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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #296,661
  • Edited 9:58am Jan 4, 2012 9:43am | Edited 9:58am
Quoting PoundTrader
i have my caculator with me, navin knows 99% of my system is base on math, the other 1% i need to be at my computer becasue it's a desktop software thats install on my computer. any way good luck with your trading.
So if I asked you how you came to the calculation that determined you to come to the following conclusion -

Quoting PoundTrader
key level here at the moment is 1.5620, if market close below then we can expect a climb back up, if it close above that we might see a big fall into thursday. again im like a blind man trading here.
Would you need the software on your desktop to come up with the answer? If so, I will patiently upon your return which I am assuming will be by Sunday open?
  • #296,662
  • Jan 4, 2012 9:50am Jan 4, 2012 9:50am
still possible a weekly move to 1.53 (or more to 1.51)
definetly need to go out of this 5350-5780 range, or will it stay here forever?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 22 KB
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  • #296,663
  • Jan 4, 2012 9:54am Jan 4, 2012 9:54am
Quoting bguguen
hmmm you are right about the squeeze word but if i am having short on GU and its giving me a hell of a drawdown... to me thats a good squeeze having me suffer from a bit of drawdown...
The bulls are giving you the squeeze instead... lol.

Usually EU and GU are in sync for most of the time, but since the Cameron's veto, EG has been bearish ever since.

That tells me the story that money is flowing out of the Euro and into Sterling because of the uncertainty in the EZ.

Even though the UK could also be heading to another recession (double-dip), I still think Sterling will hold up. What happened last time BoE announced another round of QE on the 8th October? The initial reaction was a massive 220 pip drop and then a 900 pip rally!

Daily shows we are ranging here, so a drop from here is not unfeasible, that is for sure!

Wish you much success with those shorts!
  • #296,664
  • Jan 4, 2012 9:57am Jan 4, 2012 9:57am
Quoting _BBKing_
still possible a weekly move to 1.53 (or more to 1.51)
definetly need to go out of this 5350-5780 range, or will it stay here forever?
It will break out... 2nd or 3rd week in January, maybe with a fakey first! What do I know!!??

Home time... catch you all laters!
  • #296,665
  • Jan 4, 2012 10:09am Jan 4, 2012 10:09am
Quoting bbakker
It will break out... 2nd or 3rd week in January, maybe with a fakey first! What do I know!!??

Home time... catch you all laters!
i feel like it will crash down to 5160.
who knows?!
actually looks like 50% - 50%

surely until below 5780 bears are in play and will try to stone it down
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  • #296,666
  • Jan 4, 2012 10:12am Jan 4, 2012 10:12am
Quoting bbakker
So if I asked you how you came to the calculation that determined you to come to the following conclusion -



Would you need the software on your desktop to come up with the answer? If so, I will patiently upon your return which I am assuming will be by Sunday open?
hehe my first guess at it was, if he is talking about closes, lets look at Opens.. a close in that area, would mean a DOJI for the day.
  • #296,667
  • Jan 4, 2012 10:19am Jan 4, 2012 10:19am
Quoting _BBKing_
i simply think euro is being hammered heavy vs usd.
gbp and aud holding very well actually but day not ended yet.

i see impressive up move in gbp chf and usd chf.
eur chf stopped here 2190.

now: what da hell is moving euro so furiously down?
Euro banks being stripped of their deposits?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #296,668
  • Jan 4, 2012 10:31am Jan 4, 2012 10:31am
GBPUSD :

Gartly Pattern
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 02.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #296,669
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:03am Jan 4, 2012 11:03am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Euro banks being stripped of their deposits?
finally, i think it is somthing directly linked with france aaa rating.

today only euro tambled.
gbp hold very well.
also aud.

everything in europe stoned down, cac40 dax etc...

possible it was fear of france downgrade and sell off of everything concerned.
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  • #296,670
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:08am Jan 4, 2012 11:08am
meanwhile,
im on a 'small' short in GU @5630.
large SL and large TP

hopefully we visit into 1.55 area so i will move stop @be.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #296,671
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:17am Jan 4, 2012 11:17am
Quoting _BBKing_
finally, i think it is somthing directly linked with france aaa rating.

today only euro tambled.
gbp hold very well.
also aud.

everything in europe stoned down, cac40 dax etc...

