, but I'm still learning.
  • #2,442
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:27pm Jan 22, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting Schnitzel
The market did respect the peg though (until now) and also the small interventions after the big raise by the SNB were respected somehow. If we fall below 1.20 there will be tons of sell orders and lots of stop losses triggered, which could shoot the price down very fast, don't you think? It would be even harder for the SNB to intervene into this move. At least that's my opinion, but I'm still learning.
I think that open interest dropped because the intervention wiped out many retailers. There was no real chance to long because it didn't get to the protected levels. It went to it a few times at 1.2 but it fell below that time to take out the longs before going up again. At that time most ppl were still short because the past interventions didn't work up until then. Now ppl are holding long, big difference.
  • #2,443
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:33pm Jan 22, 2012 3:33pm
Quoting rokokdaun
hmm.. midterm.. the real question is when.. please someone decipher this text..
This means, where there is a political will, there will be find an instrument to reach 1.4000 "in the midterm". Did you read Mr. Jordanīs Curriculum Vitae? He is most probably the next president of the SNB...
  • #2,444
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:35pm Jan 22, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting Schnitzel
If we fall below 1.20 there will be tons of sell orders and lots of stop losses triggered, which could shoot the price down very fast, don't you think? It would be even harder for the SNB to intervene into this move. At least that's my opinion, but I'm still learning.
That's exactly how I'm thinking That's why I'm still long on this pair
  • #2,445
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:37pm Jan 22, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting tuvok
That's exactly how I'm thinking That's why I'm still long on this pair

hehe and this is exactly why 1.2 will fall through look at http://fxtrade.oanda.ca/analysis/historical-positions ppl holding longs.
  • #2,446
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:42pm Jan 22, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting sidhujag
hehe and this is exactly why 1.2 will fall through look at http://fxtrade.oanda.ca/analysis/historical-positions ppl holding longs.
oanda customers is not whole market.
maybe some 0.000001% or so,.....
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,447
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:42pm Jan 22, 2012 3:42pm
Quoting Schnitzel
SNB can't afford to let go price below 1.20 in my opinion. If they would like kill all the long traders and then kill all the short traders to clear the market, they would suffer a huge credibility loss. Same if they wouldn't do anything.
Totally agree
  • #2,448
  • Jan 22, 2012 3:45pm Jan 22, 2012 3:45pm
Quoting _BBKing_
oanda customers is not whole market.
maybe some 0.000001% or so,.....
Generalizing, most retailers think the same way because that's what PA intends for you to think. That's why big boys move the PA and retailers follow indicators instead of price action "at this moment".

It's just a big game, like any other game on PS3 or XBOX. Same shit different day. Only time retailers are on the right side in general is when there is intitutional failure a la lehman or greece collapse or something where the game breaks down. At that point spreads widen and retailers generally take profits way too early and go long feeding the selling frenzy.

I remember may 1 thru 6 2010 I picked the top but had a hard time following through. I cancelled my sell on DJIA puts I had $5k worth sitting there. My colleague was too chicken and I respected his trading skill so I cancelled as well even though all of my analysis called for a big top a the day earlier. So I had a meeting during the flash crash, came back and noticed that I would have been $80k richer if I just went the opposite of what everyone else was thinking!!!

DOW gapped down 300 points the next day and the following day another 1000 points down at the peak
  • #2,449
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:27pm Jan 22, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting sidhujag
I remember may 1 thru 6 2010 I picked the top but had a hard time following through. I cancelled my sell on DJIA puts I had $5k worth sitting there. My colleague was too chicken and I respected his trading skill so I cancelled as well even though all of my analysis called for a big top a the day earlier. So I had a meeting during the flash crash, came back and noticed that I would have been $80k richer if I just went the opposite of what everyone else was thinking!!!
The only conclusion is that you should always trade using your own thoughts and analisis. I had similar situation on EURUSD pair but in my case I lost about 70% of my balance because I entered the marked basing on analitics' recommendations
Anyway - regarding Oanda's historical data - since October 2011 almost everyone is long on EURCHF there but EURCHF is still going down... So I don't think Oanda users are authorative
I'm long on EURCHF because I trust in SNB credibility. I may be wrong of course but I still think there is much higher probability they will defend 1.2 peg right now than they will not
  • #2,450
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:40pm Jan 22, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting tuvok
The only conclusion is that you should always trade using your own thoughts and analisis. I had similar situation on EURUSD pair but in my case I lost about 70% of my balance because I entered the marked basing on analitics' recommendations
Anyway - regarding Oanda's historical data - since October 2011 almost everyone is long on EURCHF there but EURCHF is still going down... So I don't think Oanda users are authorative
I'm long on EURCHF because I trust in SNB credibility. I may be wrong of course but I still think there is much higher probability...
Yup I agree, maybe you misunderstood what I meant but when Oanda=retail is long PA goes short. This is because big players will eat SL's of little players which are easy. They have more information than the average retailer in terms of where the most stops are. During any intervention most of the time retailers are on the wrong side. We are also in different circumstances with a new head of SNB so we might actually see it in action, but I would doubt that the level will hold if it is done now.

