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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #297,001
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:12pm Jan 6, 2012 8:12pm
Quoting iqyu5an
let 2011 year candle talk ....

and we're watching it with cup of coffee in the weekend

no matter bull or bear ... just take it

how strong monthly candle ( march 2010 ) will handle this ......... ?

hello
yes noticed what you mean, 2010+2011 after 2008 n 2009 crash, could be 2 reversal candles.
if true, would confim also my previous post:
a reaction here in 53-54 or even lower 51-52 can happen for a strong up-move till above 1.67!
would be a nice summer!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #297,002
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:15pm Jan 6, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting _BBKing_
hello
yes noticed what you mean, 2010+2011 after 2008 n 2009 crash, could be 2 reversal candles.
if true, would confim also my previous post:
a reaction here in 53-54 or even lower 51-52 can happen for a strong up-move till above 1.67!
would be a nice summer!
I truly hope so.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #297,003
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:20pm Jan 6, 2012 8:20pm
Hey Pound Trader, you there?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #297,004
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:36pm Jan 6, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Why should USD gain strength due to good numbers? If I am correct, strong USD reflects risk off not risk on. Has something changed since the GFC? I don't trust news numbers at all, but do watch them as I find them humorous from time to time.
Doesn't good news cause prices to raise since there is more demand for the certain currency at a lower price?

Supply and demand?

I don't really follow the news but I'm watching the usd index and its gaining strength. Just my thought. So news might not be a factor
  • #297,005
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:52pm Jan 6, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting Dyekid217
Doesn't good news cause prices to raise since there is more demand for the certain currency at a lower price?

Supply and demand?

I don't really follow the news but I'm watching the usd index and its gaining strength. Just my thought. So news might not be a factor
Yep the dollar is gaining strength, no argument there but good economic news often creates a risk on sentiment so people need to sell currency. Opposite applies with bad economic outlook where people sell assets and rush to cash (aka the GFC) where the dollar soared in strength.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #297,006
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:54pm Jan 6, 2012 8:54pm
Ahh alright makes sense. Thank you for clearing that up for me!
  • #297,007
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:56pm Jan 6, 2012 8:56pm
Speculators Build Largest Net Short Euro Position Since 2007 - CFTC

COT broadened all over the place
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  • #297,008
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:06pm Jan 6, 2012 9:06pm
yea dude....... we never know bottom of demand zone ...


Quoting _BBKing_
hello
yes noticed what you mean, 2010+2011 after 2008 n 2009 crash, could be 2 reversal candles.
if true, would confim also my previous post:
a reaction here in 53-54 or even lower 51-52 can happen for a strong up-move till above 1.67!
would be a nice summer!
not euphoria follower
  • #297,009
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:43pm Jan 6, 2012 10:43pm
As traders bet against the euro, they also pulled their optimistic bets away from the dollar. The market held a net $15.5 billion position wagering that the dollar will appreciate, down 23% from the previous week (dixy chart in previous post).

Where much of that money (might) has gone is into the yen: speculators are betting a net $9.2 billion on a rise in the Japanese currency. That is a 154% increase from the previous week, or 56,481 contracts. That position represents the flip side of the market's desire to bet against the euro.

Traders were more optimistic about the Australian dollar this week, upping their optimistic bets by 46%. Speculators hold $4.8 billion in net bets in favor of the Australian dollar, making it the third-largest net position held against the dollar, after the euro and the yen.

As for gold speculators hold net long position 130,971 contracts.


To Fontu: it seems at this time we can not rely too much on the usual correlation.

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  • #297,010
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:07pm Jan 6, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting _BBKing_
looks bearish to me.
unless closes above 5440-50
I agree with you..
  • #297,011
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:37pm Jan 6, 2012 11:37pm
Quoting _BBKing_
i would like to share this thing.
i usually do this simply looking at charts and looking price beahviour near suport and resitances.

what i mean is:
if price goes below this area now, i will be ready to search possible reversal patterns.
because a reversal here would mean definetly to go for next level.
it happens in every timeframe.
Thanks ,yeah and sure to look for if any. the chart itself showing a bear set up for long time , never was any bull success in the history , that is bear not turned into bull yet & now from one d turning level trying just reach base only not continues as per bear continuation pattern or set up .so untill it proof itself turned bear into bull in the pa at least for timebeing ,it is purely bear & will not think any change in the scene .
better do it first .
and why may so early , base still far away.

anyway just trying see the logic for , thanks for analysis .
lets see
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #297,012
  • Edited Jan 7, 2012 2:43am Jan 6, 2012 11:59pm | Edited Jan 7, 2012 2:43am
Quoting Dyekid217
Doesn't good news cause prices to raise since there is more demand for the certain currency at a lower price?

Supply and demand?

