EurAnalysis | Page 913 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #18,241
  • Jan 8, 2012 7:48am Jan 8, 2012 7:48am
On Jan 20 German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in Rome before European Union Summit on Jan 30.
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #18,242
  • Jan 8, 2012 7:55am Jan 8, 2012 7:55am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
On Jan 20 German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in Rome before European Union Summit on Jan 30.
Thanks for the Information
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #18,243
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:02am Jan 8, 2012 8:02am
Quoting FXMindset
Thanks for the Information
Bro want to wish you 'New Year' but I think you have blocked that service anyway How are you bro..?
And btw congrats for your job in Philips
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #18,244
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:04am Jan 8, 2012 8:04am
Quoting bumapatria
ty it is absolutely novice to go short at support and buy at resistance - or go with the herd after the run is made because naturally when u do so, ure just too late , big traders take profits and go the other direction.
I hope your not explaining this because you think that is my thinking? I am rewriting my trade plan ATM, my entries will be based on confirmation of the 'fat moves.' Selling/buying (and scaling in) into momentum after levels/zones have been confirmed. Basically following the money and watching/responding to trigger and target levels/zones.

Quoting bumapatria
think of it this way. NFP releases or before it - prices rise (Gbp and gold) giving a head-fake that "traders know the result of NFP" - novices trade breakouts RIGHt when they happen and get fooled when price bangs south.
Yes, I agree, games are played in these moments. I choose to stay out of these environments as probability is skewed due to these 'games'.

Quoting bumapatria
Forex is a competitive business - we steal off of each other. greed and fear fuels profits and losses.
Perceive it as a competitive business or not, as long as you enter and exit with profit it doesn't really matter who takes the other side of your trade - the forex maket is so damn liquid, it's too simplistic to simply say 'the other trader on the other side of my trade is a loser' (if you are in profit). You and the other trader/s can both be profitable. Example, you enter for a small TF trade (1h) and close with a profit. The other trader/s are in for a week and exit with a profit.

Quoting bumapatria
Sam teaches whoever wants to learn because his darn courses cost 10k and above for the best course he's got. if he was a true trader he wouldnt go around teaching people AND trade - this business of his is also his money flow for profits and gains.
As cloggs said, any true trader would be too busy making money to teach retailers. Any why would a true trader reveal their edge?

There's no way I am going to ignore Sam's work. I just don't take all of what he says as gospel. I will carry on watching his vids (which could honestly be cut down by at least half the time) and reading his stuff.
  • #18,245
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:07am Jan 8, 2012 8:07am
wonderin how open would be for my long
price is already deviating from the standards by about 100+ pips. last time eu was retracing at the deviation of similar values.
price is t 161.8 ratio of previous retracement . oscillators showing divergence (no shit thts been going on for a long time LOL)

me is expect retracemnt to 2828-2890-2930 ; 3 levels marked with squares on de chart


volume climaxed at a mid range spread bar which may indicate buying due to a mid-lower wick that pushed prices higer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TIRED!!!.png Size: 67 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #18,246
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:08am Jan 8, 2012 8:08am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Bro want to wish you 'New Year' but I think you have blocked that service anyway How are you bro..?
And btw congrats for your job in Philips
Yeah,would be busy and Need to build their marketing structure first
Probably would be much swing here and there at forex now
for scalp in NY open only if allowed..Lol

Hope you are doing well mate,if there's anything you need help might try ask PT a guide


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #18,247
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:10am Jan 8, 2012 8:10am
Quoting Tyoon
I hope your not explaining this because you think that is my thinking? I am rewriting my trade plan ATM, my entries will be based on confirmation of the 'fat moves.' Selling/buying (and scaling in) into momentum after levels/zones have been confirmed. Basically following the money and watching/responding to trigger and target levels/zones.



Yes, I agree, games are played in these moments. I choose to stay out of these environments as probability is skewed due to these 'games'.



