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Daily Pivot Point Trades

  • #281
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:53am Jan 10, 2012 8:53am
Quoting infinitus
for the moment yes, but herd will return to the previous path again.

Robert Prechter once had a very good analysis about CB intervention. Have to look if I can find.....

I agree with this. News may interrupt, but but price has a place to go and it will get there.
  • #282
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:57am Jan 10, 2012 8:57am
Quoting jzw
I always thought that story was an urban myth. I once heard someone ask Linda Raschke whether she used pivots and she said she had never met a floor trader who did.

She did go on to say that the idea of a pivot, ie a fixed reference price to which you compare the current price was very important.

It's all bout s/r in my opinion. Whether you use a 20 ema as sr, or pivots, or round numbers, ichi, mm, or anything else, it's all about s/r. What you have to figure out is an entry for them, and probably more importantly is the exit.
  • #283
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:59am Jan 10, 2012 8:59am
Quoting knucklehead
It's all bout s/r in my opinion. Whether you use a 20 ema as sr, or pivots, or round numbers, ichi, mm, or anything else, it's all about s/r. What you have to figure out is an entry for them, and probably more importantly is the exit.
S/R?

they are important as reference but they offer no Support and Offer no resistance.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #284
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:59am Jan 10, 2012 8:59am
Quoting the redlion
my questions where meant to make you think.........i do have a little knowledge regarding pivots

and i have ran statistics on them to find objective data.

if i am not welcomed here to discuss ideas i will take my leave........no problem

I welcome you, not my thread, but I welcome you. How do you run your stats?
  • #285
  • Jan 10, 2012 8:59am Jan 10, 2012 8:59am
through

R
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  • #286
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:00am Jan 10, 2012 9:00am
Quoting the redlion
well the failure of success is a different question in itself

but BOJ has defended at 76.00 floor on the yen havent they

the fed with low interest, low fed's fund rate, and QE's did succeed in devaluation of the greenback

are they good policies? you be the judge
but most countries that Run a fiat system believe in Keynesian economics (i cant spell his name right lol)

but you do agree that THEY intervene,

Hehehe, have to go through that point by point

a) BOJ

From an Elliott wave point of view the intervention was way too late. Price ran since months in an ending contracting diagonal wave 5

That means, that BOJ could have safed the money. The herd was about to run into the other direction

b) with the greenback again at under 1.30 with a tendence to eventually take out the low 1.18 I can not see your argument. looking at stock markets they are at the verge on falling off the cliff again. All that QE has done was serving the banks and reinflating a bubble

c) kenysians never get it right, never ever. Because in their world there seems to be no deflation. But look at Japan and two decades of deflation, even so the BOJ kept the interest rates low. You can not push the herd into spending when the herd does not want.......
  • #287
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:00am Jan 10, 2012 9:00am
Quoting the redlion
S/R?

they are important as reference but they offer no Support and Offer no resistance.

Well, that is the point. Not really sure what you mean by saying s/r offers no s/r.
  • #288
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:29am Jan 10, 2012 9:29am
Quoting infinitus
Hehehe, have to go through that point by point

a) BOJ

From an Elliott wave point of view the intervention was way too late. Price ran since months in an ending contracting diagonal wave 5

That means, that BOJ could have safed the money. The herd was about to run into the other direction

b) with the greenback again at under 1.30 with a tendence to eventually take out the low 1.18 I can not see your argument. looking at stock markets they are at the verge on falling off the cliff again. All that QE has done was serving the banks and reinflating...
i think you and i have a fundamental difference on how we view charts

you are postulating that a chart will dictate price

i believe that price will dictate everything you see on the chart.

because you see wave 5 doesn't mean anything.............per se

however the transactions creating the wave 5 formation in your chart can as easily mutate it into something different.

to me elliot's best theory was not his count of waves........which are pretty ambiguous, you can see wave 1, i can say wave 3 and it is always easier expo facto,

his greatest contribution is the fact that he theorized that price MOVES IN WAVES
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #289
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:33am Jan 10, 2012 9:33am
Quoting knucklehead
Well, that is the point. Not really sure what you mean by saying s/r offers no s/r.
I am saying that S/R is a very good tool to indicate past areas where transactions have reached their extremes.

does not really tell you whether THIS TIME orders will not be executed above or below this areas however it gives you a pretty good reference to watch out for.

In other words, cautions you on what previously was seem as extremes in price movement.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #290
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:44am Jan 10, 2012 9:44am
Quoting the redlion
I am saying that S/R is a very good tool to indicate past areas where transactions have reached their extremes.

does not really tell you whether THIS TIME orders will not be executed above or below this areas however it gives you a pretty good reference to watch out for.

In other words, cautions you on what previously was seem as extremes in price movement.
Do you think price repeats itself? But of course s/r will broke at some time. Imo, you can trade from s/r to s/r, you just need a compass. That's all.

What type of system do you trade?
  • #291
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:51am Jan 10, 2012 9:51am
Quoting knucklehead
Do you think price repeats itself? But of course s/r will broke at some time. Imo, you can trade from s/r to s/r, you just need a compass. That's all.

