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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #297,921
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:15pm Jan 13, 2012 9:15pm
Quoting sidhujag
GBPUSD finished US session BULLISH, probably will carry over monday, look for a short EURGBP trade for best results.

SM money buying GBP? It should be since GBP is in much better shape than most other countires if shit hits the fan.

Anycase I'm holding off from buying incase the downgrade pushes it lower next London.
Actually UK is worse than France of Germany as a country a lone... thats why i wont be surprised next week we'll see a retrace on EU but GBP will find it difficult...
EuroZone members are pointing fingers are UK asking why arent the brits downgraded when the fact is... by now brits should've been downgraded same as France...
Personally I'd Watch out and yes GBPUSD did not close bullish, it did recover however but thats only the kneejerk effect of some Large orders filled below 5270...
so im still cautious if i were to long...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,922
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:51pm Jan 13, 2012 9:51pm
Large traders held a net $24.8 billion or 155,195 contracts in bets that the euro will continue to weaken, up 9% from the prior week.

Negative bets against the British pound rose by 11% to $3.5 billion, 35,853 contracts.


CFTC
eFXnews
.
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  • #297,923
  • Jan 13, 2012 9:51pm Jan 13, 2012 9:51pm
The pessimistic euro bets corresponded with a 10% increase in bets that the dollar will appreciate, a net total of $17 billion.

Investors were more optimistic about the Australian dollar, boosting their bets by 14%, to a net $5.5 billion.
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  • #297,924
  • Edited Jan 14, 2012 1:39am Jan 13, 2012 11:08pm | Edited Jan 14, 2012 1:39am
Morning , hope not of yesterday news , seen today morning , Standar & Poor's downgrade ez left & right , Germany spare somehow . ok just 2nd week of the year 2012 , lots of time to do more & Germany & all in reccession next may come up.

market doing joy ride in bouncing again & again & always exaggerated /beyond limit levels preserving natural waves ,last time also I see now( slept last night with puter open ) ,whenever a chance & with down with lots of pain & unwillingliness & limited so far , so not yet panic due lots of sr below perhaps . should ride down with joy also in time with their panic back . chart is not the matter it can't next .
waiting more for .

No analysing any today , just usdx my big big bull candle in the shows , posted many many times here actually last one also .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post5294773

test trades in gbpchf shades some profit & me allowed to as small lot & actually no time see the chart as was approachin a support . anyway everything back the back before chf want the intervention against if the power left!!
usdjpy long lost some & positive again , ok . they needed not much action yet . chf if tried & not believe sustainable .

chart gbpchf .
people say Gold to continue up , and though it made a disaster true last days breaking over 1641.15 but still medium to moderate fall likely if even intention up above the top & highs continue , even breaks below the bottom towards 1034 as 1012 special disaster still in my favour & for quite long time before also , contrary big shots though .
so big failure may be next audusd , very crazy up while was a clearest move to the down great before amost all 3 ladies watched . will take speciall watch there with gold next weeks & for the year huge tanking goals .so if flat this au lady will be my favourite one to deal with .


fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #297,925
  • Jan 14, 2012 3:23am Jan 14, 2012 3:23am
Quoting bguguen
Have a good weekend to you too, couple things to verify... Look at my profile and you can see i've also traded for over 3+years
And yea interesting thing about ur theory that my trade number at 7xxxx is a demo account... Well unfortunately for you, it doesnt work that way... It varies between brokers but for mine, trade ids are unique soo just because my teade shoing an id of 7xxxxx doesnt mean its demo, it just so mean i placed the 7xxxxth trade, amd that would mean there are other people placing trades using the same broker as i do....
Also as...
good morning,
yes about position id was just asking, i noticed mine id is 8 numbers and yours is 7.. so different brokers different count, not more!

what i could say is that when price goes near strong main levels there is always a kind of fight-challenge also in the thread, since we all have different ideas. however i don't think some one was talking directly to you about saying "where is the sell the rally" etc.... things!
ok i could be wrong, but we should not take it so much as personal! i did same things taking too much personal when you re-called about the 10pips far from 5270 etc.
i must admit that this market gives me heavy stress, and hard sometimes to be patient!

my apologyze if i sounded against you!
i had very similar position than yours, i simply closed earlier and now im looking for a buy. too early as you can see but was not completely out of cards.
i went heavy long below 5270 just remembering our talk about the 5270 stops: i found what you said very interesting and noticed market unbale to get also the 5230-40 adding we were going end of the day! i got more money in that trade than in the shorts coming from 54 area!
just to let you know what i mean when i go angry when people fight in here!!
we could all together read market better even more than how market could read himself!

