DislikedIF, Greece is downgraded, it would be the catylist to start the waterfall. and 4800 would be my long term profit for half my load. I see a huge selloff soon...I can just feel it.Ignored
If you think about it for a minute, the market makers must be sitting on heavy unrealised losses at the moment with Euro as there are more short EU contracts than long EU ones (same with GU). Options is a zero sum game. i-e if someone is winning then someone else is losing an equal amount.
It is therefore foolish for retail investors/traders to think that they are going to make huge profits at the expense of the big boys. I have no doubts whatsoever that they will try to push the prices back up first to liquidate a lot of short positions or engineer something like higher margin requirements or something even more crafty.
It is therefore plausible to imagine that first we will see a slow rebound (as we were possibly witnessing recently) and the crash will follow thereafter. The movement downwards will be quick and violent.
Conventional wisdom and economics suggest that a sizeable devaluation of the Euro will do a lot of good to Eurozone countries to increase their exports competitiveness rather than the austerity measures which are affecting the poor proportionately more than the rich. In the past, Italy successfully devalued Lira (before Euro times) to increase its exports so it is not a new concept. A cheaper Euro is also very good for German exporters.
My 2 cents worth of course.
G/L
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