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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,501
  • Jan 8, 2012 2:53pm Jan 8, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting krunfx
if azumi did not react it can make uj vulnerable to break postwar low then azumi probably hard to weaken yen again at that point!
Azumi, via this interview, made it crystal clear that he's in the dark on this one. He has no clue whatsoever as how to fight this superstrong Yen uptrend.

So in this respect, he only made things worse, hence the drop to yet new lows. These kind of remarks will open Pandora's box as markets smell blood. Azumi is no longer losing credibility as he has managed to get rid of the last bit he had in recent months... markets begin to see that the emperor is wearing no clothes !

All imo !
  • #29,502
  • Jan 8, 2012 3:22pm Jan 8, 2012 3:22pm
still the usdjpy will most likely get stronger as u.s. data keeps getting better. At least better than the euro. so if Azumi doesn't care about the eurjpy that's probably because usdjpy is headed to help Japan.
  • #29,503
  • Jan 8, 2012 3:27pm Jan 8, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting werido
still the usdjpy will most likely get stronger as u.s. data keeps getting better. At least better than the euro. so if Azumi doesn't care about the eurjpy that's probably because usdjpy is headed to help Japan.
Usd/Jpy can only move up structurally when EU sorts out its mess. Till then, Jpy will remain far more attractive and stronger then the US ... remember, Japan has a very low inflation rate, net proceeds of Japanese bonds are still way more attractive than US ones ... hence, the flow into Yen will remain strong.

Agree that the Usd/Jpy will drop less than its European counterpart, but it will not move up and break the strong downtrend as long as investors feel a strong need for a safe haven.

Now off to sleep ;-)
  • #29,504
  • Jan 8, 2012 3:31pm Jan 8, 2012 3:31pm
Quoting SIgurs
Usd/Jpy can only move up structurally when EU sorts out its mess. Till then, Jpy will remain far more attractive and stronger then the US ... remember, Japan has a very low inflation rate, net proceeds of Japanese bonds are still way more attractive than US ones ... hence, the flow into Yen will remain strong.

Agree that the Usd/Jpy will drop less than its European counterpart, but it will not move up and break the strong downtrend as long as investors feel a strong need for a safe haven.

Now off to sleep ;-)
Still the large debt to gdp ratio in japan might scare off some of that influx if exports remain low. Sony is being challenged by Apple and Samsung....that probably needs to be corrected to gain back large scale jpy investment. But as the usdjpy goes up it should get easier to compete.
  • #29,505
  • Jan 8, 2012 10:10pm Jan 8, 2012 10:10pm
Quoting SIgurs
Usd/Jpy breaking last Fridays low in pre market as well as the Eur pair. As the EU is unable to tackle its debt crisis Yen is heading higher.

However, with or without EU action a bounce could be a powerfull one ... personally not interested in playing Yen to the short side .... still waiting for an opportunity to go long the Yen aggressively, as this is and will be the safest way to play the Yen for quite some time to come.

Still hoping that mr Azumi steps in as it would probably mean lots of extra Kudo's for Yen believers like eg myself ;-)...
No more short mate?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,506
  • Jan 8, 2012 10:54pm Jan 8, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting SIgurs
Why take such risks, why go countertrend, why not go with the flow ? There is way more to gain NOT going countertrend.

Just my 2 cents !
Ok , seems too risky to you ? what side not risky then ? take your own trend system work for you .
anyway not taken any action here or even have the time to see the chart this morning . but should be ok & as signal for other pair also .
Thanks for advice ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #29,507
  • Jan 8, 2012 10:56pm Jan 8, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting FXMindset
No more short mate?
Waiting for a short ... yawnnn .... ;-)
  • #29,508
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:55am Jan 9, 2012 1:55am
Quoting SIgurs
Waiting for a short ... yawnnn .... ;-)
waiting 1-2 cs daily to confirm it
Bismillah
  • #29,509
  • Jan 9, 2012 7:43am Jan 9, 2012 7:43am
Quoting krunfx
And last think shirakawa visit switzerland+england n azumi to US to see geithner with noda hopefully give us clear signal on yentervention soon
Perhaps Shirakawa is attending a course in Switzerland on how to put in a solid base ;-)
  • #29,510
  • Jan 9, 2012 8:08am Jan 9, 2012 8:08am
Not regularly trading it but taken a long at the present bottom already to see .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #29,511
  • Jan 9, 2012 8:33am Jan 9, 2012 8:33am
Quoting SIgurs
Boj needs to act very soon and forcefull if they want to avoid Japanese economic armageddon. This weeks strenght against the Euro is an added worry for Azumi and friends. Note that despite dollar strenght, the usd/jpy pair is not going through the roof ... makes you wonder, doesnt it ?
DJ WSJ: Honda CEO Says Co Moving To Reduce Exposure To Strong Yen

