EurAnalysis

I just noticed I can use other mt4 broker platform to login my fxopen account ... but this works in my PC ... in the windows mobile I am not able to edit the server drop-down ... but guess I got the way...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pDzzKLZTRn...amsung-tab.jpg

http://images.techtree.com/ttimages/...86703_scn1.jpg

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1325903098

1) yeah you can call them signals but they are not the real entries, they are moving average crosses indis that represent theirselfs as arrows and they are here in cesarnc thread some where, also in TEB63, fxhermit introduce them to me, I don't realy use them as signals, just a guide but they usualy work preaty well in this large TF, I just don't trade those big TF's, I use them as guide.......I trade the 30M chart with impulsive candles when 1H and 4H are in that direction, also keep and eye in daily and weekly as well, in another word you have to look at all TF's, one can be saying one thing and the other some ealse, the sinc of two or more time frames is what makes them move......

2) My guess that is going to 50% retrace is as good as yours or anybody ealse, and is just that, a guess, I don't try to guess that much when trading the 30M, I just react to the break outs when they happen, patience and reaction, depending on the sinc of the time frames, the position of the moving averages to mark the direction in that particualar moment of the market and enter with two bags, one to take and one to lose, that is all you can do with this manipulators market makers, if you guess more than 50% you win, I try not to follow the news too much or the trends in those big TF's, a trend is up or down until it is, until they deside to change it, so just follow the money is my best bet, if they go down I go down if they go up I go up, patience like I say and focus, but that is going to go to the 50% retrace is a just a guess, is being going down for a while now and it should correct itself but they can make it go much more down, remember they can stay irrational longer than your acc and that is what they do, they act irrational, if they see you are all long they go short and if they see everybody is long they go short, and beleive me they know...........hope this help, sorry for the rant to the other members of this thread, I just try to be polite and asnwer rekon67 questions, it look like he saw me on the bothom lurking true the thread, very nice thread by the way, congratulations, we don't get this serius over there in our part of the woods, have a wonderfull year trading all of you guys.......

Welcome chonchy! I am sure everybody here will love to have you .... have a prosperous new year ahead .. looking forward to have more resources coming from you

never mind,keep sharing and helping one each other for the better life

coming week...

if ure trying for a elliot wave count rek, the orthodox way is to put ur wave counts at the end of the wave rather than the start, but yes 2810 is a good place for an easy resistance retest short if PA really looks to retrace and not fully fledge reverse the trend

I was looking at your post with Resistance Points at 1.2820 and I was thinking about the movements heading into the Europe open. I take note of your chart and thoughts. To continue on the technical side I am looking at IFR Markets Trade Position as a further Technical Guide which shows they went short at 1.2724 on January 6, 2012 at 16:27. Their TARGET is at 1.2600 and their Stop is at 1.2775.

They show Hourly High at 1.2813 on January 6, 2012 and before that their Hourly S/R, Lower Boli is 1.2760. The Session Low is 1.2697 on January 6 and the Daily Low of September 13, 2011 is 1.2680 with 1.2642 being the Daily Low of September 10 and 1.2625 being the Daily Low of August 31.

I only posted all of this to show the points of reference that technical trader's are using.

At this exact moment I have no idea what will happen so I have a 100% open mind with no bias on the short term. There is a meeting on Monday, January 9, 2012 with Merkel and they will have something to say. I find usually Sunday nights are harder to trade as Asia does not really give a lead into what Europe will do unless Asia catches up with what happened on Friday in North America.

During the day I will watch for news items that might give me a hint of what might be going on that might affect the currencies.

I am sharing my mindset as I think about THINKING about my Trade Plan.

I put a few trades on in my Demo account on Friday morning to show a prospective client some trades at 1.27249 and 1.27157 and 1.27153. I will watch what happens and probably close them as soon as I can with a Maximum Stop Loss of 50 PIPS. That requires Discipline since otherwise I might risk further losses hoping it will go down. Knowing that is my Maximum Loss gives me Peace of Mind.

