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EUR/CHF

  • #2,141
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:11pm Jan 6, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting AaronWard
Raising it to 1.3 is probably not in the works just yet. Really, as long as the Euro is crashing, so is the CHF and that is what they want.

As for this being weird... I count 4 times it has shot from 1.21xx to 1.23xx in 4 months...
Of course they're happy with usd/chf but they intervened in eurchf which is what they care about most. Do you think they won't intervene again if their peg is challenged?
  • #2,142
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:48pm Jan 6, 2012 4:48pm
Quoting werido
Of course they're happy with usd/chf but they intervened in eurchf which is what they care about most. Do you think they won't intervene again if their peg is challenged?

they are already doing.
i already said: look at chart. faster timeframes are completely messed up. it is not moving "natural".
maybe they are acting in usd chf. look so heay fly in usd chf. ok stronger dollar... but it is surely pushed and going exactly in opposite syncro with EU. it doesn't happen always so perfefct syncro!

big matter here is about euro.
it is very weak! looks like there is no support and it is crashing like it did some 1-2 years ago heading below 1.20 vs USD

SNB will try to do their best to defend 1.20 line in eur chf, but how much can this whole thing keep going?

rumors about france downgrade, bond actions this week, and many other things have been priced in. what else will come out next week?

i expect a bounce this week in EU.
strong level between 1.25 - 1.27
a reversal pattern in hourly charts will be a good sign of recover.

time will tell
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,143
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:54am Jan 7, 2012 6:54am
In reference to my previous post,
The 1st Target of 1.2150 is done.
I am not talking about news/fundi'es/undi'es trading here... but anyone buying it PURELY technically, on any TF's like H1 and H4 knows nothing about simple patterns, PA & prolly technical analysis as a whole! (Disclaimer: I am not a tech analysis zealot either)

Other important levels to watch for ...remain the same, as before.
Its HIGHLY worth-while watching PA around 1.2120 level!
Will keep TIGHT watch on news though !

Lets WnWatch
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #2,144
  • Jan 7, 2012 7:15am Jan 7, 2012 7:15am
Quoting dimitri
The floor 1.20 is still big question. Everyone says to make an intervention successfully, there is need to be done when no one is expecting that. Once the floor was set up, everyone expects the intervention. And second question how big gonna be the intervention at 1.20, 50 pips, 100 pips, 500 pips? If they do it small then attacking 1.20 will be holy grail for traders. SNB probably cannot intervene for any reason. So it must be big intervention to 1.30 and more otherwise we going back to parity and if Hildebrand was not fired for insider trading...
If they fail to do..the effect will likely same like the YEN
Bismillah
  • #2,145
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:04am Jan 7, 2012 9:04am
Just FYI & FWIW
http://www.lighthouseinvestmentmanag...19712-deja-vu/
Nothing is 100% !

IMO,
Though this time its quite different scenario (in many senses) and i quite believe in the resolve of SNB AFA peg is concerned(at least for now).....
the following cases will make EURCHF be kicked down quite much (may be even testing parity as first halt)
1) Current SNB Chairman resigns/removed & esp. when next chairman is not much aggressive with actions esp. relating to EURCHF Fx rate (more on other indirect ways) or does (2)
2) Any policy change regarding PEG (removing or lowering (unlikely) or something weird) around the time price testing the same... say in coming days if price is REALLy going for testing 1.2
3) Euro-zone breakup (unlikely before dec 21 2012...lol)
4) Major Euro-country Credit-rating downgrades. (france/germany)


Let's WnW
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #2,146
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:27am Jan 7, 2012 9:27am
Quoting werido
Of course they're happy with usd/chf but they intervened in eurchf which is what they care about most. Do you think they won't intervene again if their peg is challenged?
Of course they will. However, for now they have not really intervened other than for an hour or so on the first day. And even then, it could have been somebody other than the SNB soaking up the liquidity at 1.2000.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #2,147
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:55am Jan 7, 2012 9:55am
Quoting forexsaint
In reference to my previous post,
The 1st Target of 1.2150 is done.
I am not talking about news/fundi'es/undi'es trading here... but anyone buying it PURELY technically, on any TF's like H1 and H4 knows nothing about simple patterns, PA & prolly technical analysis as a whole! (Disclaimer: I am not a tech analysis zealot either)

Other important levels to watch for ...remain the same, as before.
Its HIGHLY worth-while watching PA around 1.2120 level!
Will keep TIGHT watch on news though !

