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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #298,841
  • Jan 21, 2012 9:19pm Jan 21, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I must tell you I have come to realise that I actually am a bit of a conspiracy theorist despite my best attempts to deny it to myself on the past. The GU market is rigged, foretold in the past to rob the speculators and feed the rich. I think fundies are a distraction from the charts own story. But I am also a little bored at work right now so my imagination maybe playing tricks on me also
is u using a technical espect only...u cant be realize the movement of friday the 13th....one of my example...

another

the day lehman brothers colapse
&
may 2010
Bismillah
  • #298,842
  • Jan 21, 2012 9:39pm Jan 21, 2012 9:39pm
Quoting krunfx
hold long is ok.l..but
1.MPC MEETING
2.PREM GDP
3.FED RATE
4. EURO ZONE CRISIS (now maybeb concern about portugal)

NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY
  • #298,843
  • Jan 21, 2012 10:03pm Jan 21, 2012 10:03pm
Monday will reach 1.5688 then will go down to 1.5455 ....
  • #298,844
  • Jan 21, 2012 10:24pm Jan 21, 2012 10:24pm
Quoting ijan112
Monday will reach 1.5688 then will go down to 1.5455 ....
Why 5688? I have 50 fib at 57...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #298,845
  • Jan 21, 2012 10:28pm Jan 21, 2012 10:28pm
Quoting ijan112
Monday will reach 1.5688 then will go down to 1.5455 ....
Aaahhh, daily H and S
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #298,846
  • Jan 22, 2012 8:45am Jan 22, 2012 8:45am
11 of 10 euro news is red
not euphoria follower
  • #298,847
  • Jan 22, 2012 9:24am Jan 22, 2012 9:24am
Quoting iqyu5an
11 of 10 euro news is red
huhuuhu that means 90% of its fundamental espect is not ok??

should be make the euro weight soon
Bismillah
  • #298,848
  • Jan 22, 2012 10:03am Jan 22, 2012 10:03am
(gbp/usd..it's important we test 1.5425 before upward continuation
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #298,849
  • Jan 22, 2012 10:15am Jan 22, 2012 10:15am
Quoting donfriday
(gbp/usd..it's important we test 1.5425 before upward continuation
Ok , if so then suseptible further breakdown also , one crazy up may even followed by one crazy down from that zero ground !! will be watching then, just 5500 breaks & hold long time .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #298,850
  • Jan 22, 2012 12:58pm Jan 22, 2012 12:58pm
with repeated threat from sbn I see today also& people may be so confident about and so why kept test lot on gbpchf before now cheching eurchf also . no, my attitude & analysis not changed yet in both .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post5316296

the old gbpchf chart following .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #298,851
  • Jan 22, 2012 1:01pm Jan 22, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting donfriday
(gbp/usd..it's important we test 1.5425 before upward continuation
imo main to be tested is 5480-90
a move below this line is possible ok, but could seriously invalidate this uptrend.

weekly pivot 5480 (pip more pip less)
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #298,852
  • Jan 22, 2012 1:24pm Jan 22, 2012 1:24pm
Good afternoon fellow traders.

Here is my take - In the past 5 trading sessions we have moved up 300 pips or so. As you can see from my posted chart we are approaching the upper channel line of this downtrend.....stochs moved up very quick and are approaching overbought status while Macd has lagged and is turning up but is still below 0.......

The news out of Greece has not been good this weekend...NO DEAL. We are in an interesting zone right now. This has been a very nice bounce from the yellow line on my chart which is strong support.....I will be keeping my eye on price action to see if we get further follow through or a retrace back down.

I am flat currently as we are in the middle of something - let the intra day charts tell you which way price wants to move.

Enjoy my post and chart....comments welcome....as so are vouches!

Faller
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I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #298,853
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:18pm Jan 22, 2012 2:18pm
The violet daily 55ema which has kept this baby under wraps since November is in danger of being breached at the 38.2 retrace. We also have the green 60sma and orange 100sma and weekly 100sma hugging the trendline to get through. It will be a tough battle, but the Queens troops maybe up for it. After 3 solid bull candles I am waiting for some cock n bull story to come out on Monday to validate this rediculous bond investment in Europe recently (people just itching to throw their money away). We may also see a retrace to retest the breached 4 hr trendline. Aside from that, there may also be a currency super computer hidden deep in a treasury bunker somewhere that will just keep selling the dollar regardless of the news because that is what it is programmed to do, leaving us all thinking WTF!!! it will be an interesting week I think.
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #298,854
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:26pm Jan 22, 2012 2:26pm
Good day and good week to all!
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  • #298,855
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:32pm Jan 22, 2012 2:32pm
My early warning FX account shows Euro trading down at 1.2863 down 70 pips from Friday.....and GBP is 1.5530 down 40 pips.

Look at my post above......might make sense now.

Cheers.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #298,856
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:35pm Jan 22, 2012 2:35pm
Looking for a breakthrough of the daily 55ema which is flat, retrace off the daily 60sma to retest the daily 55ema/38.2 retrace area, pushing through to the weekly 100sma which is flat and above the TL, at which point we could go nuts north. Just some thoughts and light expression before work on a Monday. I hope Sunday was a good one for you all
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #298,857
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:42pm Jan 22, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting Faller
My early warning FX account shows Euro trading down at 1.2863 down 70 pips from Friday.....and GBP is 1.5530 down 40 pips.

Look at my post above......might make sense now.

Cheers.
Interesting Faller, I see a potential TL between the last swing low and 2 swing lows before that and just above our current position and 2 swing highs before that. Will be in confluence with the 38.2 retrace and daily 55ema also. Thx dude
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #298,858
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:47pm Jan 22, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Interesting Faller, I see a potential TL between the last swing low and 2 swing lows before that and just above our current position and 2 swing highs before that. Will be in confluence with the 38.2 retrace and daily 55ema also. Thx dude

what time frame are you taking that from?

thanks.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #298,859
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:51pm Jan 22, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting Faller
what time frame are you taking that from?

thanks.
Ummm, daily I'm pretty sure it was, that was the screen I was looking the most at and posted just before I left for work.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #298,860
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:55pm Jan 22, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting Faller
Good afternoon fellow traders.

The news out of Greece has not been good this weekend...NO DEAL. We are in an interesting zone right now. This has been a very nice bounce from the yellow line on my chart which is strong support.....I will be keeping my eye on price action to see if we get further follow through or a retrace back down.

Faller
According to the Wall Street Journal, the shorts were going up in EU and GU last week. See link below:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=337842

Obviously, the market makers who sold those contracts are doing their best to push the prices up. Otherwise they will end up losing a lot of money on those options. This is I think partly the reason the prices went north last week. A lot of people were confounded with the PA last week as most retail traders expected the EU to drop (and GU) because of those S&P downgrades on Friday,13th.

Also it was really noticeable that the London sessions last week was somewhat dull and all the actions happened during the NY sessions. However, we do not know what the traders/investors in other world regions think. They may see this as a massive buying opportunity.

As for the economic fundamentals, there is no option but for the eurozone countries to engineer a lower exchange rate in the short term to regain their competitiveness. However, politicos' egos may prevent this. UK is doing relatively better than the eurozone if recent data is anything to go by. According to the Economist's purchasing power parity calculations (the big mac index), the Euro is overvalued by about 9% and the GBP is undervalued by about 8%. See link below:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/big-mac-index

At the end of the day, in the long term the exchange rates go where the fundamentals point to. So what am I planning to do next week? My plan is to short EG and cautiously buy the GU dips.

Here is an EG chart (H4):


Good luck everyone.
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