What type of system do you trade?
i do not think price repeats itself.

every second of those 2860+ trading days the euro has ever seen.

the people selling and buying, were not the same for the same reasons, using the same information.

however, the general direction of the CONSENSUS of market participants can be seen on the charts, and many successful traders can anticipate them, exploit inefficiencies or ride the trends.

what type of system do i trade?..........discretionary.

i use technical tools to measure, things that i consider important, but i am well aware i cannot predict price with accuracy and because the market changes with every single tick my views or analysis can be CORRECT right now, but outdated in the next minute.

the market is a big conundrum.......I am no guru and do not claim to know all the answers, but i do tell you that i do not like B/S and do a lot of research......there is always a reason for everything its just a matter of finding the reason and purpose
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #292
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:55am Jan 10, 2012 9:55am
Quoting the redlion
i think you and i have a fundamental difference on how we view charts

you are postulating that a chart will dictate price

i believe that price will dictate everything you see on the chart.

because you see wave 5 doesn't mean anything.............per se

however the transactions creating the wave 5 formation in your chart can as easily mutate it into something different.

to me elliot's best theory was not his count of waves........which are pretty ambiguous, you can see wave 1, i can say wave 3 and it is always easier expo facto,

his...

I believe that only the herd dictates the price in the longer run. Nothing different I have stated........
  • #293
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:58am Jan 10, 2012 9:58am
Quoting infinitus
I believe that only the herd dictates the price in the longer run. Nothing different I have stated........
i will agree with you............the INFORMED herd
the uninformed will provide liquidity
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #294
  • Jan 10, 2012 9:58am Jan 10, 2012 9:58am
Quoting the redlion
I am saying that S/R is a very good tool to indicate past areas where transactions have reached their extremes.

does not really tell you whether THIS TIME orders will not be executed above or below this areas however it gives you a pretty good reference to watch out for.

In other words, cautions you on what previously was seem as extremes in price movement.
Ahmmmmm, and you really know what your true question is?

Do you know the saying that price has a memory? Well, maybe not the price, but the herd......
  • #295
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:00am Jan 10, 2012 10:00am
so if european banks starved for dollar liquidity begin to buy open market at a support level...........price will not move down? just because it is at support?

meaning the exchange rate of eur/usd not the price of the dollar.

my premise is that, ranges, volatility, s/r, s/d all being very useful tools pose the following question "all things being equal......" just like EVERY SINGLE TECHNICAL TOOL OUT THERE.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #296
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:03am Jan 10, 2012 10:03am
Quoting the redlion
i do not think price repeats itself.

every second of those 2860+ trading days the euro has ever seen.

the people selling and buying, were not the same for the same reasons, using the same information.

however, the general direction of the CONSENSUS of market participants can be seen on the charts, and many successful traders can anticipate them, exploit inefficiencies or ride the trends.

what type of system do i trade?..........discretionary.

i use technical tools to measure, things that i consider important, but i am well aware i cannot predict...

I am gonna disagree with you on this. If you draw s/r lines on a D1 chart, from years ago, that s/r line will be again, just at a different point in time. With Ichimoku, I use Kumo Shadows as part of my anaylsis to determine many things, but one is r:r and if the trade is worth getting into. If its less 1:3, I don't touch it.

The reason price is attracted back is, human psychy. No matter if you trade 100 usd lots, or mini's, you still have the same thought fear, expectations and so forth.
  • #297
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:05am Jan 10, 2012 10:05am
Quoting the redlion
so if european banks starved for dollar liquidity begin to buy open market at a support level...........price will not move down? just because it is at support?

meaning the exchange rate of eur/usd not the price of the dollar.

my premise is that, ranges, volatility, s/r, s/d all being very useful tools pose the following question "all things being equal......" just like EVERY SINGLE TECHNICAL TOOL OUT THERE.

No, not at all, but price will react around those areas, and price will not go down forever and will retrace, either impulsive or corrective. It is a good reference, but it is also more then that.
  • #298
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:06am Jan 10, 2012 10:06am
Quoting the redlion
i do not think price repeats itself.

every second of those 2860+ trading days the euro has ever seen.

the people selling and buying, were not the same for the same reasons, using the same information.

however, the general direction of the CONSENSUS of market participants can be seen on the charts, and many successful traders can anticipate them, exploit inefficiencies or ride the trends.

what type of system do i trade?..........discretionary.

i use technical tools to measure, things that i consider important, but i am well aware i...

That is excactly what I said to Mercy.

I said that there are a lot of people out there who love the search for the holy grail but are not interested in itself.

That said, the discussion with you leads to nothing, because I, and a few other members here, are not knowing what you are looking for, talking about.

As I see it the solution for you might be found in quantum mechanics......
  • #299
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:08am Jan 10, 2012 10:08am
i do not think that disproves my claim

pull up the same chart and see that 1.30 was an area of support............what is the price today 1.2775?

as i said before all tools pose the question of " all things being equal............i can expect Ω to happen"

trend line= projected trajectory through velocity
s/r, s/d = historical extremes where orders execution was non existent past these levels
pivots,BB,ATR,= expected volatility
price formations= patterns of price movement
you name it...........and the question remains the same.

no predictive quality whatsoever, but good tools for observation
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #300
  • Jan 10, 2012 10:11am Jan 10, 2012 10:11am
Quoting infinitus
That is excactly what I said to Mercy.

I said that there are a lot of people out there who love the search for the holy grail but are not interested in itself.

That said, the discussion with you leads to nothing, because I, and a few other members here, are not knowing what you are looking for, talking about.

As I see it the solution for you might be found in quantum mechanics......
sorry to hear that, we got off on a tangent.

maybe we should go back to strategies using pivot points. It was the intended idea behind this thread. How to come up with ways to use pivots as tools to find probabilities and increase our chances of success
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
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