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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #297,941
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:33am Jan 14, 2012 10:33am
Quoting nAVIN2007
oh well still have a chance, very slim if this goes i need exit plan, seems crazy euro is in this kind of trouble..
mate,

this is not a post against you, it is a clarification of reality.

heroics is not trading. and people shouldn't vouch folly. this is sending a completely wrong message.

you fucked up and got yourself into a shitty spot here. that's all there is to it.

painting it up as something great sends the wrong message to new traders.

even if this works out, it was incredibly wasteful. you tied up your principle for months on a bad bet and had to get a day job to cover off.

all the good trades you could have taken were lost because you held too long.

this is the truth, so even if price eventually turns, it isn't an example of what to do.

I think you're an honest person, so I'm not criticizing your choice, but the cheerleaders are completely off base.
  • #297,942
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:54am Jan 14, 2012 10:54am
Quoting Fudomyo
mate,

this is not a post against you, it is a clarification of reality.

heroics is not trading. and people shouldn't vouch folly. this is sending a completely wrong message.

you fucked up and got yourself into a shitty spot here. that's all there is to it.

painting it up as something great sends the wrong message to new traders.

even if this works out, it was incredibly wasteful. you tied up your principle for months on a bad bet and had to get a day job to cover off.

all the good trades you could have taken were lost because you held too...

I agree with u, nobody should ever vouch me for this..i was just pointing out a mistake i made..i believe in turning it into positive, if one person read my post and prevents themselves doing same thing, then something good comes from it..

that was the intention behind why i wrote what i did..i still believe thou its a trade, although i perhaps over estimate my ability..but i stand by my trade completely..perhaps regret it completely but the market will have to prove me wrong

its just we are very close to this point
  • #297,943
  • Edited 11:06am Jan 14, 2012 10:55am | Edited 11:06am
I know your thinking, so you don't need to defend it. It's all personal choice. All I am saying is how it's perceived.

I know you are good people. This isn't a trade. Be honest about that. It ducked under 4 or 5 times from when it was a trade and became a hold.

I see GU going up. But how strong is your wallet?

You know, it is always the same story. if you think 1500 is your limit, it will turn at 1490.

It's always outside of our hold territory when we get into trouble. That's the rub.
  • #297,944
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:03am Jan 14, 2012 11:03am
Quoting Fudomyo
I know your thinking, so you don't need to defend it. It's all personal choice. All I am saying is how it's perceived.

I know you are good people.

I see GU going up. But how strong is your wallet?

You know, it is always the same story. if you think 1500 is your limit, it will turn at 1490.

it's always outside of the hold territory. That's the rub.
That's the problem retailers thinking they can change the market. Even big institutions get screwed with this kindve thinking and yet retailers engage in it.
  • #297,945
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:07am Jan 14, 2012 11:07am
Quoting Fudomyo
I know your thinking, so you don't need to defend it. It's all personal choice. All I am saying is how it's perceived.

I know you are good people. This isn't a trade. Be honest about that. It ducked under 4 or 5 times from when it was a trade and became a hold.

I see GU going up. But how strong is your wallet?

You know, it is always the same story. if you think 1500 is your limit, it will turn at 1490.

It's always outside of our hold territory when we get into trouble. That's the rub.
im not at all emotional about it..u will see if it turns my way..it is at this point i will prove it..
i plan was always to find work and trade longer term..i did my analysis of a 16 month chart!!
  • #297,946
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:08am Jan 14, 2012 11:08am
Quoting nAVIN2007
im not at all emotional about it..u will see if it turns my way..it is at this point i will prove it..
Just read your on a big loss, how much have you lost/how many pips in the negatory are you since you opened the long position? PM me if you want.
  • #297,947
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:09am Jan 14, 2012 11:09am
Quoting Deusomega
That's the problem retailers thinking they can change the market. Even big institutions get screwed with this kindve thinking and yet retailers engage in it.
yes.

MF Global is a beacon for this.