possible it was fear of france downgrade and sell off of everything concerned.
You missed the most important fundamental news article that I had posted this morning through the clever links as follows -

Quoting bbakker
The ECB lent money in the form of LTRO to the EZ banks to buy the bonds, although it seems that they are not buying them, which will leave the ECB to keep buying them, like they have done before although sanitising these purchases is becoming increasingly difficult and hence it results in backdoor QE for the EZ. The German 10 yr bund sale...
The second link 'not buying them' is the key here. What are the EZ banks doing? They have borrowed nearly half a trillion Euros at a cheap rate of 1% and then putting it straight back with the ECB earning them 0.25%. This is a negative return! Now why would the EZ banks do this when they could lend out the money for positive returns like they normally do?

The reason is simple... interbank lending has completely dried up because the banks do not trust each other any more in case one of them goes bankrupt. Without the ECB providing the extra liquidity in the last few months through LTROs, we would have already have a few more BANKruptcies. The markets are nervous of EZ because right now, it won't take much for another financial meltdown.

From a technical point of view, we were also at daily supply this morning.
  • #296,672
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:24am Jan 4, 2012 11:24am
Quoting bbakker
The bulls are giving you the squeeze instead... lol.

Usually EU and GU are in sync for most of the time, but since the Cameron's veto, EG has been bearish ever since.

That tells me the story that money is flowing out of the Euro and into Sterling because of the uncertainty in the EZ.

Even though the UK could also be heading to another recession (double-dip), I still think Sterling will hold up. What happened last time BoE announced another round of QE on the 8th October? The initial reaction was a massive 220 pip drop and then a 900 pip rally!...
Actually my view on EURO is yes ultimately some countries may exit and this may be bad but if the EURO makes a shock fiscal union and gets things sorted out then shorting EURGBP would be a bad bad idea, simply because the brits will get really hammered while EURO rally's up a much stronger union and the Brits may face a problem if this happens, Europe could end up banishing the brits from the EURO if the EURO is sorted
i know this all sounds absurd but given the current situation if the market were to favor the EURO on sorting out itself the brits will falter... theres really nothing much the EURO needs from the brits as of late... German productivity surpassed the Brits anyways...

Anyways im more of a Pro-Emerging Market trader sooo im holding very little europe and american assets, im quite heavily invested on some companies in China, Vietnam is also an interesting prospect for me...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #296,673
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:34am Jan 4, 2012 11:34am
Hmmm... 5730 still on the cards? Funny thing the forex
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #296,674
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:43am Jan 4, 2012 11:43am
kinda wird place right now, this is my analysis lemme know what you think.

the gbp had a nice rally but we can see major resistance around the 5680 area, and it will break the trend line at 5580, so a 100 pip gap i am gonna wait for before i decide to do anything. my sentiment would be shortting at either end of the lines, but we will have to see what it does at each pivot. i good high test bar and reversal at 5680 means im probably gonna short it, and if it break through the 5580 with momentum, give a little retrace up and back down then im short

--would attach the graph with my lines on it but i have no idea how to lol--
  • #296,675
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:53am Jan 4, 2012 11:53am
Quoting bguguen
Actually my view on EURO is yes ultimately some countries may exit and this may be bad...
Would it be bad? What if Greece were to leave the Euro which they stated would be a real possibility if they did not get the next tranch of monies (130bn Euros). Initially EU would go down, no doubt about that. But it does leave the remaining Euro countries in a better position. If Ireland, Italy and Spain left too, the remaining Euro countries of Germany, France, Benelux and others would make the currency stronger because all the weak countries have gone back to their own currency in the Drachma, Punt, Lira and Peseta. The only risk is that the Euro will be dropped by all the other EZ countries too, but I cannot see this happening.

Quoting bguguen
...the Brits may face a problem if this happens, Europe could end up banishing the brits from the EURO if the EURO is sorted...
This will never happen either unless Britain decides to reject EZ, but they won't. The UK is a very important economy for Europe and they would much prefer to see them in then out. Banishing Brits is not going to happen, I can assure you that! Right now, the UK are sitting on their hands with regards to Europe. Why join a ship that is currently heading for an iceberg while they rearrange the deck chairs to try and steer the ship off course! Once the financial crises in the EZ is over, they will seriously look into joining EZ.

Anyway, being the odd one out never harmed Switerland!