There is another point that I want to make here on demo accounts and real accounts. When I first started learning my trade I only traded demo accounts for 2 1/2 years. I had constant good results for most of that period yet I was not ready to risk one penny. I developed a mindset that trading demo funds or real funds was one and the same since I did not want to lose period. It was the mindset which still carries on today even when I use a demo account to show my skills. That in itself leads to an attitude that is healthy.

One of the most important thingsa in Forex Trading to learn is to control your risk and live to trade another day. One of the problems that I see trading small amounts of money is that it may lead to habits that would not occur trading a minimum account of $10,000 US.

All of my Demo accounts whether with Saxo Bank who had a $100,000 US Demo or Trade Station Two (FXCM) which has a $50,000 US funds Demo account lead me into certain different strategies that I still use today.

Since I just awoke and feel relaxed with no stress sitting here at my computer I will share my Money Management and Risk Management Strategy with everyone here.

Rather than explain it on the $50,000 Model which is the same as the $10,000 Model I will focus on the latter one for trading with Real Funds.

I will refer to the $50,000 US funds Model just to set up the parameters.

I NEVER trade more than 20% of my capital Demo or Real funds.

That allows for Drawdowns without risking a Margin Call. My MAXIMUM LOSS allowed on any Trade Plan is 5% of my capital.

On a $10,000 US account that is $500 US and on a $50,000 US account it is $2500 US.

You can see right away that I have more leeway on a $50,000 account and I will explain why in a moment. This goes with my strategy of scaling in my purchases long or trades short.

With a $50,000 US funds account using capital of $1000 US and Leverage of 100 to1 which is what I have used since my First Forex Trade in September 2003. I use a maximum of 5 Open Positions with the MAXIMUM STOP LOSS at 50 PIPS.

With a $10,000 US Dollars account Demo or Real (MINDSET AGAIN) I can only scale in Two Positions of $100,000 US.

It takes more patience and discipline trading a $10,000 US account than a $50,000 US account. Why is this ?

Go to the beginning of this post when I started talking about only technicals. Say that was my Goal POSTS...

The Key is to be PATIENT and get a good entry only in the Direction of the Trend. I determine the trend based on my short term view which can be as little as one week it all depends on Fundamentals and what I decide is the PERCEPTION of the markets at the moment.

I do NOT RELY on the Technicals since I KNOW 100% that the MONEY FLOW has to change the Charts as each Asset Class adjusts to the NEW Money flow which happens most of ALL starting In Europe at around 2:00 in the morning just before the Europe open at 3:00 AM EST (GMT + 5)

Then North America joins up around 7:00 AM EST with the North American Open at 9:30 AM EST and finally Europe goes home at 11:30 AM EST however I use NOON as my time to catch some late movements. This is in itself another Trade Experience POINT that I make now about closing of positions in Europe which if there is many shorts then I expect a POP because of short covering and that might give me a 30 Window in putting on a New Short. That leads to a VERY IMPORTANT POINT about Good Entry and Scaling in a trade. Since I use a 50 PIP Maximum loss getting good entry allows me to stay away from 50 PIP losses most of the time. Sometimes I close a trade in minutes based on the circumstances. If I got a good entry at London close and I have a quick 15 to 20 PIP in the money move I will either take the profit or set my NEW STOP just above a 15 or 20 PIP profit level thus locking in my profit yet allowing it to go lower and then every 10 to 15 PIPS or so lowering my Stops.

That is why I ALWAYS win on more of 75% of ALL my FX trades.

With Good Money Management like I just described and Risk Management of 5% on any Trade Plan and of course the BEST TRADE PLAN is NOT TO TRADE for the sake of trading unless you have an edge or know your Entry Point and just as IMPORTANT your Exit Strategy.

50 PIPS on any one trade is my Risk and that gives Peace of Mind which is very IMPORTANT in trading Forex.

If you can win 75% of your Trades with Good Money Management and Good Risk Management you can make a good constant monthly Return On Investment (ROI)

The knowledge and my EDGE using Money Flow gives me my excellent results.

The KEY word is ME since everyone of us is different with different skills, knowledge and discipline. Trading Experience is also important and that is usually the longer you can survive hopefully the more chance you will have to win at Forex and Join the 5% Group.

