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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,461
  • Jan 6, 2012 7:23am Jan 6, 2012 7:23am
Quoting krunfx
BOJ Shirakawa To Visit Switzerland, London On Jan 7-12

the time same with noda n azumi visting US..should be a hint
Perhaps trying to gather support for a joint intervention ... which he probably wont get. When will he finally realize that he's on his own and act accordingly ?

Losing credibility at a rapid pace !
  • #29,462
  • Jan 6, 2012 7:56am Jan 6, 2012 7:56am
i think that will do in 3 weeks, but eur yen will go to 90?
Quoting SIgurs
Perhaps trying to gather support for a joint intervention ... which he probably wont get. When will he finally realize that he's on his own and act accordingly ?

Losing credibility at a rapid pace !
" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #29,463
  • Jan 6, 2012 7:57am Jan 6, 2012 7:57am
Quoting redteamgo
short @ 77.19. this should be a nice little fade
scratched @ be+3
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #29,464
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:58am Jan 6, 2012 11:58am
Quoting SIgurs
Perhaps trying to gather support for a joint intervention ... which he probably wont get. When will he finally realize that he's on his own and act accordingly ?

Losing credibility at a rapid pace !
am pretty sure intervention might be happen again but the problem is..it is effective or repeated the same thing drop and drop again,

Now for UJ am only need to see 78 fix break to confirm the valid 2010 high trend till now
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,465
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:08pm Jan 6, 2012 1:08pm
This pairs simply wont going up without intervention..Gosh
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,466
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:21pm Jan 6, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting FXMindset
This pairs simply wont going up without intervention..Gosh

I'm beginning to lose focus. Yen is stuck in a permanent uptrend, and it still doesn't make sense to me. IS there really THAT much money just parking in Yen to maintain stahbiliteee (said like Trichet).

Who is buying this? Besides obvious traders going on technicals. It's just shocking to me to see this play out the way it has, but again, you can't fight it, this has been defying logic for 20 some years now. In a sane world, Japan should be closer to an all time low versus a lot of these currencies, and yet it's India with a record rupee low vs the dollar.

I don't think it'll go down much more, we've reached a really vulnerable period, if you wanted to try for a long play for a month or so, or as the movement lately, a YEAR.....Stop would be at 69 and take profit would be north of 80, preferably 85 or 90, depending on what happens.

I'm long right now, I'l get out if breach and hold below 76, but it's going nowhere right now, so I'm ok with whatever these BOJ freaks decide to do.
  • #29,467
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:24pm Jan 6, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting lolygagv2
I'm beginning to lose focus. Yen is stuck in a permanent uptrend, and it still doesn't make sense to me. IS there really THAT much money just parking in Yen to maintain stahbiliteee (said like Trichet).

Who is buying this? Besides obvious traders going on technicals. It's just shocking to me to see this play out the way it has, but again, you can't fight it, this has been defying logic for 20 some years now. In a sane world, Japan should be closer to an all time low versus a lot of these currencies, and yet it's India with a record rupee...
The Key is your MM
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,468
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:35pm Jan 6, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting FXMindset
The Key is your MM
? I see a decent opportunity to short on a break of 76 and a hold where it doesn't come back into this range.

The trick is with the SSI, most speculators are and have been net long on USDJPY.....but again they have been for YEARS NOW. So this indicates we could go down more, but again we are in vulnerable territory, a far cry from a 260 yen 10 years ago, but the trend down is super strong, so it's going to take something monumental to overturn it, hence it's better to go short for the time being.

Secondly I see a long term trade buy with a stop at 69 and an intervention target ahead of 85. Ideally, you could money manage both to profit. Everyone has different risk levels, so MM is usually on a per trader level.
  • #29,469
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:39pm Jan 6, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting lolygagv2
? I see a decent opportunity to short on a break of 76 and a hold where it doesn't come back into this range.

The trick is with the SSI, most speculators are and have been net long on USDJPY.....but again they have been for YEARS NOW. So this indicates we could go down more, but again we are in vulnerable territory, a far cry from a 260 yen 10 years ago, but the trend down is super strong, so it's going to take something monumental to overturn it, hence it's better to go short for the time being.

Secondly I see a long term trade buy with...

Good night - Sleepy now
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,470
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:37pm Jan 6, 2012 2:37pm
Boj needs to act very soon and forcefull if they want to avoid Japanese economic armageddon. This weeks strenght against the Euro is an added worry for Azumi and friends. Note that despite dollar strenght, the usd/jpy pair is not going through the roof ... makes you wonder, doesnt it ?

Tough talk and conventional intervention will not do the trick ... sure hope they dont fall into that same old trap, though I wouldnt be surprised ;-)

Want to comment on some of previous posts by others:

"BOJ Shirakawa To Visit Switzerland, London On Jan 7-12 / the time same with noda n azumi visting US..should be a hint"

Wouldnt expect anything but tough talk from Geither, Shirakawa and Azumi - no way that US will help japan fight the strong Yen as it would be bad for US exports.

