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Trading Made Simple for Day Charts

  • #101
  • Edited 7:05am Jan 1, 2012 6:40am | Edited 7:05am
Thanks for the 'heads up' Britpip7.

I will add my comments to your list below. Please see my comments in blue...

AUD/CAD - Long trade active since Friday afternoon. I will discuss this in a separate post to follow.

A/U - possible break to the upside - Fractal Up break / TDI strong cross / TMS Osc green for day and week / RSI(10) above 50. Yes I like the look of this one too. Will review at the open of next candle and decide if I will enter or not. Similar look to AUD/CAD.

CAD/CHF - no set up yet but based on divergence this pair is on my watch list for a short. I would be looking for at least 200 pips here.

E/U - sitting on a strong support line for the past 12 days - something has to give at some point. No signal yet.

NZ/U - similar to A/U as usual - Agreed and similar look to AUD/CAD too.

GB/NZ - possible Fractal Low break - TDI has bounced / TMS OSC red for day and week / RSI(10) below 50 - If the Fractal Low break does not occur watch for reversal signals. I am wary of this one... there is divergence between price and the indicators and I expect a move long.

GB/J - similar to GB/NZ - I don't have the confidence yet to trade the 'Ninja Beast'!

AU/CH - possible divergence PA to TDI - waiting for possible reversal - sadly do not have this pair on the Oanda MT4 platform!

The rest of the pairs are already into trend runs or are seriously ranging - so, worth watching the trending pairs for a pause / fractal break - some of these are getting into OB / OS areas so be careful with new entries - maybe go for smaller profit targets. Agreed. In a number of cases entries were signalled 3 - 5 days ago and there have been decent moves as a result. Time for patience to wait for new and solid set ups.
  • #102
  • Jan 1, 2012 7:42am Jan 1, 2012 7:42am
I know that I said I would review this pair on Monday before deciding to enter but then reconsidered and took the trade after price broke the high of the previous day. (Currently +36 pips).

The lower chart shows the entry (blue triangle).

The first chart shows my expected targets and stop loss movements for this trade.

I expect a Risk/Reward ratio of -100:260 which is reasonable. I stand to lose 100 pips if this trade goes against me from the outset (assuming nothing over the weekend caused AUD to weaken against CAD!)

As mentioned before I have no previous experience trading daily charts and hence the profit targets/ stop loss management is untested. I am also working on very different exit procedure and will share that if it works. Let's use this for now.

Let's see what the new week brings. I will edit this post with updates throught the life of the trade.
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Attached Image
  • #103
  • Jan 1, 2012 8:36am Jan 1, 2012 8:36am
Quoting Britpip7
Depends on whether the pull back continues. I would wait for it to break the previous day high - set initial TP to the next fractal levels - 150 pips and if it breaks through it may keep running back to the previous trading range.
On the short trade I would have waited for the Green TDI to have crossed below the 50 level before I took the trade - same on a long trade (above 50).
Interested in others opinion.
  • #104
  • Jan 1, 2012 9:34am Jan 1, 2012 9:34am
Quoting ramses2
EURCHF seems to be turning down now. it traded in a range more than 4 months and hitting the support now. Does any one check the probability of this pair?
Hi ramses2

I have this pair on my list. I see the following:

  1. Overall trend is short (weekly chart)
  2. Last entry signal (short) was 4 days ago
  3. There is divergence between price and indicators on the daily chart and I expect a retrace (long) to take place in the next few days.

Thanks

  • #105
  • Jan 1, 2012 9:44am Jan 1, 2012 9:44am
Quoting fxjourney
Hi ramses2

I have this pair on my list. I see the following:

  1. Overall trend is short (weekly chart)
  2. Last entry signal (short) was 4 days ago
  3. There is divergence between price and indicators on the daily chart and I expect a retrace (long) to take place in the next few days.

Thanks

Waiting to get on board this baby,she will be coming down real soon IMO
  • #106
  • Jan 1, 2012 10:46am Jan 1, 2012 10:46am
Quoting Tedge UK


Waiting to get on board this baby,she will be coming down real soon IMO
SNB have vowed not to let EUR/CHF go under 1.20 and price at the moment is sat on solid support. Maybe better off waiting for a buy signal in my opinion.
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  • #107
  • Jan 1, 2012 10:55am Jan 1, 2012 10:55am
Quoting tomthepoppop
On the short trade I would have waited for the Green TDI to have crossed below the 50 level before I took the trade - same on a long trade (above 50).
Interested in others opinion.
I thought that if the TDI had a good angle for a short entry then it is ok to enter above the 50 level. If the 50 level is pierced then one can assume a more powerful downtrend is in place. But I may wrong. And obviously the opposite for long.
  • #108
  • Jan 1, 2012 11:13am Jan 1, 2012 11:13am
I think people are making up their own strategies as they go along here. The entry and exit rules are based on Eelfranz's original system here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=291622 only difference is we are using a daily time frame.
  • #109
  • Jan 1, 2012 11:32am Jan 1, 2012 11:32am
Well its 2012.I really been slacking off on my chart study and what not but im going back in this year.I got a goal to reach.
  • #110
  • Jan 1, 2012 11:42am Jan 1, 2012 11:42am
I agree with Wilf on the various strategies.