Lets WnWatch
yes not a buy yet in faster timeframes that's for sure.
but pointing out that some one knows nothing about simple PA and price patterns sounds bit arrogant imo, since you are talking about a short in what already shown 3 -4 times as a strong demand area in daily chart!
ok, from 2180-90 a short appeared in h4 chart and euro was crashing yesterday, but also usdchf was breaking top 9550. pure luck if you ask me, coz usd chf didnt get well into 9600.....that's why eur chf lost those 40 pips!
so: my compliments to you for that! but personally i will only search for buy opportunity near 2100. by saying buy opportunity i mean an hourly pattern which confirm daily demand!
just to say....
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,148
  • Edited 10:55am Jan 7, 2012 10:45am | Edited 10:55am
Weekly sr to sr with breaks limit levels minimum play expected or more next week.
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd5.gif Size: 12 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #2,149
  • Jan 7, 2012 2:56pm Jan 7, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting fontu
Weekly sr to sr with breaks limit levels minimum play expected or more next week.
fontu

hello fontu i have a similar setup in my daily.
stronger zoom in i also get downtrend channel. here in red.
blue "falling wedge" is better seen in h4.
if price looses that blue falling wedge meaning a breake into 1.20 area,
would mean a very possible move near 1.2030 and 1.2000 SNB's floors.

if happens, price will probably meat that line together with bottom daily channel.

actually i still think this will not happen and i will search buy opportunity near 1.2100 until no candle closing below 1.2093
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,150
  • Edited 9:11pm Jan 7, 2012 8:59pm | Edited 9:11pm
Quoting _BBKing_
hello fontu i have a similar setup in my daily.
stronger zoom in i also get downtrend channel. here in red.
blue "falling wedge" is better seen in h4.
if price looses that blue falling wedge meaning a breake into 1.20 area,
would mean a very possible move near 1.2030 and 1.2000 SNB's floors.

if happens, price will probably meat that line together with bottom daily channel.

actually i still think this will not happen and i will search buy opportunity near 1.2100 until no candle closing below 1.2093
yes , it to move up & down through 1.20 perhaps & perhaps not that solid this level in coming days . if it breaks or not a spike likely/may not any intervention yet ( so can look a buy opportunity but to me just catch the spike opportunist scalping rather it a solid sell opportunity for those limit & weekly sr , daily ones not considering here for smaller moves ) before the fall below it.so next bottom range to spike up wedge top or breakout level before back down before week end may expect .same as pa plotted earlier , legs can be short or longer though .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #2,151
  • Jan 7, 2012 9:28pm Jan 7, 2012 9:28pm
I think ultimately the strong usdchf will move this pair up because now that the usd is strong in at least the short term, and much better than eur in mid term, it's a better place for eur to go than chf. chf is only good in europe but safe haven flow from usd will probably reverse.
  • #2,152
  • Edited 10:45pm Jan 7, 2012 9:57pm | Edited 10:45pm
Quoting werido
I think ultimately the strong usdchf will move this pair up because now that the usd is strong in at least the short term, and much better than eur in mid term, it's a better place for eur to go than chf. chf is only good in europe but safe haven flow from usd will probably reverse.
May be , potentiality remain intact but it to prove itself since not from 1990 & to the lattest 2007 then how can one believe that , price to prove it first to think at least remain upside 1.2145 now to intiate , break next 1.3064 minimum + to start doubt & go beyound 1.6850 to be done . Huge intervention after the intervention or great disaster to swiss itself rather ez bound may be in need to consider, so people like selling chf automatically usd remain in it's strongest bounce unlimited time .
considering world disaster in the economy in 2012 but the impact can't be consider yet .
lets see if 1.2145 can hold ultimately for long time in this year , not only now .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #2,153
  • Jan 8, 2012 2:57am Jan 8, 2012 2:57am
Quoting _BBKing_
yes not a buy yet in faster timeframes that's for sure.
but pointing out that some one knows nothing about simple PA and price patterns sounds bit arrogant imo, since you are talking about a short in what already shown 3 -4 times as a strong demand area in daily chart!
What arrogant? Why are you taking it personally? That too for 2nd time, even after EXPLANATORY post once before
1) Did i name you anywhere?
2) If I am talking about MY opinion, its mine! You have your own, third person has its own!
3) If i have a SHORT TERM bias towards shorts, that doesn't mean all people long right now or thinking to long " know nothing about PA and patterns"
Watch it next time. i won't be more courteous!

Everybody is free to post his/her views/opinion. You are too.. Just do not quote me, if you want to reply like this.
As simple as that!
Quoting _BBKing_
...so: my compliments to you for that! but personally i will only search for buy opportunity near 2100. by saying buy opportunity i mean an hourly pattern which confirm daily demand!
just to say....
I don't like compliments for bagging some 30 pips that too after some 2 days. I tell the FACTS! Thanks any way.