Quoting bguguen
...German productivity surpassed the Brits anyways...
Always has and always will, but I don't see what this adds to the argument of banishing Brits.

Quoting bguguen
...Anyways im more of a Pro-Emerging Market trader sooo im holding very little europe and american assets, im quite heavily invested on some companies in China, Vietnam is also an interesting prospect for me.
The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries will be the rising performing stars over the next 20-30 years, once the financial meltdown has passed. I am not too fiscally and economically familiar with Asian countries such as Vietnam, but certainly my pension is in Global, Asian and BRIC funds.
  • #296,676
  • Jan 4, 2012 12:07pm Jan 4, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting bbakker
Would it be bad? What if Greece were to leave the Euro which they stated would be a real possibility if they did not get the next tranch of monies (130bn Euros). Initially EU would go down, no doubt about that. But it does leave the remaining Euro countries in a better position. If Ireland, Italy and Spain left too, the remaining Euro countries of Germany, France, Benelux and others would make the currency stronger because all the weak countries have gone back to their own currency in the Drachma, Punt, Lira and Peseta. The only risk is that...
Heres what im worried about for the Eurozone if Greece or any of the PIIGS leaves the EURO...
if greece leaves euro and goes back to the drachma, they would devalue the dragma to restimulate growth in greece (pure economics, not gona go in details) but if drachma gets devalued surely it gets even harder to repay the debt to the countries whos lended greece these money... in fact under drachma, greece alone may never repay the debt at the existing values...

if Greece exits meant debts are written off... thats a huge hit to France, germany and others, you'll probably see investment banks in france shutting down if that happens goodbye societe generale, bundesbank, bnp paribas... all gone...
Euro will slip into some serious trouble if that happens...

personally the only way i see a way out for EURO has to come from foreign aid which is backed my a secure unified fiscal policy in europe to attract these help from abroad...
i guess 2012 is all about having a unified fiscal policy and not just talks then... maybe time to put it into action...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #296,677
  • Jan 4, 2012 12:14pm Jan 4, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting bbakker
You missed the most important fundamental news article that I had posted this morning through the clever links as follows -



The second link 'not buying them' is the key here. What are the EZ banks doing? They have borrowed nearly half a trillion Euros at a cheap rate of 1% and then putting it straight back with the ECB earning them 0.25%. This is a negative return! Now why would the EZ banks do this when they could lend out the money for positive returns like they normally...
yes i missed it!!!
my bad!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #296,678
  • Jan 4, 2012 12:20pm Jan 4, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting bguguen
Heres what im worried about for the Eurozone if Greece or any of the PIIGS leaves the EURO...
if greece leaves euro and goes back to the drachma, they would devalue the dragma to restimulate growth in greece (pure economics, not gona go in details) but if drachma gets devalued surely it gets even harder to repay the debt to the countries whos lended greece these money... in fact under drachma, greece alone may never repay the debt at the existing values...

if Greece exits meant debts are written off... thats a huge hit to France, germany and...
EZ politicians only talk and do little action because the number of members involved make it almost impossible to come to a unanimous agreement. Plenty of evidence of this in 2011.

Greece has already wiped 50% of their debt (hairline cut.... more like sliced in half!), although they still need to implement further austerity to get this cut. For sure, if Greece were to go back to the Drachma, their currrency would be devalued and the existing Euro debts would balloon, causing them even more headache, so the act of leaving the Euro will not be taken lightly.

There is one more way of solving the issue without foreign aid and something which the ECB have been doing recently in a roundabout way and that is to print more Euros.

There is no easy solution and it will probably take many different initiatives to sort it out with a combination of printing Euros and receiving external aid, but it is clear that the West is bankrupt including the US, UK and Japan as we gorged on cheap credit. It all goes back to the central banks of this world that were pressured for consistent growth while trying to fight off recessions in the last decade. Loose monetary policy meant that they were storing it up for a massive financial meltdown that we are seeing today and very similar to the one in the 1930s. History has a funny way of repeating itself, because we never learn from our mistakes!
  • #296,679
  • Jan 4, 2012 12:22pm Jan 4, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting _BBKing_
yes i missed it!!!
my bad!
Like Pokemon, you can't catch them all!
  • #296,680
  • Jan 4, 2012 12:26pm Jan 4, 2012 12:26pm
TIL 1.62
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