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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #297,501
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:43am Jan 12, 2012 1:43am
Quoting bguguen
You're up early... or did you stay up all night??
i got a pic to share
and it seems bad news for any GBPUSD bull hoping for a retracement...
Looks to me retracement has come and passed...
Attachment
we might be in for a big surprise today 1.5078
  • #297,502
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:44am Jan 12, 2012 1:44am
Quoting PoundTrader
never went to bed yet. it's 2:42am est here
Have you looked at the 2 pics i just uploaded... Man how on earth did i manage to catch that hint... Retracement is over for all i know.... 5270 is in bound...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,503
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:46am Jan 12, 2012 1:46am
Quoting bguguen
Have you looked at the 2 pics i just uploaded... Man how on earth did i manage to catch that hint... Retracement is over for all i know.... 5270 is in bound...
i see it, like i said we might hit 1.5078 today
  • #297,504
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:47am Jan 12, 2012 1:47am
Quoting PoundTrader
i see it, like i said we might hit 1.5078 today
literally caught it the moment i see it... and its logical... watch USDX... making another attempt upwards now since NY close...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,505
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:50am Jan 12, 2012 1:50am
Quoting PoundTrader
i see it, like i said we might hit 1.5078 today

thats very possible as the daily range is quite consumed of buyers i presume - south momentum very strong, id stick to shorts below dpp.


lets see how this hourly bar closes.

if it actually reaches d1 support at this hour (WOW) id take a long. if its not its just a short signal.


price actually IS at 161.8 extension of prev retracement. ill just wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: what the hell now.gif Size: 29 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #297,506
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:53am Jan 12, 2012 1:53am
Quoting bumapatria
thats very possible as the daily range is quite consumed of buyers i presume - south momentum very strong, id stick to shorts below dpp.


lets see how this hourly bar closes. ill look for patterns to go long into this falling cycle (hard to find anything to go long on really i dont see any trendlines or extensions or anything.)

if it actually reaches d1 support at this hour (WOW) id take a long. if its not its just a big short signal. i think.
Personally i think its only possible if shit hits the fan...
i am seeing GBPUSD resting consolidating at 1.5270 which is a major fib and its where GBPUSD reversed hard all the way back up to 1.6180 back in OCT2011, expecting strong support there, logically speaking, the market will stay consolidating until/after BOE and EUR rate decisions comes out, market aint ready to move before any shockers...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,507
  • Jan 12, 2012 1:57am Jan 12, 2012 1:57am
Quoting bguguen
Personally i think its only possible if shit hits the fan...
i am seeing GBPUSD resting consolidating at 1.5270 which is a major fib and its where GBPUSD reversed hard all the way back up to 1.6180 back in OCT2011, expecting strong support there, logically speaking, the market will stay consolidating until/after BOE and EUR rate decisions comes out, market aint ready to move before any shockers...
for some that went long awhile back shit has hit the fan
  • #297,508
  • Edited 2:18am Jan 12, 2012 1:57am | Edited 2:18am
Good going , by the time writing for a reply I see now it just missed my tp1 gu by few pips , ok , wait for next time . 5271 tp1 ( few pips above actually, reached & below but spread may have been increased ) ) . eu still not started down also , very good sign , gu may double the movements of eu today . eu tp 1 2621 & next 2530 .
indicator test lots in uj ok & + & gbpchf + also . great go perhaps next but carefull with great news today after few hours . and movement should be very minimum before they come up .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #297,509
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:00am Jan 12, 2012 2:00am
Quoting Balmain Boy
You seem to be have a misunderstanding of the information .
The results were WORSE than forecast .
Expectation was for minus £8.3 bil and came in at minus £8.6 bil ( £300 mil worse ) . That's why it printed in Red as well .
Yes but this is what it says when you click on it's info button:


Usual EffectActual > Forecast = Good for currency;

That has to be a mistake by FF then.
  • #297,510
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:07am Jan 12, 2012 2:07am
Quoting shocfacter
Yes but this is what it says when you click on it's info button:


Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

That has to be a mistake by FF then.
Buddy the stuff on the Info by FF canot be heavily relied upon... in some economies and increase in inflation is seen as a good thing specially for a deflating economy
you just need to know what the data would mean....
you heard it from the pros that the INFO that FF has on data releases, are unreliable....
Use some economic sense... if a country suffers from Inflationary Pressure, you want a Lower than expected value to help the economy.... which is the case i suppose... the French CPI for an example... with the French economy in Inflation rather than deflation, high inflation means a higher cost of production and higher prices of goods and services, Lowered demand for goods and services, means it could lead to an economic contraction... as theres lowered demand for goods and services, less goods are produced then economy growth slows....
Bad news for France to have an increase in Inflation... HOWEVER... its not affecting the EURO as heavily as some people thought... this is just a moderate data relases on the French CPI... you got other Countries in EURO to consider too.... thats why those Yellow colour data release could literally be disregarded....
I just used some pretty bog standard 1st Year economic theory here to help you understand..
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,511
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:08am Jan 12, 2012 2:08am
Quoting kikkofrio
thinking short:
http://www.kikkichimoku.com/home/201...ale-short.html
http://gyazo.com/260879ca2f8505451307c1396e4134ea.png
{Promotion Removed}
  • #297,512
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:15am Jan 12, 2012 2:15am
Quoting bguguen
Buddy the stuff on the Info by FF canot be heavily relied upon... in some economies and increase in inflation is seen as a good thing specially for a deflating economy
you just need to know what the data would mean....
you heard it from the pros that the INFO that FF has on data releases, are unreliable....
Use some economic sense... if a country suffers from Inflationary Pressure, you want a Lower than expected value to help the economy.... which is the case i suppose... the French CPI for an example... with the French economy in Inflation...
I appreciate the info buguguen. I have to start double checking what's on these calendars and not blindly rely on what they say. Most news release numbers are obvious to me but there are a few that I do need to study up on. Always something new to learn in this biz. That's one of the things I love about it.
  • #297,513
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:16am Jan 12, 2012 2:16am
Quoting PoundTrader
for some that went long awhile back shit has hit the fan
Holy shit dude... im charting like a pro... im getting the same support levels as these guys wtf?!

http://0.gravatar.com/avatar/c336bf8...0&d=retro&r=PG
Cable slips in early European trade

Written by Gerry Davies
January 12, 2012 at 07:51 GMT

Down at 1.5295 from around 1.5320 when I parked my bum. Source reports leveraged player sold a decent clip.
Important technical support now looms at 1.5270 (17 month low)
My favourite UK clearer sees a closing break below this level opening up possibility of a move to 1.4200!!!
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,514
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:17am Jan 12, 2012 2:17am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

The squeeze short seems to be weakening. 15min cycle indication for retrace possible from these levels. I am taking a long position here to see if we can retest 1.5360 ( the low of last month) or then 1.5374 ( the low of last week). do not put too much weight on this call, as I am still testing.

Will cut trade if we break lower level of daily channel by high (around 1.5295)

Just a scalp.

Regards
Good day to you,

Stopped out. Paper trading the following concept to see if the cycle could still work. Moving onto larger timeframe - SL moved down to 1.5243 - long added @ 1.5284 - BE thus 1.5304 - TP adjusted to 1.5400

Gotta give it a fair chance -

Off to the office - see later

Regards
  • #297,515
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:20am Jan 12, 2012 2:20am
Quoting shocfacter
I appreciate the info buguguen. I have to start double checking what's on these calendars and not blindly rely on what they say. Most news release numbers are obvious to me but there are a few that I do need to study up on. Always something new to learn in this biz. That's one of the things I love about it.
Dont worry too much buddy, people make mistakes, as long as you learn from it you'll do fine... for me...
I have 3 years of economics major on my belt and time to time i still cant quite figure out market's movement, until you start having the mindset used by the big boys (the Hedgefund managers, Big Banks like Goldman Sachs and Central bankers)
you need to realise the market is heavily manipulated by these guys... Fundamental only gives you a general direciton to where the market is headed... but technicals can shomehow reveal where the big boys are manipulating the market towards... i use fibs to see those S/R levels thes big boys are playing for...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,516
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:23am Jan 12, 2012 2:23am
This bullshit pair ruined by day today...
  • #297,517
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:26am Jan 12, 2012 2:26am
Quoting abdul_halim
holding short...
TP (sell) hit..
long,my view..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ddd.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #297,518
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:27am Jan 12, 2012 2:27am
Quoting abdul_halim
TP (sell) hit..
long,my view..
SL..15pip
  • #297,519
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:30am Jan 12, 2012 2:30am
Quoting fontu
Thanks for concern . Why not? they also works & working now already to the best , not using all though & all time , anyway price breaks 1641.15 to me a disaster as watching it closely for pairs but not not , this beast going it's own way ,with huge investors unrest for impending or possible economic crash in 2012 , still only January start of the year & nothing happened yet & hence think not any ground it will hold & continue up enough . in chart also there lies limit next 1665 or so , lots of resistances stop up the there are lots channels , waves...

Thank you very much for the explanation.

Was just trying to share that we're kinda in an 'abnormal situation regarding pair correlation.

All the best to you.

Regards
  • #297,520
  • Edited 5:57am Jan 12, 2012 2:34am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting bguguen
Personally i think its only possible if shit hits the fan...
i am seeing GBPUSD resting consolidating at 1.5270 which is a major fib and its where GBPUSD reversed hard all the way back up to 1.6180 back in OCT2011, expecting strong support there, logically speaking, the market will stay consolidating until/after BOE and EUR rate decisions comes out, market aint ready to move before any shockers...
5260 is S1 on the intraday. But we could easily see 5200 WS2 or lower. If you look at the monthly 4215/6745 fib, 61.8% is sitting very close to the monthly LTL in this area. Watching EU for the lead here on the next leg. It's forming a temporary bottom 2700 area between the DO and DP. No break out yet. We may move up w/ EU if it wants to test 2750 or a bit higher at 2800. USDX at the resistance line as well.

more patience, coffee, a nap, not sure...lol
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