Over and Out!
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #2,154
  • Jan 8, 2012 4:59am Jan 8, 2012 4:59am
Quoting forexsaint
What arrogant? Why are you taking it personally? That too for 2nd time, even after EXPLANATORY post once before
1) Did i name you anywhere?
2) If I am talking about MY opinion, its mine! You have your own, third person has its own!
3) If i have a SHORT TERM bias towards shorts, that doesn't mean all people long right now or thinking to long " know nothing about PA and patterns"
Watch it next time. i won't be more courteous!

Everybody is free to post...

i was refered to this
Quoting forexsaint
In reference to my previous post,
The 1st Target of 1.2150 is done.
I am not talking about news/fundi'es/undi'es trading here... but anyone buying it PURELY technically, on any TF's like H1 and H4 knows nothing about simple patterns, PA & prolly technical analysis as a whole! (Disclaimer: I am not a tech analysis zealot either)

Other important levels to watch for ...remain the same, as before.
Its HIGHLY worth-while watching PA around 1.2120 level!
Will keep TIGHT watch on news though !

Lets WnWatch
mate, i didnt take it as personal! i have my method as everyone has one! i was surely not giving you any kind of offence or attack or teaching you nothing at all! sorry if it was sounding like that!!
i was simply pointing out that you are saying "looking for buy here means knowing nothing about simple patterns". while IMO that is if you are looking for hourly shorts, into/near a DAILY DEMAND AREA!
personally, what i see.... is a strong daily and weekly bullflag, and in weekly i see price above previous strong downward TLs! h4 is printing a falling wedge weaker than previous comming from 1.24: in last move there were a lot of profit taking maybe so pressure down was stronger, and now flows are waiting a clear sign from europe. if something change in european fundamentals, eur chf will fly very fast and high straight above 1.24 top.
so in this scenario shorts are good, ok! i never said that shorting is stupid and i gave you my compliments for you able to do, since im not!
but nothing will change my mind that here 21area until 1.20 is a perfect setup to search for longs to target above 1.24.
only a clear breake below 1.20 again will probably be a good reason for me to let eurchf run for a while and wait a good trade setup.

maybe we are saying the same thing, with a different trading experience.
you are able to read a short bias happening near 1.22 while me simply look at higher TF! surely you know eur chf better than me!
i repeat: sorry if i sounded offensive! was not my intentions!

im here every day to share with everybody!
and me first i could be highly wrong!!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,155
  • Jan 8, 2012 6:11am Jan 8, 2012 6:11am
Quoting _BBKing_
i was refered to this


mate, i didnt take it as personal! i have my method as everyone has one! i was surely not giving you any kind of offence or attack or teaching you nothing at all! sorry if it was sounding like that!!
i was simply pointing out that you are saying "looking for buy here means knowing nothing about simple patterns". while IMO that is if you are looking for hourly shorts, into/near a DAILY DEMAND AREA!
personally, what i see.... is a strong daily and weekly bullflag, and in weekly i see price above...
Cool brother & forexsaint .
we have nothing personal or anything rather seeking help from others in their free posts in this forum . problems are our language barrier with style of writings, what write actually not intended to mean & visversa.
there are supply demand everywhere & price relatively move up down also everywhere , no straight line. Forget anything please , feel free to post the views , we need all to correct ours .
happy weekend .
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #2,156
  • Jan 8, 2012 12:29pm Jan 8, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting fontu
Cool brother & forexsaint .
we have nothing personal or anything rather seeking help from others in their free posts in this forum . problems are our language barrier with style of writings, what write actually not intended to mean & visversa.
there are supply demand everywhere & price relatively move up down also everywhere , no straight line. Forget anything please , feel free to post the views , we need all to correct ours .
happy weekend .
sure!
i already forgot about!
sorry for waste of time
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,157
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:28am Jan 9, 2012 5:28am
Get ready guys
Chairman resigns

1.2120 ultimately just hit. Worth while watching PA here!
100 Fold Challenge->Interested? ->https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/32152
  • #2,158
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:38am Jan 9, 2012 5:38am
Swiss National Bank Chairman, Philipp Hildebrand, resigns with immediate effect

Effective immediately, Philipp Hildebrand is resigning from his office as Chairman of the
Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank.
He will make a statement on his decision at 3.15 pm in the conference room of the
Federal Parliament’s Media Centre, Bundesgasse 8, and will also make a number of
documents available.
  • #2,159
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:38am Jan 9, 2012 5:38am
So its good news or bad news?
  • #2,160
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:40am Jan 9, 2012 5:40am
Quoting multi888
So its good news or bad news?
seriously think she bought usd;s when she should not off .. i think
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