I don't really follow the news but I'm watching the usd index and its gaining strength. Just my thought. So news might not be a factor
Good conception indeed.
I like it . Yes good/bad news do work , favours , damage & everything background back/blackdoor or what not I think but when there no alternative it can't consider any more .
see US good/great news accumulated for long time I think , lots many good news weekly but price not at all or rarely follow in favour, may be it itself favouring rest of the world to give some more time in prepare taking own exchange rate downside !!

but there limitation & have already fully matured /reached last limit level break & so must do or die usd for the next deep & profound reccession .

Supply/demand, support/resistance , all ma or divergences or any signal may work at times or not at all .

who will prefer this? even at cost of whole world again !
Good job usdx & you too .
carry on .
fontu
usdx chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post5275099

actually afraid when sees usdjpy , not that usdx or gold or other charts. may be 1 month more there to consider still before the real apprehension , suspected BOJ intervention last weekend or bounce , cashed some from long & hope more in coming month.
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #297,013
  • Jan 7, 2012 2:55am Jan 7, 2012 2:55am
Quoting nAVIN2007
I believe cable is in a long term uptrend it has to break below 1.5 to make me think otherwise ..its a 50% retrace swing retest of breakout point on monthly chart..i will send u a link to my long term charts so u can see more details

look at the 16 month chart i send u

Hi nAVIN
i'm a new guy pls tell me how to see the (look at the 16 month chart i send u) chart
  • #297,014
  • Jan 7, 2012 5:40am Jan 7, 2012 5:40am
As many here have noted dollar index breaking out to the upside and cable and euro looking heavy. Looks like we may be entering a trending market so I am only looking to sell cable. Pound strength I play by being short eur/gbp which looks like it is going to break much lower. the BOE will not fight to keep cable strong, like the Germans won't complain that their exports benefit from a lower euro. Yen looks like its going to get much stronger, market betting on MOF to waste tens of billions trying to stop it but it looks like they realise it would be pointless, and if the kamikazi won't go long euro I won't
  • #297,015
  • Jan 7, 2012 7:30am Jan 7, 2012 7:30am
Quoting Flatfish
As many here have noted dollar index breaking out to the upside and cable and euro looking heavy. Looks like we may be entering a trending market so I am only looking to sell cable. Pound strength I play by being short eur/gbp which looks like it is going to break much lower. the BOE will not fight to keep cable strong, like the Germans won't complain that their exports benefit from a lower euro. Yen looks like its going to get much stronger, market betting on MOF to waste tens of billions trying to stop it but it looks like they realise it would...

Have to completely agree with you. This is my weekly chart with my projections for the next 2 weeks.
rgds
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  • #297,016
  • Jan 7, 2012 10:42am Jan 7, 2012 10:42am
Quoting Flatfish
As many here have noted dollar index breaking out to the upside and cable and euro looking heavy. Looks like we may be entering a trending market so I am only looking to sell cable. Pound strength I play by being short eur/gbp which looks like it is going to break much lower. the BOE will not fight to keep cable strong, like the Germans won't complain that their exports benefit from a lower euro. Yen looks like its going to get much stronger, market betting on MOF to waste tens of billions trying to stop it but it looks like they realise it would...
i agree, where in a trending market
  • #297,017
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:45pm Jan 7, 2012 1:45pm
I also agree on that eurogbp short. The projection to the downside seems the largest out of all euro and Gbp pairs
  • #297,018
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:07pm Jan 7, 2012 3:07pm
gbp/usd has reached its lowest and bounced of t 1.5370 area lookin for reteracement to 1.5510 on monday newyork hours if u aint on a long i'd be worried ur money iz gone
  • #297,019
  • Jan 7, 2012 3:36pm Jan 7, 2012 3:36pm
Quoting rasula
gbp/usd has reached its lowest and bounced of t 1.5370 area lookin for reteracement to 1.5510 on monday newyork hours if u aint on a long i'd be worried ur money iz gone
this is exactly the kind of post that should be banned from a forum.
there is no sense in what you are saying, there is no reasoning, there is nothing technical which could ACTUALLY support your theory and also fundamental, since you can't know what price market will open tomorrow, you cant know what will happen monday and you cant even know what will happen in stock markets, market sentiment and every fukking thing which moves this fukkin crazy market.
if you are able to predict the future, then why you posted this bullshit knowing that i would have answered with this post???
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #297,020
  • Edited 4:11pm Jan 7, 2012 3:46pm | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting rasula
gbp/usd has reached its lowest and bounced of t 1.5370 area lookin for reteracement to 1.5510 on monday newyork hours if u aint on a long i'd be worried ur money iz gone

this is what you say seen in hourly chart:
1. 5435 strong weekly level you see in previous move what happened before price able to breake up
2. hourly downtrend channel.
3. 5460 strong rejection area broken during nfp. look past action to understand what that area means. (draw a fukking straight line and scroll the mouse wheel for some months and look h1 reaction at that level)
4. bottom of nearest bearflag where price crashed despite good services PMI and stopped 5460.
the 2 vertical lines are monday's NY session (14hours after opening price)
if you are long 5370 good for you if you closed before market closing.
but thinking now that price will be there in 14-18 hours... better you stop trading for a while and get some relax.
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