Looks like we have a variation of "The 5 Method", "Trading Made Simple", "Dean Malone", etc.

I would like to keep this to the TDI entry criteria from the TMS thread - nothing that I have seen so far seems to improve the success rates / probabilities.

If your trading methodology is working, then carry on using it - you need to find and perfect your style. Some kind soul did pull together all of Big E's and dcginc's posts and these can be found on the Trading Made Simple" attachments section - always worth another read (sounds like a good start to the New Year actually ) - not going to replicate it here though.

I will continue with using Fractal breaks for re-entries / add-ons, and use these as part of my analysis / chart posts and training sessions. I was using them for some time before I found TMS
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #111
  • Jan 1, 2012 11:43am Jan 1, 2012 11:43am
Quoting willf
I think people are making up their own strategies as they go along here. The entry and exit rules are based on Eelfranz's original system here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=291622 only difference is we are using a daily time frame.
You are right. Please accept my apologies for any confusion caused through my sharing of a non standard exit in post #102 of this thread. In future I will stick to discussing only information that is according to the rules.
  • #112
  • Jan 1, 2012 12:12pm Jan 1, 2012 12:12pm
My goals for 2012 are to improve on last years averages:

Pips - Net Profit per month = 850

% Trade Accuracy = 75%

Pips - Win to Loss ratio = 3:1 (did achieve 4:1 in Nov)

From the trades taken in 2011, my top pairs traded were:

aus/usd
eu/aus
eu/usd
gbp/usd

Following all of the interventions from BOJ / SNB, i reduced my exposure to the jpy and chf.

From the 15 pairs on my watch list (see Post #1 screen shot) - I did not take any jpy trades, so I may drop gbp/jpy, although I still have a soft spot for eu/jpy - the chf pairs are only there in case something really good happens! As far as usd/cad is concerned - there's a reason it's called the Loonie!

In reality, it only takes a few minutes to check each chart to see if anything changed with regards to reversal patterns / pauses / fractal breaks, etc, so running with all available currencies is not a huge strain on the time resources, but I prefer to narrow the focus.

Strategies to perfect this year will be a hedging set-up on Day Charts with sympathetic pairs - I'll provide data as I flush out the backtesting and some forward testing.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #113
  • Jan 1, 2012 1:31pm Jan 1, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting Britpip7
From the 15 pairs on my watch list (see Post #1 screen shot) - I did not take any jpy trades, so I may drop gbp/jpy, although I still have a soft spot for eu/jpy
AUD/JPY has always been a favourite of mine. Some nice pips over the past 6 months or so
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  • #114
  • Jan 1, 2012 1:42pm Jan 1, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting willf
I think people are making up their own strategies as they go along here. The entry and exit rules are based on Eelfranz's original system here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=291622 only difference is we are using a daily time frame.
Yea - you are absolutely correct. I apologize. Got off track temporarily but will not let it impact future posts on TMS because I am a great believer in the eelfranz method - It is gonna work great on the Daily.
  • #115
  • Jan 1, 2012 2:28pm Jan 1, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting willf
AUD/JPY has always been a favourite of mine. Some nice pips over the past 6 months or so
Interestingly I always seem to end up on aud/usd - studying more on the 3 pairs (aud/usd, aud/jpy, nzd/usd) to see if there is anything different on the tdi / fractal signals that may give an edge
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: nzd usd 1-1.gif Size: 25 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #116
  • Jan 1, 2012 9:00pm Jan 1, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting willf
AUD/JPY has always been a favourite of mine. Some nice pips over the past 6 months or so

what have you got there on your charts and what settings ?
  • #117
  • Jan 2, 2012 2:08am Jan 2, 2012 2:08am
Entered three new demo trades.

Three other demo trades still open (Screenshot shows H1, but that's just for monitoring. All trades taken on D1).

Just noticed the bank holidays on the frontpage ..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Financial independence is what I live for
  • #118
  • Jan 2, 2012 2:56am Jan 2, 2012 2:56am
Hi to all,
for fractal-break on a daily chart you wait for close of the candle above/below the fractal or simply you wait for the price go above/below by some pips and put pending order?

if you put pending order how much distance from the fractal on the daily chart? 5 or 10 pips ?


thank you.


Andrea.
  • #119
  • Jan 2, 2012 3:06am Jan 2, 2012 3:06am
Quoting whatfx
what have you got there on your charts and what settings ?
Just the standard settings as per the original TMS method.

HA Candles
5 EMA (Typical HLC/3) Shift 3
TDI Indicator
Stochs 8,3,3

The TDI indicator is Xaphods version because I found it more reliable. They can all be found in the original thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=291622
  • #120
  • Jan 2, 2012 3:25am Jan 2, 2012 3:25am
Quoting willf
Just the standard settings as per the original TMS method.

HA Candles
5 EMA (Typical HLC/3) Shift 3
TDI Indicator
Stochs 8,3,3

The TDI indicator is Xaphods version because I found it more reliable. They can all be found in the original thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=291622
willf

can you please explain why do you think this TDI indicator is more reliable than the original TDI indicator of the TMS thread?

thank you
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