Circular Trendlines

EUR on its way to more upward movement toward 2880, then a retracement and final destination is 2900-2930 region.

A bit slow on the upward move, but we should be seeing 5550 for today

Having seen the less than inspiring reaction of the EUR to break the 2800 level towards 2900 yesterday, I have to only conclude that the acceleration downwards is beginning again and is going to be even stronger than before dipping to the lows of 2200 very soon.

This is because of few observations:

Any reversal has to travel very far and very fast in its initial stages. This means that the pole of the black circle should have been broken decisively by now, which it hasnt.

The other point to note is a shift in the angle of attack of the down move as shown by the blue straight lines. This shift implies a greater speed of movement than before.

The blue straight lines have a very steep slope, and this implies we can have either of these 2 cases happening:

Either we will dip very fast to 2400/2500 zone, and then make a shift to the T1 trendline and continue downwards again from there, or we will spend more time in the 2730-2830 region till we get to T1 and then dip lower from there, but the angle of attack of the down move has changed to something much steeper.

Whether we are right now gonna go short or wait till we hit T1 line, really doesnt matter, because in both cases the slope is the same and the entry point wont make much of a difference because it would be very close to each other for the purposes of shorting this pair.

Quadruple Fibonacci price extension levels at 2600:

2570 is the 261.8 price extension of 4251-3609
2570 is the 161.8 price extension of 4251-3213
2590 is the 127.2 price extension of 4251-2945
2597 is the 138.2 price extension of 3855-2945
2598 is the 138.2 price extension of 4555-3139

Pretty important level, lets see how the market will react to it.

May be we will have a slight reaction upwards from there, but long term remains towards 2200

i posted this last week and 2680 still in Play as i thought.

thx kambooj 4 your good work! i make lots of $ watching this tread from begining . i think you should post analisis in daneric eliot wavews ! (http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com) and keep it coming. my proxy 4 $ is usd/pln . anyway your cricles its realy something new and somethimes you miss but big picture is awesome. my first target 4 usd index is 82.60 - 83 and long time target is 87 and above something like this => http://thegreatbearmarket-avbursch.b...onth-high.html. gr8things poland!

http://i41.tinypic.com/2qi6z4x.jpg

Weekly
We have not yet reached our target of 2200 as far as this time frame is concerned. Anywhere between 1900 and 2200 could be a strong turn around for this pair.

H1
The EUR is at a resistance region at the lower pole of the black circle. The slopes of the down move as shown by the straight trendlines still remain in place. Any break of the black circle cannot be taken as a mark for a trend change on this pair if it gets stuck at the red line. This is roughly the 2910-2930 region.

M1
The only way that bullishness on the hourly has a chance to play itself is that movement has to consistently and significantly fall above the red line shown. If it doesnt, then we have a higher point to short this pair.

Glad you made some money and this thread was beneficial for you.

Overall circles have their pros and cons just like any other system, but are more easier to apply on charts where there is a lot of volume on the pair that is being traded, if volume is low then the chart becomes kind of jagged with spike all over the place which makes analysis a bit more difficult.

Sometimes its harder to apply the circles on GBP/USD chart because the nature of the movement is really wild on that pair, and I have to wait for few days for everything to calm down to see what its trying to do.

The biggest problem with circles, is in determinnig the extent of the move in impulsive markets, and because if a market is impulsive, it can be a straight line on a lot of smaller time frames below Hourly, then you dont have a lot of points to work with.

In such cases I find that I have to switch to the higher time frames to see whether a decent fit exists. If it doesnt exists, then direction is still the same, until a fit does exist.

This is also like a similar problem in Elliot Wave analysis too. When market is impulsive, specially if its a 5th wave extension impulse wave, its really hard to find when would that 5th wave finish. because it constantly breaks parallel trendlines, until it becomes into the shape of a megaphone, which by that time its way past expectations

Currently the EUR/USD pair on the higher time frames such as H8 and Daily is behaving like a slingshot. Its rewinding for a spike down. It looks like the spike down could be a big one, such as in the order of 250-300 pips in one day.

No kidding on that when I have seen it failed to turn around from 3000-2800

This upmove right now is another fake bullish move, because mainly of the change in slope of the angle of attack.

Overall I read that the analysts are predicting 2200 by end of March, but I think it will hit that sooner, and I wont be surprised if we dont see 1 EUR = 1 USD by year end, because with the momentum that its going now 2200 is a piece of cake. We might get a bounce upwards from 2200, but if this momentum continues on, then will be at the region of 1.000 - 1.1000

Take Care

hey kambooj long time no talk
nice analaysis on ur circles


did u try using vertical lines at ur circles intersection with another circle to see if price 'turns with time' at those intersections?

Havent tried that, but I will give it a try.

I concentrate mostly on the price hitting regions of circles, but thats a nice idea and I play around with it.

Thanks

Angle Shift on the EUR/USD pair

yep.. nobody has a crystall ball . we will see . but my "fudamental vision" is same as yours.. ofcourse it can change like everything on forex

i think $ fundamentaly should rise because we have presidential cycle this year + ECB LTRO aka money printing so 1.20 on eur/usd is realistic goal.

but like i said in my post my main focus is on usd/pln and because PLN is peeged to eur your charts is like gold !

Take Care!

http://www.elliottwaveforex.com/2012...12/#more-27695

In a previous post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post5284358

It was mentioned that as long as a reaction occurs relative to the red line shown in the below chart, we are still going down. The downward spike according to the H8 chart on a previous post has started and will go as far as 2500 for now:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post5290041

It has the potential to break the median line shown as well, which in that case it will go much further towards 2300 level, or it will reverse at 2500 and find a diffferent slope to continue its journey down, but for now we are at the beginning phases of our down move towards 2500

Daily
We are diving towards the 4500 level as shown by the very strong possibility in a shift in the angle of decent that is shown by the dotted blue curve.

H4
Motion going down and dipping towards the lows of 5000 where it will encounter a slight reaction at that level

After week PA still @1.2680 - I was right about this strong Support but very soon.... will give up
Catch u next week

Possible scenario

UBS technical outlook

Here is the view...

Maxing out at 2670-2700 zone with the next series of drops going to 2470 region.