DislikedIt reminds me how Japan did their last intervention. They waited till most of the traders give up hope and close their longs, and then they intervened heavily. Kind of make sense. If they intervene at this moment, everyone expects that, and then when say peg is raised, everyone takes their profits and make it harder from a day one to hold new peg.
If you study the charts from September, they had a chance to peg the currency to 1.20 5 days earlier, when actually price was around 1.195, but they didn't - why? Because everyone was long? Then price...Ignored
Indeed, this is an interesting way to look at it. However, I think that this time around things are a bit different from what they were back in September. Namely, the SNB's credibility now hangs in the balance. Since September, they have been using very strong language indicating that they will defend the peg, so I think it would really eat away at their credibility if they fail to do that when the market finally tests them.
At the most basic level, this is a fight between the SNB and the speculators who want a higher franc. Thus, another way to look at it is that the SNB will not let these speculators close their sell orders from all the way up at 1.24xx profitably under 1.2 thus providing them with more ammunition to fight again should the peg be re-established or raised.
So with that being said, and to achieve the best possible results for the time being, I think the SNB should just defend the peg and let the market fluctuate as it has since September.