Perceive it as a competitive business or not, as long as you enter...

hey dude i dont mean he sucks and hes an ass he is good - i watched his videos in recommendation of many and i did find it helpful to my PA objectives of trading.

dotn get me wrong - He is not a bad prerson mate.

as about price and 2 traders i have no problem with that at al as well yes its so liquid u can almost profit with a coin flip (no joke, but screw it ill never try that).

u got good charts u got good ability - ull know what to do mate just keep on working at it! i hope ur rebuild goes well buddy

bumpa
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #18,248
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:12am Jan 8, 2012 8:12am
Quoting Tyoon
I have been studying Sam Seiden and there are some things he keeps saying that just doesn't make sense to me. He keeps talking about taking money from the novice traders that take the other side of your trades. He says the big traders try to look are where they can trap novice traders. For example, you need someone to buy at the top so you can get your short entries filled. In other words you need bad traders to give their money to you.

The first thing that doesn't make sense to me is this idea of big traders trapping small retail traders. The...
His use of the term novice trader is based on observation from his time at the CME. The larger traders have their orders already placed. When price moves back to those levels there are traders who will look for price to continue through based on whatever conventional indis they use. So the orders they place at those levels will be filled against the orders that already exist. These people he has labeled "novice" traders.

Another thing you have to take into consideration is he is talking about the futures market. Most true "large" players, be they banks or hedge funds, don't trade the futures. They trade directly on the spot market. That's not to say a lot of the large orders in the futures are not institutions, they are just not the JP Morgans, Citi, etc.

As far as trapping out small money, I think you have to take that with a grain of salt. These larger entities don't really care about the average retail trader. The average retail trader, even though they supposedly make up about 10% to 15% of the overall market, don't have the purchasing power to move price.

So basically no matter what labels he uses, what he is saying is we as small fry need to learn to ride on the coat tails of the major market movers.

Why is he teaching his method? I can't answer that. He does not openly solicit for OTA, although he does mention it, but the vast majority of information that is taught in OTA can be gleaned from the free information that he gives. Another point in his teaching his method is a quote by a very successful trader (I can't recall right now who it was): "I could print my trading system in the Sunday paper and most people would not follow it."

I know it probably sounds as if I'm defending Sam Seiden, but I'm not. I have never corresponded with him, I would never pay $10k for a course through OTA. What I am defending is a method that I've come to see as very sound and one that fits in very well with the system I use. I think this S/D method is very similar to tape reading, only put in a graphical format using charts.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #18,249
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:16am Jan 8, 2012 8:16am
Quoting bumapatria
hey dude i dont mean he sucks and hes an ass he is good - i watched his videos in recommendation of many and i did find it helpful to my PA objectives of trading.

dotn get me wrong - He is not a bad prerson mate.

as about price and 2 traders i have no problem with that at al as well yes its so liquid u can almost profit with a coin flip (no joke, but screw it ill never try that).

u got good charts u got good ability - ull know what to do mate just keep on working at it! i hope ur rebuild goes well buddy

bumpa
Hypothetically, I wonder what would happen if all retailers learned Seiden's way (which is getting increasingly popular by the day) and we all started buying/selling at S/D zones. That would surely f@ck up the market?

(BTW, I am in one of my argumentative/debatable moods atm )
  • #18,250
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:23am Jan 8, 2012 8:23am
Quoting Tyoon
Hypothetically, I wonder what would happen if all retailers learned Seiden's way (which is getting increasingly popular by the day) and we all started buying/selling at S/D zones. That would surely f@ck up the market?

(BTW, I am in one of my argumentative/debatable moods atm )
oh man that would suck lol everyone would just win




here is a pretty accurate forecast on a mirror cycle so far on eurusd daily - retrace?

its actually that point in 5000 that makes it all a mirror right now. observe Pa carefully it almost looks like a reflection point like looking at a mirror.

cycle now with PA - might invert if we go lower
enjoy the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dla.png Size: 36 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #18,251
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:45am Jan 8, 2012 8:45am
Quoting Tyoon
Hypothetically, I wonder what would happen if all retailers learned Seiden's way (which is getting increasingly popular by the day) and we all started buying/selling at S/D zones. That would surely f@ck up the market?

