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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #2,101
  • Dec 1, 2011 4:39am Dec 1, 2011 4:39am
Shorted Usd-Chf...entered with a small position as I felt it could snap back at any minute. Got a few pips before closing and standing on the sidelines to observe objectively.

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,102
  • Dec 1, 2011 6:48am Dec 1, 2011 6:48am
At the moment nothing trending too wonderfully per H1. Scalping opportunities also seem to be hard work to grab some pips. Dollar/Yen is tight and flat. Could mean an explosive move, but when and which way. US news out this morning. Patience I guess.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,103
  • Edited 9:29pm Dec 1, 2011 11:07am | Edited 9:29pm
Sent a signal this morning on Usd-Chf before the news at 10:00 am EST. After much roll around along the ML, price eventually made it. Target was at the green U-MLH...mentioned in the comments in the signal email. Price actually went to the region of the 2nd WL and turned almost on a dime there.

The first trade was a small position to test the waters. After the dealer fade (the long tail candle) and/or the taking of some stops, then came the move up.

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,104
  • Edited 7:01am Dec 3, 2011 6:47am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Sent a signal this morning on Usd-Chf before the news at 10:00 am EST. After much roll around along the ML, price eventually made it. Target was at the green U-MLH...mentioned in the comments in the signal email. Price actually went to the region of the 2nd WL and turned almost on a dime there.

The first trade was a small position to test the waters. After the dealer fade (the long tail candle) and/or the taking of some stops, then came the move up.

FX4
An additional comment on the target chart above: notice how price blasted through the green U-MLH? That type of price action could be considered a tell that higher ground was possibly in the making. Also better when you see it in real time so you can really gauge the momentum behind the move.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,105
  • Dec 4, 2011 9:42am Dec 4, 2011 9:42am
Hello traders,

Hope you all had a good weekend. The weekly wrap-ups of the pairs I follow on the blog are now posted.

Enjoy the rest of your "time-off" before things get going again.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,106
  • Dec 5, 2011 1:09am Dec 5, 2011 1:09am
Here is a pitchfork i drew. my question is ... Is this pitchfork correct ????

and i am going long and put TP at a price on the median line. Is this concept /theory correct ???
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I am the one and only profitable forex trader, but not the only one
  • #2,107
  • Edited 6:43am Dec 5, 2011 1:29am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting fx learner1
Here is a pitchfork i drew. my question is ... Is this pitchfork correct ????

and i am going long and put TP at a price on the median line. Is this concept /theory correct ???
Given the price action on the segment of the chart you have shown, which direction is price going..."trending"? That is always the first step: Market Structure. It would also help to look at more history of price action to see the context better.

Your pitchfork is "technically" drawn correctly. However, your Pivot 1 could also be moved to the low of the candle prior as it is a slightly lower low.

Yes, the general idea of forks is that the ML is a high probability target.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,108
  • Edited 11:22pm Dec 6, 2011 5:09am | Edited 11:22pm
Hello Traders,

Someone emailed me a while back asking what is my trading approach. I guess they meant my..."How do I...".

Well here is my sequence of events...

When I first come to my trading desk, I first look at my H1 charts to see what's there for the taking. I look to see how it is trending...is price taking out any highs or lows. I watch the "life" in the candles. If H1 is ready to go (from my fork analysis), then it could be a good 30 or 50 pip run to the ML. I usually enter off of the M5 time-frame. Yes, I have forks there too. (I use Dailies and Weeklies for the general idea and to see if there are any major turns that may be in the making).

Next I look to the H4. If that looks good too...like price is coming off support for example, then it could be a 100+ pipper (depending on the pair of course ). However, you need to decide in advance, what kind of trade/trader you are going to have/be. You don't want to start off with a swing trade in mind then decide in midstream that you'll position it. If you do, you just might find your stomach filled with butterflies when it starts pulling back on you (trading H4) and you can't hang. Then you'll get all emotional and mess up a good thing.

If H1 is flat, then it's M15-M5 time...scalp city (with forks) or momentum dancing (not a fork strategy).

Sometimes, I add a Fib Retracement or lagging indicator just to confirm my forks if things are not very clear to me...like using side mirrors when driving for fine-tuning when to change lanes.

Bottom Line: 1. You need to know why you're getting in or out where. 2. You need to know what you need to see from price to confirm that you are right, 'cause if PRICE doesn't agree with you and shows it, you need to rethink your move. 3. You need to know what you are going to do (decide in advance) if price does what you expected or does not do what you expected.

I am assuming that you understand that buyers are usually around Support and sellers around Resistance. Pitchfork Analysis provides possible S/R areas.

FX4

P.S. And if nothing looks good, it just might be bedtime or time to read.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,109
  • Dec 6, 2011 9:39am Dec 6, 2011 9:39am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Given the price action on the segment of the chart you have shown, which direction is price going..."trending"? That is always the first step: Market Structure. It would also help to look at more history of price action to see the context better.