I really hope some of you will consider what I have said here and have a completely open mind to winning methods.

There is a reason that most lose trading Forex on the Retail Level.

Have a GREAT SUNDAY and a Good Trading Week...

Be Careful there is many unknowns this week and events unfolding will give us better insight about that. Just be aware of the bigger picture and the Political and Economic events ahead of us.

Thanks for reading my post...

Hope all is well for everyone!! Good luck with the new week...See yall @4am est sharp on Monday!

...........

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120108156891/

Snippet:

Weekly Review and Outlook

Euro Tumbled as the Year Started, More Downside to Come, Watch Italian Yield

During the early part of last week, the theme was buy risk and sell euro. Risk appetite was given a strong boost by global manufacturing data from China to UK to US. While Euro selling persisted, risk markets failed to extend rally even with a very solid employment report from US. Major stock indices did close the week up even though paring much of the earlier gains. Crude oil and gold both closed above key psychological level of 100 and 1600. The set back in risks looked corrective so far. We believe that markets have overshoot on the first day of the year and then consolidated. And traders are starting to be cautious ahead of the string of earning releases, starting from Alcoa on Monday, JP Morgan Chase on Friday and a bulk of S&P 500 companies in the weeks ahead. Hence, they're refusing to commit further yet.
Right before year end, we mentioned the anticipation of extended Euro weakness and favored Aussie. This turned out to be true with EUR/AUD diving to new record low. Eurozone's problem will continue to weigh on the common currency. ECB's three year LTRO seemed some what ineffective so far as banks continued to park record amount of fund back to the central bank. Italian 10 year yield closed above the unsustainable 7% level again. Italy will face the test of paying out EUR 100b in bond coupons and redemptions from January to April. Meanwhile, Spain's 10 year yields had the biggest weekly rise in almost 17 years and was getting closer to 6%. There are risk of downgrades from rating agencies that would happen any time. Euro would likely remain pressured, in particular if Italian 10 year yield move further higher above 7% level. ECB's meeting will be watched closely but it's unlikely that the bank would provide any sustainable boost to Euro.

The question is indeed on who will gain most against the common currency. Canadian dollar would be firm but last week's post job data selloff against dollar argues that markets are not too confident against the loonie based on the soft employment outlook. USD/JPY might has bottomed in near term after drawing support from 76.57. So, that left dollar and Aussie as two candidate to long against Euro. At this point, we'd still favor more upside in stocks with DOW heading through 12500 in near term for 12876 resistance. And in that case, Aussie and Kiwi should be the bigger winners.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=28503



Got Gold ?

Very Strong Convictions by Writer ?

We will see and hopefully it will NOT HAPPEN !!!

Snippet:

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been threatened with military action by the US and its allies for the last eight years.

Iran has been involved in war games in the Persian Gulf. The US Navy is deployed. Iran's naval exercises which commenced on December 24th were conducted in an area which is patrolled by the US Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain.

Meanwhile, a new round of economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran has been unleashed, largely targeting Iran's Central Bank, leading to a dramatic plunge of Iran's currency.
Reacting to US threats, Iran declared that it would consider blocking the shipment of oil through the Strait of Hormuz:

"Roughly 40 percent of the world's oil tanker shipments transit the strait daily, carrying 15.5 million barrels of Saudi, Iraqi, Iranian, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, Qatari and United Arab Emirates crude oil, leading the United States Energy Information Administration to label the Strait of Hormuz "the world's most important oil chokepoint." (John C.K. Daly, War Imminent in Strait of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil? Global Research, January 3, 2012)

The Globalization of War and the Demise of the American Republic
There is a symbiotic relationship between War and the Economic Crisis.