Guess this is just the beginning.
  • #29,512
  • Jan 9, 2012 12:29pm Jan 9, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting SIgurs
Perhaps Shirakawa is attending a course in Switzerland on how to put in a solid base ;-)

hhahaha
Bismillah
  • #29,513
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:12am Jan 10, 2012 8:12am
When will Azumi decide that enough is enough, when will he wake up and realize that his way of handling the Yen appreciation crisis is due for mild changes ;-)

I need some cash. LOL
Attached Image
  • #29,514
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:28am Jan 10, 2012 8:28am
Quoting SIgurs
When will Azumi decide that enough is enough, when will he wake up and realize that his way of handling the Yen appreciation crisis is due for mild changes ;-)

I need some cash. LOL

Well when, he's obviously going to wait until you're stopped out

But seriously, i think we could be forming a bottom here...
  • #29,515
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:22am Jan 10, 2012 9:22am
Quoting lolygagv2
Well when, he's obviously going to wait until you're stopped out

But seriously, i think we could be forming a bottom here...
First of all, I dont have a position in this pair. Still waiting for an intervention bounce to short ;-)

Secondly, I doubt whether we are seeing a bottoming process. Have the impression that this pair is only holding up due to intervention fear. The longer it takes the bigger the chances of this pair dropping below 76.50's and back to all time lows.

All just my 2 cents !
  • #29,516
  • Jan 10, 2012 11:49am Jan 10, 2012 11:49am
Shirakawa: Yen Is Rising As Least Ugly Major Currency [Dow Jones]

I would have added the word "perceived".
How much does he get paid to come up with such smart observations ? lol
  • #29,517
  • Jan 10, 2012 12:54pm Jan 10, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting SIgurs
When will Azumi decide that enough is enough, when will he wake up and realize that his way of handling the Yen appreciation crisis is due for mild changes ;-)

I need some cash. LOL

he said "must to watch long term effect.... from his word i think he maybe hold the fire.....but most probably aster eu summit n S&P rating comesout.....but who knows....the intervention usually not success if it not a suprise event ...
Bismillah
  • #29,518
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:07pm Jan 10, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting krunfx
he said "must to watch long term effect.... from his word i think he maybe hold the fire.....but most probably aster eu summit n S&P rating comesout.....but who knows....the intervention usually not success if it not a suprise event ...

MY guess is logically, there's two choices, if it drops below a critical level, and this critical level is not a hard set USD/JPY or Euro number, but more a ratio level determined upon other countries actions and current economic forces, then boom, they'll do a one off intervention and send it up a few hundred pips again just to tide their exporters over.

The other choice is, and is most likely, they'll wait until the markets turn on some kind of the events above, like S&P or EU summit clarity that supports a weaker yen, and then boom, they'll give the trend a boost by intervening.

I do suspect unless things magically turn around, they will try and get us back to 90 USDJPY sometime this year, come hell or high water.
  • #29,519
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:17pm Jan 10, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting lolygagv2
MY guess is logically, there's two choices, if it drops below a critical level, and this critical level is not a hard set USD/JPY or Euro number, but more a ratio level determined upon other countries actions and current economic forces, then boom, they'll do a one off intervention and send it up a few hundred pips again just to tide their exporters over.

The other choice is, and is most likely, they'll wait until the markets turn on some kind of the events above, like S&P or EU summit clarity that supports a weaker yen, and then boom, they'll...
agree....automakers favor yen lower to atleast 90-94Y to help their bisness from getting loss due to yen strength!!!
Bismillah
  • #29,520
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:59pm Jan 10, 2012 1:59pm
Elliott Wave view
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