"JAPAN FINMIN AZUMI - WANT EUROPE TO DISCUSS FUNDING SHORTAGES IN ITS BANKING SECTOR AND TAKE NECESSARY ACTION"

Azumi can talk and demand whatever he wants, dont have the impression that the EU is inclined to speed up matters. Hell, these EU guys managed to let Greece contaminate the whole of the Eurozone in less than 2 years. back in 2008 they told us Europeans that everything was under control ... we can all see what those words were worth. After numerous summits, talks and meetings it's still a complete and utter mess. Therefore, one would be a complete moron if one counts on those guys to sort out their mess and help you out.


So, in short mr Azumi and friends: it's all up to you, your wits, your guts and especially your actions !!! Oh, before I forget ... you are running out of valuable time. LOL
  • #29,471
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:38pm Jan 6, 2012 10:38pm
Insanity : Doing the same things over and over again
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,472
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:01am Jan 7, 2012 12:01am
Quoting SIgurs
Boj needs to act very soon and forcefull if they want to avoid Japanese economic armageddon. This weeks strenght against the Euro is an added worry for Azumi and friends. Note that despite dollar strenght, the usd/jpy pair is not going through the roof ... makes you wonder, doesnt it ?

Tough talk and conventional intervention will not do the trick ... sure hope they dont fall into that same old trap, though I wouldnt be surprised ;-)

Want to comment on some of previous posts by others:

"BOJ Shirakawa To Visit Switzerland, London On Jan 7-12...

Hmm, while your postings seem articulate enough and interesting nonetheless - they do exhibit a strong sense of emotion.

Are you currently engaged in a large long position?

IMO we'd have to venture below 70, possibly 67-69 before market dynamics can "balance themselves out" ....

The billions they spent in their last intervention efforts accomplished nothing except to make lazy and highly leveraged traders boatloads of money...of course at the expense of the Japanese citizens. That money could have be funneled to the Earthquake cleanup/relief effort. I trust the Japanese won't make this mistake again.

One must only look at U/CHF to understand what "rebalancing" looks like on a chart

Revised pending buy orders from 72 to 69.42
  • #29,473
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:18am Jan 7, 2012 12:18am
Quoting FXMindset
Insanity : Doing the same things over and over again
Hello buddy. Hope all is well and that we have a good year trading this pair.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

-Albert Einstein
  • #29,474
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:36am Jan 7, 2012 1:36am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hello buddy. Hope all is well and that we have a good year trading this pair.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

-Albert Einstein
Gosh..it took you quite long to show up in here..haha


Welcome home mate
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,475
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:45am Jan 7, 2012 3:45am
great appreciation about it continues , not seeing where posted earlier . anyway update uj & usdx
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post5275013
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #29,476
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:55am Jan 7, 2012 3:55am
Quoting fontu
great appreciation about it continues , not seeing where posted earlier . anyway update uj & usdx
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post5275013
fontu
Very messy..hehe..Just a simple chart with just fibo n 2 tl with a lil bit jun azumi speculation can show..hehe
Bismillah
  • #29,477
  • Edited 7:16am Jan 7, 2012 6:27am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting krunfx
Very messy..hehe..Just a simple chart with just fibo n 2 tl with a lil bit jun azumi speculation can show..hehe
sure one old chart with no pomp & show , life is as such & specially forex maket , very messy . to adjust within the diamond in the sky .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #29,478
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:53am Jan 7, 2012 6:53am
Quoting fontu
sure one old chart with no pop & show , life is as such & specially forex maket , very messy . to adjust within the diamond in the sky .
fontu

Hehe ok fren..
Bismillah
  • #29,479
  • Edited 7:43am Jan 7, 2012 7:14am | Edited 7:43am
Diamond reversal pattern could be real, but here are some charts that I'm sure Azumi San might understand.

I am of the opinion that UJ is now entering its final move down before it moves up for its long awaited reversal as wave A, B, C to form wave 2 of 5.

Will it be truncated at the 76.5 level, travel to 1 hr channel bottom (which happens to be around the former all time low, or crash violently into the 73 area or below???

Shown are daily, 4hr and 1hr charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj daily.jpg Size: 71 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 4hr.jpg Size: 76 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 1hr.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #29,480
  • Jan 7, 2012 7:25am Jan 7, 2012 7:25am
Quoting Mpt
Diamond reversal pattern could be real, but here are some charts that I'm sure Azumi San might understand.

I am of the opinion that UJ is now entering its final move down before it moves up for its long awaited reversal as wave A, B, C to form wave 2 of 5.

Will it be truncated at the 76.5 level, travel to 1 hr channel bottom (which happens to be around the former all time low, or crash violently into the 73 area or below???

Shown are daily, 4hr and 1hr charts.

Attachment

Attachment

Attachment ...
We will catch the trend after 1-2days daily cs form!huhu
Bismillah
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Shafii