lets keep the great work! we are all here to do it better
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #297,926
  • Jan 14, 2012 3:30am Jan 14, 2012 3:30am
Quoting fontu
Morning , hope not of yesterday news , seen today morning , Standar & Poor's downgrade ez left & right , Germany spare somehow . ok just 2nd week of the year 2012 , lots of time to do more & Germany & all in reccession next may come up.

market doing joy ride in bouncing again & again & always exaggerated /beyond limit levels preserving natural waves ,last time also I see now( slept last night with puter open ) ,whenever a chance & with down with lots of pain & unwillingliness & limited so far , so not yet panic due lots of sr below perhaps . should...
morning fontu,
what a crazy bullflag i see in USDX! if goes confirmed, that thing is near a fly!

about aud usd i noticed a kind of rising wedge in h1-h4 and it went re-testing after breaking before day ends. could be lined-up with your thought about gold to fail heavy: 1640 still there and preice still not closing strong above it so actually IMO, reversed H&S not confirmed at all!

90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #297,927
  • Jan 14, 2012 4:18am Jan 14, 2012 4:18am
Quoting bguguen
1. Because money is irrelevant.. What is relevant is the AMOUNT of pips made... If everybody were to compete, looking at money value for performance is not a fair competition, Pips is
2. Because i dont like to brag about the lots i trade, but if you pay attention, i did sort of hinted multiple time over the last week the lot size i trade.
3. Its been a practice, when i show my account or position, i do not show size nor the money value


If you really want it to be fair comparing everybody else the only thing you can use is % gain or loss


you can't use pips ,if I'm a scalper and make 20 pips a day using a small stop my lots can be larger,but if I'm say a position trader and make 200 pips a day with a big stop my lot won't be as big


So from your point the scalper only makes a measly 20 pips compared to 200 But what if they make the same amount of % gain .so counting pips is useless and is really only for bad traders to make themselves feel good
  • #297,928
  • Jan 14, 2012 4:28am Jan 14, 2012 4:28am
Quoting markmc27
If you really want it to be fair comparing everybody else the only thing you can use is % gain or loss


you can't use pips ,if I'm a scalper and make 20 pips a day using a small stop my lots can be larger,but if I'm say a position trader and make 200 pips a day with a big stop my lot won't be as big


So from your point the scalper only makes a measly 20 pips compared to 200 But what if they make the same amount of % gain .so counting pips is useless and is really only for bad traders to make themselves feel good
the only thing that matters is % gain/loss in 1 year..trading is such a thing where u can make very good trades but all it takes is 1 bad one to destroy everything..i am guilty of this..for one year i did the same thing every trade..i then thought i will try something different..now the result is different

impt note to all:- if u making money and result is positive equity curve, stick to what yur doing, changing your system may destroy the results

is the only advise i can give which is from the heart
  • #297,929
  • Jan 14, 2012 4:47am Jan 14, 2012 4:47am
Quoting nAVIN2007
impt note to all:- if u making money and result is positive equity curve, stick to what yur doing, changing your system may destroy the results
May? it most certainly will I've learnt that the hard way.
  • #297,930
  • Edited 5:09am Jan 14, 2012 4:48am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting GDR3k
May? it most certainly will I've learnt that the hard way.

theres a reason why these things need to be done on demo..

tricked once again
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  • #297,931
  • Jan 14, 2012 5:09am Jan 14, 2012 5:09am
Quoting nAVIN2007
theres a reason why these things need to be done on demo..

tricked once again
Indeed, its me against the market and since I've stuck to my own trading style I'm profitable, when I started entering trades not following my rules, I lost almost every time.
  • #297,932
  • Jan 14, 2012 5:13am Jan 14, 2012 5:13am
cable next week trade idea

http://i.imgur.com/jZ9i2.jpg
  • #297,933
  • Jan 14, 2012 5:23am Jan 14, 2012 5:23am
Quoting GDR3k
Indeed, its me against the market and since I've stuck to my own trading style I'm profitable, when I started entering trades not following my rules, I lost almost every time.

