Attachments: EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF

#2,361
Jan 18, 2012 11:55am Jan 18, 2012 11:55am

Mosq
| Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Trader | 87 Posts

Quoting dimitri

Disliked

If there is a promise to defend 1.20 and SNB not in action then the market must test it. It is question only for couple of days we see 1.20. I wonder how big that defending will be...

Ignored

For me more important is when (which level) not how big

I 'm just curious what tactic they have....

#2,362
Jan 18, 2012 12:10pm Jan 18, 2012 12:10pm

dennis_ger
| Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 65 Posts

Quoting LarryDarrell

Disliked

Out of my long from friday @1,2068, was b/e... pity. Maybe a chance to reload on longs (if you believe in SNB defending...)

The reaction to the fat finger was interesting: there are loads of sellers above 1,21. People seem to doubt the 'unlimited ressources' the SNB promised...

Ignored

Hmmm. Maybe it was a test conducted by the SNB to get an impression what the "order books" look like? But then again i doubt it that the SNB would have to conduct such a test. I think they have a broad knowledge of luring sums in the market.

#2,363
Jan 18, 2012 1:51pm Jan 18, 2012 1:51pm

Schnitzel
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: be smart, look at the chart | 61 Posts

I think the SNB will defend their 1.2 floor as they did with the 1.5 floor in 2009. But i also think they will not rise the floor to 1.25 or 1.3 in near future, maybe in a few months if it is necessary. Also i think they will wait until price reaches 1.2010-1.2030 before reacting. If EUR/CHF keeps testing 1.20 after the defend, they might raise the floor or push it some more for a few times.

#2,364
Jan 18, 2012 2:36pm Jan 18, 2012 2:36pm

Blue.Trader
| Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 93 Posts

Quoting Schnitzel

Disliked

I think the SNB will defend their 1.2 floor as they did with the 1.5 floor in 2009. But i also think they will not rise the floor to 1.25 or 1.3 in near future, maybe in a few months if it is necessary. Also i think they will wait until price reaches 1.2010-1.2030 before reacting. If EUR/CHF keeps testing 1.20 after the defend, they might raise the floor or push it some more for a few times.

Ignored

Did SNB warn they wanna leave that peg before it breached the 1.5? I wanna know is there any possibility that SNB doesn't react to this floor?
Did anybody trade EUR/CHF in that time and let us know what happened in that time?

#2,365
Jan 18, 2012 3:25pm Jan 18, 2012 3:25pm

hornsant
| Joined May 2011 | Status: Trader | 228 Posts

Quoting Blue.Trader

Disliked

Did SNB warn they wanna leave that peg before it breached the 1.5? I wanna know is there any possibility that SNB doesn't react to this floor?
Did anybody trade EUR/CHF in that time and let us know what happened in that time?

Ignored

It droped dead

#2,366
Jan 18, 2012 3:52pm Jan 18, 2012 3:52pm

Simon73
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 234 Posts

Quoting Blue.Trader

Disliked

Did SNB warn they wanna leave that peg before it breached the 1.5? I wanna know is there any possibility that SNB doesn't react to this floor?
Did anybody trade EUR/CHF in that time and let us know what happened in that time?

Ignored

The SNB warned before the 1.5 peg breached in 2009 December.

Every meeting in 2009 was the message: "we will defend the franc from every attack" (i dont know the exact senctence)

But in December SNB meeting, they changed the language: "we will defend the franc from every aggressiv attack". It was only one word difference. Two days later, the peg has broken.

In 2010, when SNB give up the intervention, they said it before.

So I think SNB is a credible Bank. They will defend the peg. If not, we will know it before.

#2,367
Jan 18, 2012 3:57pm Jan 18, 2012 3:57pm

Schnitzel
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: be smart, look at the chart | 61 Posts

Thanks, I also tried to find some information about that. I only saw they could defend the peg for over 9 months and had to defend it at least 4 or 5 times.

#2,368
Jan 18, 2012 4:01pm Jan 18, 2012 4:01pm

Pipstrumpf
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 408 Posts

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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I think the SNB has it pretty much on their side.
35 years worth of data my friends, and I'm sure if someone here could be bothered evrey single spike on the extremes of this channel could be matched with a historic events.
Relax and sit back, enjoy the ride, the SNB has nothing to lose. They will intervene 1.20, 1.19, 1.18 whatever, just look at this channel.

#2,369
Jan 18, 2012 4:11pm Jan 18, 2012 4:11pm

Doc'
| Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Trader | 312 Posts

Quoting Pipstrumpf

Disliked

Attachment

I think the SNB has it pretty much on their side.
35 years worth of data my friends, and I'm sure if someone here could be bothered evrey single spike on the extremes of this channel could be matched with a historic events.
Relax and sit back, enjoy the ride, the SNB has nothing to lose. They will intervene 1.20, 1.19, 1.18 whatever, just look at this channel.

Ignored

Nice LT view

Thank's for sharing

#2,370
Jan 19, 2012 2:21am Jan 19, 2012 2:21am

Blue.Trader
| Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 93 Posts

Quoting Simon73

Disliked

The SNB warned before the 1.5 peg breached in 2009 December.

Every meeting in 2009 was the message: "we will defend the franc from every attack" (i dont know the exact senctence)

But in December SNB meeting, they changed the language: "we will defend the franc from every aggressiv attack". It was only one word difference. Two days later, the peg has broken.

In 2010, when SNB give up the intervention, they said it before.

So I think SNB is a credible Bank. They will defend the peg. If not, we will know it before.

Ignored

Thanks Simon. So, maybe even tomorrow they change their word and say we no longer keep this peg! as easy as this!

#2,371
Jan 19, 2012 2:35am Jan 19, 2012 2:35am

multi888
| Commercial User | Joined Aug 2011 | 701 Posts

Quoting Blue.Trader

Disliked

Thanks Simon. So, maybe even tomorrow they change their word and say we no longer keep this peg! as easy as this!

Ignored

Who knows...intervention might happen today without you knowing it.

#2,372
Jan 19, 2012 3:06am Jan 19, 2012 3:06am

tuvok
| Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 28 Posts

Quoting Blue.Trader

Disliked

Thanks Simon. So, maybe even tomorrow they change their word and say we no longer keep this peg! as easy as this!

Ignored

I doubt in leaving the peg so quickly. It was introduced only 4 months ago and current vice president of SNB (Jordan) was supporting it strongly

#2,373
Jan 19, 2012 3:38am Jan 19, 2012 3:38am

dennis_ger
| Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 65 Posts

It seems to me that some folks here totally forget why the SNB installed the peg in the first place. This whole peg-story is NOT about speculation. It is about the swiss economy. An the economy is suffering from a overvalued franc.

The SNB giving up the peg is a completely unrealistic scenario. I think that EUR/CHF would nearly instantly move to parity, switzerland would develop a nice little deflation paired with a descending economic growth. An all that just becaus the franc is seen as a "safe harbor" by people that are afraid that the Euro could diminish from one day to another.

So...i don't knwo when and how the SNB will move or if it moves at all. But i am absolutely sure about the fact that EUR/CHF will not move to a level significant under 1.20.

Again: The reasons have got nothing to do with speculation. This is about the "real thing": the economy.

#2,374
Jan 19, 2012 3:44am Jan 19, 2012 3:44am