pitchfork trade journal

I'm trying to ressurect ancient system. Will post my trades here so I dont cheat on myself :.

here are the rules :

1. I use daily chart for this method.

2. Andrew Pitchfork TL bounce (as entry trigger)
Rules for drawing pitchfork is it has to be drawn between 3 fractal point, which is swing low/high and its retracement.

3. RSI 8 / MA of RSI (as momentum confirmation)
It's Fozzy method, its just that I don't use this as entry trigger)
- Only enter on long trigger, when RSI has crossed up recently / its above of its moving average (long sentiment shifted into winning battle)
- Only enter on short trigger, when RSI has crossed down recently / its below if its moving average (short sentiment shifted into winning battle)

4. SL & TP target.

SL = low/high of TL bounce pricebar (+ spread if on sell entry)
TP = is mid TL of pitchfork on the time of entry

I use position sizing for my entry amount, so no matter how many pips my SL is, percentage loss is set on 1% of equity available.
IF TP / SL less than 1.5, then I wont enter the trade.

I move my SL to breakeven + 1 pips when price has move in my trade direction around 2/3 of my SL lenght, this to avoid minor retracement stopping my trades.

21 Dec 06
buy 1.9578 SL 1.9555 TP 1.9840 (top of bollinger bands/last high)
Reward to Risk = 262 : 23

I moved my tp from 2.0050 to 1.9840 because 1.9858 is a few years new high, Expecting there will be difficulties to reach mid TL of pitchfork, I lowered my target.

SL has move to BE+1 . (traders anticipating for some US economic release today, possible to be stopped out if news is USD positive)

#1 trade stopped out at BE+1. previous pitchfork did not seem to able to hold up its lower TL

new downward pitchfork forming, and sellers seem holding out 1.9675-80 (upper TL) well defended. Since new pitchfork is too thin, RR is not good enough to enter trade.

will wait for another opportunity.

Greeting Dutdot,

I am reading your post, but I am on vacation right now.

I will study it in depth when I am near my charts, thanks for the strategy.

Monarch

You entered the long GBP/USD trade only one pip from the lowest price. The move up was 123 pips and strong, but then there was a retracement almost exactly to the entry price. Too bad. How did you manage to time the entry so precisely?

Good trading to you, and good cheer throughout the year! Peace and brotherhood among all men and women of goodwill.

not to scew up your thread, but if you were going to trade from the daily chart, why not look into the weekly chart for direction, or even a biger picture on the daily chart?


My daily shows a downtrend as well as the 4h

Actualy, my entry is right after price touching 0.618 retracement from previous day (18 and 19 dec) move up and is inline with lower pitchfork TL. When I see it defended well, I enter. not before the retracement happen

well, actualy this method is not about trend, but its about price channel. While trend can be see when we looking backward, valid pitchfork is suppose to be able to predict future price channel, at least the 1st 1-2-3 pattern. sometimes it even valid until completion of 5 waves.

It is possible to have 2 valid pitchfork, one pointing upward, and another pointing down. And this common "pitchfork battle" usually makes the "triangle pattern". There's hardly a way to see which channel wins, the bear or the bull , but it doesnt matter. As long as my entry is good, I'll be able to move sl to breakeven to minimize loss.


and I do watch bigger pitchfork setup, my long entry is at 19 november. it gained me Reward to Risk = 698 pips / 104 pips

I see, Also I take it you do not use a trailing stop, just a TP at mid point.

Is the reason to TP at mid point because this is where a retracement should take place?

And would this work on any TF, or is the Daily just the best choice?

TP at midpoint is just for simplicity sake on this thread, and to collect data on successful signal that reach midpoint. Old saying where I learn about pitchfork says 80% of the time price will reach midpoint. I wont believe that blindly, have to prove it by myself .

For the details, these are some exit scenario after pitchfork TL bounce happens :
1. price meets another pitchfork line, (X)
2. price entering 0.618/0.786 retracement area of B to C movement and meet strong barrier there. (Y)
3. price meets previous high and meet another barrier. (Z)
4. price goes to midpoint.
In these scenario on live trading, I should be able to move SL to BE and/or take partial profit before price goes against me.

Worst case scenario is, if I draw pitchfork wrong, or I enter BEFORE a bounce has happened, that could be a direct hit to stop loss.

Trade #2
Sell USD/CHF 1.2163 SL 1.2270 TP 1.1900
R/R = 1 : 2.5

TP is at previous swing low, not at midline PF, because theres a strong support around that area (dbl bottom). Daily RSI shows short momentum.

Trade #3
SELL USD/JPY 118.89 SL 119.23 TP 116.22
R/R = 1 : 7.5

TP is at mid PF & 618 retracement area

Trade #3

stopped out at be+1. not re entering trade. yen doesnt hold under 118.50

Trade #2
stopped out at be+1. Price getting nearer to PF upper TL. will see how this line played next cpl of day.

Other major pairs doesnt show a new channel formed yet or already moved too far inside existing channel.

USD/CHF has broke upper TL. could use Tom Demark TL projection to trade this. but since this not a journal about TDTL i wont put this trade in here.

Interesting setup on GBP/USD weekly and daily. Price has move to crossing point between 2 pitchfork prior to NFP release. Will se how market play this out, and enter after that.

After 3 month of using pitchfork I've decided to discontinue this journal. Because I've realize, while pitchfork itself works for projecting possibility of future price channel, using pitchfork only, it somehow less dynamic than the market itself.

The only thing left that important, is the RETEST itself. I mean now I can see retest everywhere, within fib levels, pivots, trendlines, moving averages, and I see them in other conventional trading method as in ma cross, support/resistance breakouts, vegas tunnels, and many other.
My charts has became indicator free. And my system has become simple :

1. buy at retest,
2. stoploss at 1st test price(ie when price hit support/resistance the 1st time),
3. take profit/partial profit at the opposite 1st test (nearest resistance/support)
4. count ratio between possible nearest tp levels : stoploss, if it fits good R/R, then enter.
5. use 1h 4h daily and weekly chart on the same pair, to see if there is another possible dynamic support/resistance that can hinder price movement. Long timeframe chart more valid then shorter one.

And somehow, I think I'm beginning to understand whats james trying to say in his thread