oh well still have a chance, very slim if this goes i need exit plan, seems crazy euro is in this kind of trouble..
  • #297,934
  • Jan 14, 2012 7:41am Jan 14, 2012 7:41am
i agree 100%!
once you find a good trading method, never change it!

i did..... and 2 accounts went out! ok, not big accounts but... money gone to market. still hard to recover those loss! actually i dont think anymore those loss because i need to be focused in the position, not in the money i need to recover.....

my main profits i did trading in h1+h4 with an eye on daily and weekly, no indicators. then i started looking indicators and everything fukked in a total confusion.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #297,935
  • Jan 14, 2012 8:06am Jan 14, 2012 8:06am
Quoting nAVIN2007
the only thing that matters is % gain/loss in 1 year..trading is such a thing where u can make very good trades but all it takes is 1 bad one to destroy everything..i am guilty of this..for one year i did the same thing every trade..i then thought i will try something different..now the result is different

impt note to all:- if u making money and result is positive equity curve, stick to what yur doing, changing your system may destroy the results

is the only advise i can give which is from the heart...
You are a special man who just got my vouch. Love ya man

Cheers,
Ally

  • #297,936
  • Jan 14, 2012 8:19am Jan 14, 2012 8:19am
Quoting bguguen
Actually UK is worse than France of Germany as a country a lone... thats why i wont be surprised next week we'll see a retrace on EU but GBP will find it difficult...
EuroZone members are pointing fingers are UK asking why arent the brits downgraded when the fact is... by now brits should've been downgraded same as France...
Personally I'd Watch out and yes GBPUSD did not close bullish, it did recover however but thats only the kneejerk effect of some Large orders filled below 5270...
so im still cautious if i were to long...
I do not agree that UK is in a worse position than France. Unfortunately for France, it is not resource rich as UK nor it has an independent central bank. In addition, UK has colossal amounts of money invested overseas. For example, UK is the largest foreign investor in the US equities and the third largest investor in US treasuries behind China and Japan. See link below:

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt

As you can see, France and Germany are way behind.

What do you think the UK investors will do when US$ appreciates considerably against the Pound? Here is an example:

Invest @ £10,000 (rate £1=$2.00) -> $20,000
Realise investment (rate £1= £1.50) -> £13,333
Return on investment (ignoring interest and tax) = 33.33%

I am told that the tipping point for serious repatriation of funds is around £1=$1.40 rate.

UK started to fix its economy far earlier than France i-e it was "ahead of the curve" rather than behind the curve. Also the independent Bank of England will be able to print money (as US did) to repay its Government debts and can prevent a default. Unfortunately, ECB is prevented by Law from printing money (or the so called "quantitative easing"). Moreover, there is no Government policy to maintain or defend a certain exchange rate against the US$. All these factors and others have given the £ a somewhat safe haven status which was recently illustrated when gilts were sold at negative yields i-e investors gave money to the Government to lend money to it. Crazy or what!

Moreover, the UK is going to benefit in 2012 from the Queen's diamond jubilee and the Olympics. In contrast, France has to suffer an election in April and possibly a change of Government. It is expected that president Sarkozy will lose the election and a socialist Government led by Hollande will become president.

Having said the above, UK is not immune from the troubles of eurozone as european union is the biggest trading partner of UK. The Pound has a ~60% correlation with the Euro and anything that affects the Euro will impact the Pound without any doubt.

My 2p worth of course!

PS: what an eventful Friday the 13th!. I wonder whether S&P deliberately chose this date or its a mere coincidence. Anyway next Friday would have been far worse as it is a double witching day.
  • #297,937
  • Jan 14, 2012 9:30am Jan 14, 2012 9:30am
I think gbpusd will move to 1.5390/1.5412 before it falls to 1.5000
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  • #297,938
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:07am Jan 14, 2012 10:07am
Quoting AllyB
You are a special man who just got my vouch. Love ya man

Cheers,
Ally

thank u
  • #297,939
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:09am Jan 14, 2012 10:09am
Quoting nAVIN2007
thank u
back
  • #297,940
  • Jan 14, 2012 10:30am Jan 14, 2012 10:30am
Quoting Rasi
I do not agree that UK is in a worse position than France. Unfortunately for France, it is not resource rich as UK nor it has an independent central bank. In addition, UK has colossal amounts of money invested overseas. For example, UK is the largest foreign investor in the US equities and the third largest investor in US treasuries behind China and Japan. See link below:

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt

As you can see, France and Germany are way behind.

What do you think the UK investors...
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