NEVER get ahead of yourself in this game. It is way too easy, then they have you by the balls.

every time.
  • #297,948
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:11am Jan 14, 2012 11:11am
Quoting GDR3k
Just read your on a big loss, how much have you lost/how many pips in the negatory are you since you opened the long position? PM me if you want.

lets not get into this..if im wrong i will cut the trade, i have no problem taking a hit..(i think)

honestly..i trade on my belief and nobody can influence my thought and decision once trade in progress..i have a stop loss and target
  • #297,949
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:12am Jan 14, 2012 11:12am
Quoting nAVIN2007
im not at all emotional about it..u will see if it turns my way..it is at this point i will prove it..
i plan was always to find work and trade longer term..i did my analysis of a 16 month chart!!
this is an emotional response.

as soon as you need to prove something. as soon as you start using exclamation points to describe your process, you are emotionally involved.
  • #297,950
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:15am Jan 14, 2012 11:15am
Quoting nAVIN2007
lets not get into this..if im wrong i will cut the trade, i have no problem taking a hit..(i think)

honestly..i trade on my belief and nobody can influence my thought and decision once trade in progress..i have a stop loss and target
Fair enough haha I was only asking because I'm curious, that is all, not having a dig in any way.
  • #297,951
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:16am Jan 14, 2012 11:16am
Quoting Fudomyo
this is an emotional response.

as soon as you need to prove something. as soon as you start using exclamation points to describe your process, you are emotionally involved.

no I agree..so far the trade is in negative territory so theres no control that can be seen, u could say i almost "wishing it will go up" if it goes up..i will hold it and build..its at this point it will be evident im in control not the other way around...

that all i meant..i just need to see 1.65 to stand a chance..so this is the point where i will study PA..if it gets there
  • #297,952
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:26am Jan 14, 2012 11:26am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I agree with u, nobody should ever vouch me for this..i was just pointing out a mistake i made..i believe in turning it into positive, if one person read my post and prevents themselves doing same thing, then something good comes from it..

that was the intention behind why i wrote what i did..i still believe thou its a trade, although i perhaps over estimate my ability..but i stand by my trade completely..perhaps regret it completely but the market will have to prove me wrong

its just we are very close to this point
Got to do it your own way IMO, if you lose you then you have yourself to blame, follow anything other than your own thoughts then you will blame everyone else. I too have 3 buy trades on right now up at around 1.5480 which now seem problematic. I thought hard about exiting with an 80 pip loss friday morning GMT but for some reason that voice inside me said no. (i think its a guy thing struggling to admit a loss) instead i made an equal sell trade making me stuck with the loss of 80 pips (x 3 for each trade).

This way i haven't yet lost the trade but claimed a status quo. Now im hoping for a swing down below 1.520 and back up high enough to use that profit no negate the probable loss on the exit of the buy trades.

My strategy is fairly simple, sell high and buy low. If i get it wrong and i see market moving away from me i place equal opposite orders and wait for more direction.

My risk is when the market moves in one direction finds short term support then moves in the same direction again (and again after i closed the trade hoping for a return).

Generally i double my money every month or so and im very happy. I have NEVER closed a trade in a loss and im NEVER overly greedy. I think Nav knows better than me what he is doing and would think he i best to stick to his style and assume when he talks about it people understand the subjective nature of strategy talk.

Down then up next week - fingers crossed....
Money never sleeps...
  • #297,953
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:27am Jan 14, 2012 11:27am
Quoting nAVIN2007
no I agree..so far the trade is in negative territory so theres no control that can be seen, u could say i almost "wishing it will go up" if it goes up..i will hold it and build..its at this point it will be evident im in control not the other way around...

that all i meant..i just need to see 1.65 to stand a chance..so this is the point where i will study PA..if it gets there
ok,

what I would do is practice damage control.

how can you get out without losing the entire pot?

we can fade into profit or fade our losses.

shit happens. the thing is freeing up capital to do right.

holding for hope is the most extreme and least logical choice.

I would have started bracketing a while back.
  • #297,954
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:29am Jan 14, 2012 11:29am
From a technical perspective looking at the weekly chart...a break lower this week saw a LL just below the last significant LL of 5270 on this t/f but price closed bullishly on the 4hr and below on Friday having bounced off the 5234 weekly Lo. This Weekly t/f is showing some bearish signs therefore but probably still looks a little mixed at the moment, admittedly though more bearish leaning than bullish ?

http://i39.tinypic.com/indhew.jpg

Looking at the Daily, some evidence of buyers in the vicinity at the lows re Thursday and Friday's daily cndle closes and this is reflected on the 4hr/1hr t/f's...it's messy on this t/f re fractal swings but a general (overall price action-peak/valley analysis) downtrend is in evidence.

http://i43.tinypic.com/24niczl.jpg

G/L
ex member
  • #297,955
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:35am Jan 14, 2012 11:35am
Quoting inpatient
Got to do it your own way IMO, if you lose you then you have yourself to blame, follow anything other than your own thoughts then you will blame everyone else. I too have 3 buy trades on right now up at around 1.5480 which now seem problematic. I thought hard about exiting with an 80 pip loss friday morning GMT but for some reason that voice inside me said no. (i think its a guy thing struggling to admit a loss) instead i made an equal sell trade making me stuck with the loss of 80 pips (x 3 for each trade).