(BTW, I am in one of my argumentative/debatable moods atm )
the markets will just become more volatile at those zones.

people would stop buying and begin selling at those areas which would send the market into zig-zag range patterns

would be more predictable and the edge would be on speed execution until the big institutions would cluster their sells at demand where people would provide liquidity and then when people panicked as demand failed, then they would buy up, eventually things would be back to equilibrium and a new strategy would have to be devised
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #18,252
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:50am Jan 8, 2012 8:50am
some interesting charts, these are daily close clusters since inception
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: close prices.jpg Size: 88 KB


this displacement volatility since inception
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: displacement behavior.jpg Size: 225 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #18,253
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:53am Jan 8, 2012 8:53am
Quoting FXMindset
Yeah,would be busy and Need to build their marketing structure first
Probably would be much swing here and there at forex now
for scalp in NY open only if allowed..Lol

Hope you are doing well mate,if there's anything you need help might try ask PT a guide


Thanks
Good Luck bro...
Yeah I am good and about PT , he is a mentor for me because he is the first person who helped me in forex and I admire him a lot , in short he is the best
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #18,254
  • Jan 8, 2012 8:57am Jan 8, 2012 8:57am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Good Luck bro...
Yeah I am good and about PT , he is a mentor for me because he is the first person who helped me in forex and I admire him a lot , in short he is the best
Alhamdullilah
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #18,255
  • Jan 8, 2012 9:33am Jan 8, 2012 9:33am
Quoting the redlion
the markets will just become more volatile at those zones.

people would stop buying and begin selling at those areas which would send the market into zig-zag range patterns

would be more predictable and the edge would be on speed execution until the big institutions would cluster their sells at demand where people would provide liquidity and then when people panicked as demand failed, then they would buy up, eventually things would be back to equilibrium and a new strategy would have to be devised
Even if all retailers traded S/D, would that even make a difference? As stated before we provide only a small amount of liquidity. The real concern is if these bots are programmed to trade at S/D.
  • #18,256
  • Jan 8, 2012 9:37am Jan 8, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Tyoon
Even if all retailers traded S/D, would that even make a difference? As stated before we provide only a small amount of liquidity. The real concern is if these bots are programmed to trade at S/D.
we make up 10% of market share, i was envisioning a scenario where ALL market participants entered at S/D
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #18,257
  • Jan 8, 2012 9:49am Jan 8, 2012 9:49am
Quoting rekon67
I understand u Bro ... here is the hope...
Will remove my vouch for this.......smh..........
  • #18,258
  • Jan 8, 2012 9:55am Jan 8, 2012 9:55am
Quoting Tyoon
Even if all retailers traded S/D, would that even make a difference? As stated before we provide only a small amount of liquidity. The real concern is if these bots are programmed to trade at S/D.
My understanding of the bots, especially if they are similar to the one's used in the equity market, is that they use them to take advantage of discrepencies in the spread.

S/D as a trading method, whether used alone or in conjunction with other methods, is safe, as I'm not seeing retail traders flocking to this method. Just look at all the different threads and systems and methods here on FF. S/D is more "old school" and the tried and true methods of the past have basically fallen out of favour with the advent of the use of technology in trading. Not that this is a bad thing. For one it makes many of the old school methods work even better as traders move on to complex indicators or variations of "proven" indicators or whatever methods they look at in that ever continuing search for the "holy grail".
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #18,259
  • Jan 8, 2012 10:33am Jan 8, 2012 10:33am
Quoting spzd
My understanding of the bots, especially if they are similar to the one's used in the equity market, is that they use them to take advantage of discrepencies in the spread.

S/D as a trading method, whether used alone or in conjunction with other methods, is safe, as I'm not seeing retail traders flocking to this method. Just look at all the different threads and systems and methods here on FF. S/D is more "old school" and the tried and true methods of the past have basically fallen out of favour with the advent of the use of technology in...
Sound. I wonder how many systems or indicators were created for the sole purpose to distract traders from the reality of trading.
  • #18,260
  • Jan 8, 2012 10:54am Jan 8, 2012 10:54am
Quoting AmeriTrini
Will remove my vouch for this.......smh..........

May be the reason is this ... since I honor the idea of this thread so I am not using any bad words for you ... but may be you should utilize your time for something better ... something worth full ... please do not continue with this habit which spoils good ... better luck next time...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 27 KB
33 traders viewing now