Ask yourself what moves the market? Then consider how expensive it will be to push the market the "wrong way"..what are the chances of succeeding outside of causing massive inflation? When you win, the market maker or bank will lose, many banks > one central bank even with a printing press.
  • #2,451
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:51pm Jan 22, 2012 5:51pm
Well, in 2009 they succeed defending the 1.5 peg for 9 months straight before giving it up and it was tested 4-5 times.
Another thing is, how do you know what big players are doing?
  • #2,452
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:54pm Jan 22, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting Schnitzel
Well, in 2009 they succeed defending the 1.5 peg for 9 months straight before giving it up and it was tested 4-5 times.
Another thing is, how do you know what big players are doing?
u can know it if u in the market everyday
Bismillah
  • #2,453
  • Jan 22, 2012 6:05pm Jan 22, 2012 6:05pm
Big players are just as engaged in this trade as the rest of the mkt. Hedge funds are quite s.....d in this pair, many need it to go down just to get their $$$$$$$$$$ back, that is why it will not go down. The SNB pocketed those H Funds... who cares about small retailers.
  • #2,454
  • Jan 22, 2012 6:27pm Jan 22, 2012 6:27pm
Quoting sidhujag
Yup I agree, maybe you misunderstood what I meant but when Oanda=retail is long PA goes short. This is because big players will eat SL's of little players which are easy. They have more information than the average retailer in terms of where the most stops are. During any intervention most of the time retailers are on the wrong side. We are also in different circumstances with a new head of SNB so we might actually see it in action, but I would doubt that the level will hold if it is done now.

Ask yourself what moves the market? Then consider how...
Guys,

Forget the printing press fairy tail, all what the will do is type a few 0's onto their own balance sheet via the keyboard.
Printing notes especially CHF is far more complicated and more time consuming then just cranking on the press.
  • #2,455
  • Jan 22, 2012 7:35pm Jan 22, 2012 7:35pm
still sidelines but with down target,market might trying to test 1.20 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #2,456
  • Jan 22, 2012 9:23pm Jan 22, 2012 9:23pm
EUR/CHF stabilized above 1.2061 temporary low last week and turned sideway. More consolidation might be seen this week but risk of another fall remains as long as 1.2198 resistance holds
very nice, good price..!
  • #2,457
  • Jan 23, 2012 9:43am Jan 23, 2012 9:43am
The 4H chart is showing a falling wedge nearing the apex with positive RSI divergence, will be interesting to see what it does as we aproach the 1.20 level... it will be the first SNB deffence of the ceiling since imposed.
  • #2,458
  • Jan 23, 2012 9:51am Jan 23, 2012 9:51am
Quoting sidhujag
Generalizing, most retailers think the same way because that's what PA intends for you to think. That's why big boys move the PA and retailers follow indicators instead of price action "at this moment".

It's just a big game, like any other game on PS3 or XBOX. Same shit different day. Only time retailers are on the right side in general is when there is intitutional failure a la lehman or greece collapse or something where the game breaks down. At that point spreads widen and retailers generally take profits way too early and go long feeding...
yes i agree also at what "tuvok" said above.
there is no sense in following other's studys and ideas.
also if whole oanda, fxpro, alpari, fxcm and every retail broker have whole their customers going long eur chf, i will certainly not go long! but not because doing the opposite is better: because i will go long only when i will decide to do and my method will say ok, there is more things for long than for short.
whole retail brokers is nothing in forex!
also whole market is nothing in a single pair until whole market is trading other pairs..... eurchf actually imo, there is nobody trading it. only just some snb scalpers and some retailers like us!

governments, big funds etc,... already cashed many positions now waiting lined-up if this price will stay above 1.2000 or not.

just my idea!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,459
  • Jan 23, 2012 1:20pm Jan 23, 2012 1:20pm
I can see the EUR/CHF testing the SNB peg once the Euro has completed it correction that its currently in now. Once everyone gets long on the USD again and the market begins to shift.

This pair has raised a lot of fundamentals, rumors, etc, that have forced it in such a tight range, was anyone using ea's to scalp or grid strategies (if its even possible w/ the such spread) or are most of us just waiting on a surprise attack by the SNB?


Fat finger spikes are driving me crazy.
  • #2,460
  • Jan 23, 2012 2:32pm Jan 23, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting pipthief99
I can see the EUR/CHF testing the SNB peg once the Euro has completed it correction that its currently in now. Once everyone gets long on the USD again and the market begins to shift.

This pair has raised a lot of fundamentals, rumors, etc, that have forced it in such a tight range, was anyone using ea's to scalp or grid strategies (if its even possible w/ the such spread) or are most of us just waiting on a surprise attack by the SNB?


Fat finger spikes are driving me crazy.
Hi, I use 3 simply, robust very powerful ea(s) simultanously:

- first is scalping for 4-5-6 pips (long) It is good overnight, and when the range is small
- second is buying for 10-12-15 pips (long). It has more profit, but fewer times
- the second is buying 3-4-5 positions lower and lower, and close the highest in a good profit, when there is a spike/fat finger effect. When there is a bigger movement (200-300 or more pip) it close all position, and start again.

I think this 3 strategies is the best for this pair now if you want to long. You could profit when it is in small range, bigger range, and big spike or intervention. It is robot, so you don't need to see the chart for 24 hours and waiting for Godot.
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