Your pitchfork is "technically" drawn correctly. However, your Pivot 1 could also be moved to the low of the candle prior as it is a slightly lower low.

Yes, the general idea of forks is that the ML is a high probability target.

FX4
Still my order is pending.............. i think i should use a mini pitchfork
I am the one and only profitable forex trader, but not the only one
  • #2,110
  • Edited 12:19pm Dec 6, 2011 10:00am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting fx learner1
Still my order is pending.............. i think i should use a mini pitchfork
I believe you had a limit order in. Limits are not "guaranteed" to be filled. Seems to me like price went past your entry price, but if your exact limit price was not "reached", the broker is not responsible if it is not filled. A mini-fork is not the issue here.

FX4

EDIT: Went back to your chart. You had a buy order in place per your chart. Not sure what you meant by saying, "...still my order is pending...". Please explain.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,111
  • Edited Dec 7, 2011 4:35am Dec 6, 2011 10:37am | Edited Dec 7, 2011 4:35am
Shorting Usd-Chf at the moment. Not falling very easily despite all the long shadows "wicks" on the candles along the U-MLH. Notice how price is not falling too vertically either, but drifting toward the U-MLH. A Schiff might help. Expect that sellers "should" be able to take it at least to the green U-MLH. Being very nimble and flexible here.

The second chart shows where I closed with a few + pips. Notice how price drifted outside of the fork? Not interested in battling at this time of day....not even trying to go long (for a scalp).

Per H4, a Doji. Per H1...consolidation. Not interested now.

Did not send a signal on this one. A little late in the trading day.

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,112
  • Edited 1:29am Dec 8, 2011 1:16am | Edited 1:29am
Just closed a quick short on UsdChf. Entry was late...got in when I saw it. Opened the position because of the resistance area. Got out because I saw a bounce coming....didn't feel like getting caught in a fight. Price just touched the teal L-MLH. Will monitor. Might fall some more.

Please do not take this as a signal to trade.

Not sure why the images loaded that way. The initial trade is the second chart. Tried it twice. Will see if I can adjust it later.

FX4
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,113
  • Edited 1:15pm Dec 8, 2011 1:05pm | Edited 1:15pm
Quoting fx learner1
Still my order is pending.............. i think i should use a mini pitchfork
Apparently, your take profit did not trigger. My suggestion is that you do not put it exactly at your take profit line. Many times the broker/dealer won't let price go there, so your order stays in the market. Also, remember if you are buying, to close the trade, your order would close at the bid. So you need to make sure your take profit considers the bid price. So, make sure the bid price for your take profit on a buy is just shy of your expected target by a few pips.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,114
  • Dec 11, 2011 11:55am Dec 11, 2011 11:55am
Just popping in..weekly wrap-ups are now posted on the blog.

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,115
  • Dec 18, 2011 9:22am Dec 18, 2011 9:22am
Update...I should have the weekly wrap-ups posted by midnight EST tonight.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,116
  • Dec 26, 2011 8:56pm Dec 26, 2011 8:56pm
Hello traders,

I hope those of you who observed the Christmas holiday had a memorable one. I plan to resume posting my weekly wrap-ups on the blog after the New Year. Will be checking to see if there will be any decent action in the market by then.

Wishing that 2012 will be a trading year that you will not regret.

Take care and Happy New Year .


FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,117
  • Edited 10:00am Jan 2, 2012 7:00am | Edited 10:00am
Well traders,

We've crossed over into 2012 , but most are still celebrating today as well, as banks are still closed across the board. Plan to post my wrap-ups on the blog by midnight tonight EST. Let's see what kind of action we get during the London session. Hope there will be enough volume to minimize any effects of market manipulators. Time will tell though...no rush for sure .

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,118
  • Jan 2, 2012 9:47am Jan 2, 2012 9:47am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post5261374

that is my trading journal.... it would be my pleasure to see ur advisable tips and comments on that thread regarding my trading ( i am also using pitchfork )
I am the one and only profitable forex trader, but not the only one
  • #2,119
  • Edited 10:24am Jan 2, 2012 10:02am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting fx learner1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post5261374

that is my trading journal.... it would be my pleasure to see ur advisable tips and comments on that thread regarding my trading ( i am also using pitchfork )
It would be easier for me to help you (if that is what you'd like) if you post your charts and questions here. Will do what I can to post comments on your thread when possible.

All the best for the New Year!

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #2,120
  • Jan 2, 2012 11:20am Jan 2, 2012 11:20am
Quoting FX4Newbies
It would be easier for me to help you (if that is what you'd like) if you post your charts and questions here. Will do what I can to post comments on your thread when possible.

All the best for the New Year!

FX4

Thankyou.. I cant double post evrything here, because this ur trading journal not mine...

whenever u get a free time just check on my journal and leave a comment.

I am the one and only profitable forex trader, but not the only one
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