The planning of the Iran war is being carried out at the crossroads of a worldwide economic depression, which is conducive to widening social inequalities, mass unemployment and the impoverishment of large sectors of the world population.
Crushing social movements on the domestic front --including all forms of resistance to America's military agenda and its neoliberal economic policies-- is an integral part of the United States' hegemonic role Worldwide.
Does Constitutional Government in the eyes of the Obama Administration constitute an encroachment to "The Globalization of War"?
History tells us that an Empire cannot be built on the political foundations of a Republic.
In this regard, it should come as no surprise that the new Iran sanctions regime adopted by the US Congress became law on New Year's Eve, December 31st, on the same day Obama signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA 2012), which suspends civil liberties and allows for the "Indefinite Detention of Americans". (See Michel Chossudovsky, The Inauguration of Police State USA 2012. Obama Signs the “National Defense Authorization Act ", Global Research, January 1, 2012)
The Obama administration is intent upon crushing both social dissent as well as antiwar protest. The American Republic is incompatible with America's "long war". What is required is the instatement of a "democratic dictatorship", a de facto military rule in civilian cloths.
Thousands of Troops to Israel
Advanced war preparations are ongoing. Barely mentioned by the Western media, although confirmed by Israeli press reports, the Pentagon is preparing to send several thousand US troops to Israel.
In the context of ongoing war preparations, these troops are slated to participate in joint US-Israeli military maneuvers in Spring 2012, described by the Jerusalem Post as "the largest-ever missile defense exercise in [Israel's] history." (emphasis added)

I have been studying Sam Seiden and there are some things he keeps saying that just doesn't make sense to me. He keeps talking about taking money from the novice traders that take the other side of your trades. He says the big traders try to look are where they can trap novice traders. For example, you need someone to buy at the top so you can get your short entries filled. In other words you need bad traders to give their money to you.

The first thing that doesn't make sense to me is this idea of big traders trapping small retail traders. The volume of retail or novice traders is significantly too thin in comparison to the real money in the market. Why would the big money try to exploit the small money? The small money is too small to fill the orders of the big money. 70-80% of the liquidity is large funds and bots (I am probably underestimating that percentage). Why would they spend their time trying to trap out the small money when they have much larger fish to fry?

The idea that you need bad traders to take the other side of your trade is something else that doesn't make complete sense. Again these large orders that get placed are made in large quantity and most of the time they don't get fully filled because of the large demand (causing prices to rise) or supply (causing prices to fall), and can only get fully filled when price revisits these areas of supply and demand. The only participants that are going to fill the other side of these large orders are other large traders (funds). These large funds filling the other side of the order could be profit taking or entering in on a larger/smaller TF trade or entering/covering for other reasons. Yes the trader taking the other side of the trade can be in for a loss but that is not always the case.

If you need bad traders to take the other side of your orders then why is Sam teaching people how to trade?

If I have a gap in my knowledge that is causing me to come to these false conclusions perhaps you can correct me.

heres a motto i go by counter trending trading i made :

"Give me a rally and prices go higher, ill go short. Give me a Drop south and prices go cheaper, ill buy. "


ty it is absolutely novice to go short at support and buy at resistance - or go with the herd after the run is made because naturally when u do so, ure just too late , big traders take profits and go the other direction.

Ty 4 tril is flowing in this monster of a market named forex. say just 100 million is retail flow - just as an example. if u can cause 50% of them to go the wrong direction , 50 mil liquidity on ur end is not bad right?

think of it this way. NFP releases or before it - prices rise (Gbp and gold) giving a head-fake that "traders know the result of NFP" - novices trade breakouts RIGHt when they happen and get fooled when price bangs south.

Pros want to buy to remove weak buyers and go short. Pros short to remove weak sellers when they want to go long.

imagine those stop lsoses set to get hit and flow liquidity in the instrument and that is what helps them get money.

Forex is a competitive business - we steal off of each other. greed and fear fuels profits and losses.


Sam teaches whoever wants to learn because his darn courses cost 10k and above for the best course he's got. if he was a true trader he wouldnt go around teaching people AND trade - this business of his is also his money flow for profits and gains.

a true trader would not teach courses, by the least he'd write a book of his methods , but sam.. hes getting some cash there in OTA just by teaching

This is not Elliot wave count ... rather a very customized one from a trader's thread here in FF ... It takes count on very recent Up n Downs in Line Chart .. entry we take when 3rd wave breaks the horizontal line ... it is experimental so not goes by orthodox way ...

No offence

Welcome Sam ... Very clear chart and possible projection ...

Very well done chart

Just finished my supper...and my stomach so hurt