This way i haven't yet lost the trade...
when u get to a stage where u have studied hard at trading and know so much abt technicals (3 year i devoted to learning technicals) and u still lose money..u realise its not about the chart so much

its about you!! have a target set yur parameters and let it do its thing..dont allow fear in your mind..it will drive u out of the trade..if yur wrong, your wrong accept it..theres more to life than money ..seriously

so long as yur not over leveraged u have good chance..but this should mean nothing to u..what u think is all that matters
  • #297,956
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:39am Jan 14, 2012 11:39am
Quoting Fudomyo
ok,

what I would do is practice damage control.

how can you get out without losing the entire pot?

we can fade into profit or fade our losses.

shit happens. the thing is freeing up capital to do right.

holding for hope is the most extreme and least logical choice.

I would have started bracketing a while back.
i have a plan for it already...just need market to make a move
  • #297,957
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:42am Jan 14, 2012 11:42am
So some evidence of buyers into Friday's close off the 5234 Lo.

Below Friday's closing price I see the following potential rbs/support factors. Please be aware that is not to say that I think all of them have a high probability of see-ing demand coming in at those levels (howsoever permanently or temporarily) - just that in respect of what my own methodology deems a 'main' potential support factors - this is what is present below Friday's closing price.

5305-5299 prev minor 1hr sw hi zone
5283-77 prev 1hr sw lo zone
5260-34 prev 4hr/1hr sw lo zone (Fri and last week's Lo)
5228 Monday's Daily S1 @/around
5198 Weekly S1 @/around
5189 61.8% 4225-6746
[ 5150-20 ascending Monthly/Weekly t/f trend line on this daily candle
[ 5148 Monthly S2 @/around
[ 5144 Monday's Daily S2
5083 Weekly S2 @/around
5034-4945 prev weekly sw lo zone incl 5017 Weekly R3 @/around and 4970 = Monday's Daily S3 @/around
4935 Monthly S3 @/around
4819/17 76.4% 4225-6746 / Weekly S3 @/around
4796 Monday's Daily S4
4593 85.4% 4225-6746
4551 Weekly S4 @/around

G/L
ex member
  • #297,958
  • Jan 14, 2012 11:48am Jan 14, 2012 11:48am
Quoting bguguen
Have a good weekend to you too, couple things to verify... Look at my profile and you can see i've also traded for over 3+years
And yea interesting thing about ur theory that my trade number at 7xxxx is a demo account... Well unfortunately for you, it doesnt work that way... It varies between brokers but for mine, trade ids are unique soo just because my teade shoing an id of 7xxxxx doesnt mean its demo, it just so mean i placed the 7xxxxth trade, amd that would mean there are other people placing trades using the same broker as i do....
Also...
Thank you friend for this
  • #297,959
  • Jan 14, 2012 12:01pm Jan 14, 2012 12:01pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
i have a plan for it already...just need market to make a move
ok.

I'm happy someone is so sure.

I am not.

I take my profits right now in small parcels because a lot can go terribly wrong with the amount of uncertainty in the markets.

before we had an even fight between bulls and bears.

now we have artificial rises and a scramble to divest.

until there's actually a real bottom and a push up from it, we are playing in shark infested waters.


these are the worst conditions for retailers, so it's not a time for big balls.
  • #297,960
  • Jan 14, 2012 12:07pm Jan 14, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting Fudomyo
ok.

I'm happy someone is so sure.

I am not.

I take my profits right now in small parcels because a lot can go terribly wrong with the amount of uncertainty in the markets.

before we had an even fight between bulls and bears.

now we have artificial rises and a scramble to divest.

until there's actually a real bottom and a push up from it, we are playing in shark infested waters.

these are the worst conditions for retailers. so it's not a time for big balls.
its not about big balls..whats so hard about placing a trade and sticking to it..thats all im doing..everything thats happening is in your head..

i have been in a trade 2 months..i feel like i just entered it, not because im brave but because i fell nothing..think about that..its all in the head..big balls have nothing to do with it..unless u feel, big balls are needed to trade

and im not sure but i made a decision and am sticking to it..fear will be the only reason i stop it
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