Dislikedmeanwhile,
im on a 'small' short in GU @5630.
large SL and large TP
hopefully we visit into 1.55 area so i will move stop @be.Ignored
Come with me if you want to live....
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #296,681
- Jan 4, 2012 2:30pm Jan 4, 2012 2:30pm
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Get to the Chopper | 17,905 Posts
Come with me if you want to live....
- #296,682
- Jan 4, 2012 2:31pm Jan 4, 2012 2:31pm
- Joined Dec 2007 | Status: mac daddy junior :) | 20,899 Posts
what happened today? euro fall again
- #296,683
- Jan 4, 2012 2:33pm Jan 4, 2012 2:33pm
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Inactive | 6,482 Posts
Talking about the Euro, is it possible that here at the start of a new year, the euro can just turn around and start a major move up?
This would be 100% against conventional thinking, and would defy all we know about a very sick market.
After all, the US dollar, as the world's sole reserve currency, is being widely touted by the experts as a come-back kid for 2012 (recall it had no friends at the lows!), several eurozone countries appear on the brink of defaulting and leaving the eurozone, and Germany appears less than willing to provide more bail-out funds. It appears to be a no-brainer trade.
But all is not what it seems (a common theme in the markets!).
As a contrarian, I have to ask: Is all the bad news already in the price?
After all, since November alone, the EUR/USD has fallen from $1.42 to the recent low of $1.2850 – a huge drop in two months.
This decline has been accompanied by the lopsided futures market holdings as revealed in the COT data as as of 27 December -
Hedge Funds (large)
45,000 Long
173,000 Short
Small traders
25,000 Long
54,000 Short
Speculators (total)
70,000 Long
228,000 Short
Commercial (banks, etc)
204,000 Long
47,000 Short
Can there be any more euro bears out there without positions who are needed to force the market lower?
Above, I asked the question: Is the euro turning around here? As a matter of fact, there is considerable precedence for major turns at year-end. Here is a revealing chart – it is the weekly chart going back to 2002:
The red arrows mark major turning points at year-end in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009 and 2010. In 2007, there was a continuation (yellow arrow), and in 2008, there was another continuation (yellow arrow) with the market making a major top a few months later (blue arrow).
It's uncanny, is it not? So, based upon just this observation, the odds definitely point to a probable turn here.
Just a thought
This would be 100% against conventional thinking, and would defy all we know about a very sick market.
After all, the US dollar, as the world's sole reserve currency, is being widely touted by the experts as a come-back kid for 2012 (recall it had no friends at the lows!), several eurozone countries appear on the brink of defaulting and leaving the eurozone, and Germany appears less than willing to provide more bail-out funds. It appears to be a no-brainer trade.
But all is not what it seems (a common theme in the markets!).
As a contrarian, I have to ask: Is all the bad news already in the price?
After all, since November alone, the EUR/USD has fallen from $1.42 to the recent low of $1.2850 – a huge drop in two months.
This decline has been accompanied by the lopsided futures market holdings as revealed in the COT data as as of 27 December -
Hedge Funds (large)
45,000 Long
173,000 Short
Small traders
25,000 Long
54,000 Short
Speculators (total)
70,000 Long
228,000 Short
Commercial (banks, etc)
204,000 Long
47,000 Short
Can there be any more euro bears out there without positions who are needed to force the market lower?
Above, I asked the question: Is the euro turning around here? As a matter of fact, there is considerable precedence for major turns at year-end. Here is a revealing chart – it is the weekly chart going back to 2002:
The red arrows mark major turning points at year-end in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009 and 2010. In 2007, there was a continuation (yellow arrow), and in 2008, there was another continuation (yellow arrow) with the market making a major top a few months later (blue arrow).
It's uncanny, is it not? So, based upon just this observation, the odds definitely point to a probable turn here.
Just a thought
- #296,684
- Jan 4, 2012 2:33pm Jan 4, 2012 2:33pm
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Get to the Chopper | 17,905 Posts
Come with me if you want to live....
- #296,685
- Jan 4, 2012 2:36pm Jan 4, 2012 2:36pm
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Inactive | 6,482 Posts
TIL 1.62
I see you had a similar post stating a buy in EU with a target of 1.38.
I hope you liked my contrarian post
Best regards,
Brian
- #296,686
- Jan 4, 2012 2:58pm Jan 4, 2012 2:58pm
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Get to the Chopper | 17,905 Posts
what happened today? euro fall again
Come with me if you want to live....
- #296,689
- Jan 4, 2012 3:36pm Jan 4, 2012 3:36pm
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Get to the Chopper | 17,905 Posts
Come with me if you want to live....
- #296,690
- Jan 4, 2012 4:01pm Jan 4, 2012 4:01pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
Hey BB, I've only been trading a short while compared to most here, but thinking if we break 5670, likely to get to 5730ish. Is your stop above there? What are your thoughts?
well,
actually my stop loss is 5960. there i will loose less than 5% of account.
target is 5130 where i will get around 7% of account if filled.
ok i agree: loosing now the 56 area to go into 57 will put my trade in trouble so maybe will close it in loss.
certainly if i see more than 5780 in an uptrend will click the 'close button'.
im ready to hedge it! its a small one im totally not worried about it!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #296,691
- Jan 4, 2012 4:11pm Jan 4, 2012 4:11pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #296,693
- Jan 4, 2012 4:37pm Jan 4, 2012 4:37pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #296,696
- Jan 4, 2012 4:54pm Jan 4, 2012 4:54pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
I like GZ and GC the volume tells me up but GA doesn't. Today was high volume and it might be saying that AUD isn't ready to be sold yet.
Let's see
edit: AU also tried to close above daily open, so bulls are there still. May need distribution still. I don't see a sell yet.
i hope you are wrong!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #296,697
- Jan 4, 2012 5:08pm Jan 4, 2012 5:08pm
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Inactive | 6,482 Posts
anyway
this could quickly invalidate my trade.
not the chart's colors.
the perfect hourly rising channel.
and again: i was testing a new platform, where as always there were no indicators and nothing around price.
just to let you know.... this is the first thing i noticed opening the GU h1 chart.
Keep the charts clean and price will jump out at you!
So what is your next move? I know what mine is!
- #296,698
- Jan 4, 2012 5:14pm Jan 4, 2012 5:14pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
Exactly what I have got on my h1
Keep the charts clean and price will jump out at you!
So what is your next move? I know what mine is!
lol
but now stop is @be.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #296,699
- Jan 4, 2012 5:18pm Jan 4, 2012 5:18pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
then if goes clear 5660 possible buy
else if goes down im already short, will probably add if cleared 5580
else if goes down im already short, will probably add if cleared 5580
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #296,700
- Jan 4, 2012 5:24pm Jan 4, 2012 5:24pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction